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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

It seems like they are nervous about Biden. But instead of supporting someone else, they are stepping in themselves. Which, if they make any headway (big if), could end up fracturing Biden's support.

Deval's launch seems a bit rushed, I wonder if he was trying to get in before Bloomberg.

Another way to say it is that they are worried about Warren/Sanders.
 
This. Some Dems are worried that on the present course of the campaign, Warren or Sanders will win the nomination and that either is too far left to win the general.

If they want to have a chance, they should support Mayor Pete and plan for a brokered convention. Someone like Patrick or Sherrod Brown could be the compromise candidate in a brokered event. They can't win a regular primary nomination.
 
If the Top 4 stay in through Super Tuesday and split 75% of each vote, it may be mathematically impossible for anyone to get a majority on the first ballot.

You raise an interesting point. If it becomes a 4 way horse race with 2 more centrist and 2 more left wing candidates, the chance there is a brokered convention increases. If we get to mid March in such a situation, I'd think there would be a temptation for both camps to enter into 2 merged teams with the 3rd and 4th place candidates becoming veeps for those teams.
 
If they want to have a chance, they should support Mayor Pete and plan for a brokered convention. Someone like Patrick or Sherrod Brown could be the compromise candidate in a brokered event. They can't win a regular primary nomination.

that would be a disaster for the 2020 race
 
It says everything about the Democratic party that there's complete disagreement about whether a center, liberal, or leftist is the right way to beat Donald Fucking Trump after a really shitty first term in an impeachment year.
 
Brown could win. Patrick would have much more trouble. Patrick's biggest asset would be having the entire Obama machine behind him.
 
that would be a disaster for the 2020 race

Yes. There’s no compromise candidate. Someone will win and others will have to suck it up for the good of this country.

People will get more used to the idea of a Sanders, Warren, or Pete presidency through the course of the process. Those who don’t will just stick with Biden. The fears about radical reform or a gay president will subside for most if they win.
 
It says everything about the Democratic party that there's complete disagreement about whether a center, liberal, or leftist is the right way to beat Donald Fucking Trump after a really shitty first term in an impeachment year.

Agreed. Organizing Dems is like herding cats with little idea where they are supposed to be or confidence how to get there. We should be able to run anybody and win against this white nationalist self-dealing trainwreck.

But it also says Dems are a big tent party that needs direction. It’s a big tent that provides shelter from the mess on the right.
 
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The new entrants and rumored entrants are worried about all 5 of the current front runners of the general election. The biggest fear is that none of the four leading candidates would beat Trump. That is a very legitimate concern. So perhaps new entrants changes the analysis, forces one of these top 4 to show more mettle, thereby increasing his/her odds against Trump. Or, maybe their perceived weaknesses are totally exposed as real weaknesses and one of the newbies saves the day.

The most shocking thing to me is the polling that reports that the Democrats are overwhelmingly pleased with the current pool of candidates. That is astounding and reflected in the fact that Trump is still the overwhelming favorite of anyone to win the election according to gambling websites and has been pretty much even money to do so until the impeachment process started. If he is impeached and not removed (a near certainty in my mind) he will quickly become an odds on favorite in my opinion if the field doesn't change.

Back to lurking.
 
Trump is the favorite because he’s the incumbent, will win his “primary,” and Republicans have an Electoral College advantage. Democrats aren’t even really campaigning in the swing states yet.
 
Trump is the favorite because he’s the incumbent, will win his “primary,” and Republicans have an Electoral College advantage. Democrats aren’t even really campaigning in the swing states yet.

yep just the pointless states that shouldn't and won't really matter like IA, SC and NH.
 
Yeah. It’s nice for every state to matter at some point in the process but Democrats need to lean into the EC and make the swing states mean more in the primary.
 
The new entrants and rumored entrants are worried about all 5 of the current front runners of the general election. The biggest fear is that none of the four leading candidates would beat Trump. That is a very legitimate concern. So perhaps new entrants changes the analysis, forces one of these top 4 to show more mettle, thereby increasing his/her odds against Trump. Or, maybe their perceived weaknesses are totally exposed as real weaknesses and one of the newbies saves the day.

The most shocking thing to me is the polling that reports that the Democrats are overwhelmingly pleased with the current pool of candidates. That is astounding and reflected in the fact that Trump is still the overwhelming favorite of anyone to win the election according to gambling websites and has been pretty much even money to do so until the impeachment process started. If he is impeached and not removed (a near certainty in my mind) he will quickly become an odds on favorite in my opinion if the field doesn't change.

Back to lurking.

Well for starters, gambling websites have a vested interest in putting Trump as the favorite because people will bet on him. Add in the fact that he's the only guaranteed person to be on the 2020 ballot and it makes sense that he has the best odds right now.

Also pretty much every head to head poll between Democratic candidates and Trump has shown at worst a dead heat and for most they have polling advantages over Trump. And that's without having the benefit of having all Democratic support behind them and inferior name recognition. Trump is only a favorite for the 2020 election for those that want to see it that way. That being said, there's still a lot that the Democrats have to do to actually win.
 
It says everything about the Democratic party that there's complete disagreement about whether a center, liberal, or leftist is the right way to beat Donald Fucking Trump after a really shitty first term in an impeachment year.

Says more about the solid and rabid 42% or so who watch Fox 24/7 and who can't wait to vote for Trump to stick it to the lubes after he's impeached. Look at the talking points from Fox and Breitbart after yesterday's testimony. Nunes tore Taylor apart, and the allegations against Trump are unclear.

https://electoral-vote.com/

Trump also changed the EC, giving the banana Pubs an advantage they didn't formerly have. OH & IA used to be true purple, but he made them solid red. That's 25 EVs. And he's more competitive in the midwest than traditional Pubs like Romney, Rubio or Cruz. In 2008, McCain was dead meat in both the popular vote and EC because of the economy and the Obama phenomenon. And in 2012, Romney never really stood a chance in the EC no matter how close he got in the popular vote, despite what Fox was claiming, because he just wasn't going to win anything in the upper midwest. Obama could have lost a FL and NV and still have had almost 300 EVs. I think the map is a little tougher next year for Trump, however, if he doesn't lose any southern states other than VA, he still only loses by a few EVs losing PA, WI & MI - at the same time as he is losing the popular vote by 5-7%. And if he picks off 1 of those upper midwest states, he wins.
 
Well for starters, gambling websites have a vested interest in putting Trump as the favorite because people will bet on him. Add in the fact that he's the only guaranteed person to be on the 2020 ballot and it makes sense that he has the best odds right now.

Also pretty much every head to head poll between Democratic candidates and Trump has shown at worst a dead heat and for most they have polling advantages over Trump. And that's without having the benefit of having all Democratic support behind them and inferior name recognition. Trump is only a favorite for the 2020 election for those that want to see it that way. That being said, there's still a lot that the Democrats have to do to actually win.

Political gambling sites aren't really banking on rube bets the way that regular sports gambling sites are banking on Dallas Cowboys bandwagonism. Different audience.

The issue is not that Trump has the best odds. Of course he does as the presumptive nominee and incumbent. It is that he has dramatically better odds than any Dem and even more importantly, he is pretty much an even money bet against the field. The fucker is corrupt, nearly his whole administration has been shown to be incompetent and/or has left in shame, the Democrats have been overperforming in both the midterms and one-off elections, and he is going through an impeachment process! Still even money. That is an indicator that the odds makers don't think the Dems have their shit together (accurate) and that the front runners for the nomination all have obvious, easy-marketing flaws (also accurate, as RJ has consistently pointed out in this thread). If the economy is still churning and one of the four front runners is the D nominee, Trump will be an overwhelming favorite next fall. And that is pitiful.

Praying that one of the late entries gets serious momentum quickly. Unlikely, however.
 
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Look, we can either be idiots and blame a solid field of democratic candidates with good ideas and plans, or we can be accurate and blame racist American rubes, state sponsored extreme right media, and our fucked up election system.
 
Political gambling sites aren't really banking on rube bets the way that regular sports gambling sites are banking on Dallas Cowboys bandwagonism. Different audience.

The issue is not that Trump has the best odds. Of course he does as the presumptive nominee and incumbent. It is that he has dramatically better odds than any Dem and even more importantly, he is pretty much an even money bet against the field. The fucker is corrupt, nearly his whole administration has been shown to be incompetent and/or has left in shame, the Democrats have been overperforming in both the midterms and one-off elections, and he is going through an impeachment process! Still even money. That is an indicator that the odds makers don't think the Dems have their shit together (accurate) and that the front runners for the nomination all have obvious, easy-marketing flaws (also accurate, as RJ has consistently pointed out in this thread). If the economy is still churning and one of the four front runners is the D nominee, Trump will be an overwhelming favorite next fall. And that is pitiful.

Praying that one of the late entries gets serious momentum quickly. Unlikely, however.

Are you lurking or not?
 
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