cville deac
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2011
- Messages
- 15,185
- Reaction score
- 900
Maybe New Hampshire is an ok indicator of beating trump, but winning a Dem primary in Iowa and/or South Carolina, two very red states that the eventual Dem nominee has almost no chance of winning in the fall, is pretty useless.
Really, it's all about a handful of states - PA, MI, WI, MN, VA, NH & NV, and maybe throw in AZ, NC & FL if the blue team is feeling frisky. Biden does the best job of widening the map because he polls best against Trump in reddish purple states - he's even led Trump in a couple of TX polls. Trouble is he hasn't run a good campaign, has gaffed as usual and of all the 70+ year olds he's shown his age the most. Warren and Buttigieg have run the best campaigns thus far, but I have questions about the electability of both. As a practical matter, Warren will likely be the nominee, and because I think she'll do well in the midwest, I think she can get to the 272-278 EV range, but that's the ceiling unless Trump or his red team successor is in complete disarray.
Yes, we are at the point in this country where the president has trashed the constitution and committed treason, but at worst he's gonna lose by 6-18 EVs and could win. Thank you Fox and Facebook.