PhDeac
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The problem with the polls in 2016 was that polls several days end before Election Day and Comey blew things wide open leading into an election.
The other issue is that there was a ebb and flow to the general election polling numbers. Hillary would get big leads that would close weeks later. Polling ended just as Hillary was losing a lead going into Election Day.
Another related factor is that Republicans have been notoriously effective at creating some fake or exaggerated story the peaks right before the election. Caravans, Ebola, whatever. Polling can’t count that.
In short, polling gives us an rough estimate of the electorate in the last week of October. The overall result could swing with contests in a few states polling right on the margin of error.
The other issue is that there was a ebb and flow to the general election polling numbers. Hillary would get big leads that would close weeks later. Polling ended just as Hillary was losing a lead going into Election Day.
Another related factor is that Republicans have been notoriously effective at creating some fake or exaggerated story the peaks right before the election. Caravans, Ebola, whatever. Polling can’t count that.
In short, polling gives us an rough estimate of the electorate in the last week of October. The overall result could swing with contests in a few states polling right on the margin of error.