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2020 Democratic Presidential Nominees

I don’t think so. I think he needs to win both to do that. He’s running on electability. Losing early would damage that.

If he wins either IA or NH, that validates his electability. He is running ahead of the more progressive candidates in the battleground state general election polls.

If he wins IA and NH? This race is over. I don't think that's going to happen.
 
Have there been any recent state general election polls?
 
I don’t think he wins either of those two. I’d be surprised at this point if Warren loses Iowa. Similarly I’d be surprised if Biden loses South Carolina
 
She’s really good at this. I wish she had run in 2016.
 
That is great. God I hate Zuckerberg.

Chris, why the confidence in Biden?
 
That is great. God I hate Zuckerberg.

Chris, why the confidence in Biden?

I don't have confidence in Biden. He has been quite lackluster so far.

But if he were to win Iowa and NH the race would be over. That would lead him right into Super Tuesday where he would build up a huge delegate lead that would be insurmountable.

I don't think this is going to happen by the way. It's possible however. He will be at worst 2nd in both states. People around here have a hard time discussing hypotheticals.

And the idea that an insider in his campaign would tell a conservative commentator that he is bailing on NH, IA and NV is just ridiculous.
 
I think the true story is that one person from the Biden campaign was just spouting off during a tough period and was trying to lower expectations and present a path forward after a hypothetical tough start.

We are discussing all kinds of hypotheticals here and we are even paid to do it.
 
I think the true story is that one person from the Biden campaign was just spouting off during a tough period and was trying to lower expectations and present a path forward after a hypothetical tough start.

We are discussing all kinds of hypotheticals here and we are even paid to do it.
Or much more plausibly it wasn't from the biden camp at all.
 
Electability is all about whether they will beat Trump. Winning a primary doesn’t tell you anything about that.

Ok. So are you against primaries in general? What method do you have to determining electability?
 
Ok. So are you against primaries in general? What method do you have to determining electability?

Of course not - primaries are necessary to pick a party candidate. But I don’t think everyone who votes in a primary is thinking about if the person can beat the other party’s nominee.

Head-to-head polling is the best measure of electability.
 
Maybe New Hampshire is an ok indicator of beating trump, but winning a Dem primary in Iowa and/or South Carolina, two very red states that the eventual Dem nominee has almost no chance of winning in the fall, is pretty useless.
 
Trumps not winning again no matter who the nominee is. The silent majority already got their tax cuts, now they want the world not to end
 
You all are thinking about voting as a choice between Dem nominee vs. Trump. The big issue for Dems is the choice between voting for the Dem nominee or not voting at all. The Dem primary is a very good way to determine who Dems are most likely to show up and vote for in November.

The red state primary argument is ridiculous. States denote location not the type of people. Iowa voters aren’t inherently different than voters in other states. Someone who can win in Iowa or SC can attract similar voters to who they do well with in other states. And voters in later primaries can use that information to determine who they support in their state. And of course red state primaries are the only way for Democrats in those states to cast a meaningful vote.
 
You all are thinking about voting as a choice between Dem nominee vs. Trump. The big issue for Dems is the choice between voting for the Dem nominee or not voting at all. The Dem primary is a very good way to determine who Dems are most likely to show up and vote for in November.

The red state primary argument is ridiculous. States denote location not the type of people. Iowa voters aren’t inherently different than voters in other states. Someone who can win in Iowa or SC can attract similar voters to who they do well with in other states. And voters in later primaries can use that information to determine who they support in their state. And of course red state primaries are the only way for Democrats in those states to cast a meaningful vote.

Primaries are an indirect measure of electability.

Head to head polling is a direct measure.

And LOL at saying voters aren’t different in different states.
 
Head to head polling isn’t direct. It’s a small sample of people that you’re trying to generalize from. Again, if voter turnout and excitement is the big issue, the primary addresses that. It’s pretty dumb to ask primary voters to choose who they think other people will show up to vote for instead of their favorite candidate.
 
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