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Trump 2020 Re-election Bid

PhDeac

PhDeac

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We can post about the Republican side of the 2020 Presidential race here.

[h=3]The Trump-GOP 2020 doomsday scenario[/h]
https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-...ces-86143c8b-9045-414d-b61a-80d67be9107a.html

In private conversations after the midterms, many top Republicans and Democrats said that President Trump seemed to be heading into his 2020 re-election race in a relatively strong position.
The big picture: They couldn't be more wrong. In fact, all the big trends are working against Trump and the GOP, based on factors that are hiding in plain sight. Despite the conventional wisdom, many people around Trump and in GOP leadership share this dim view.

Here are three factors that should worry Trump and the GOP:

  • The midterm results were actually a terrible leading indicator for him. Turns out that without Hillary atop the ticket, Midwest states like Wisconsin are tough for Trump, and Southern states with rising Hispanic populations are slowly growing more Democratic. Long term, the GOP should be freaking out about this.
  • Trump and the GOP face two years of public investigations, coming from three different and dangerous directions: Robert Mueller, the state of New York and Congress. Two years of probing hell await.
  • The prolonged recovery is on borrowed time, and a recession could well hit at the worst possible time for Trump — in the thick of the presidential race. Live by the markets, die by the markets.
 
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I fear a recession hitting while the dems have the house will be falsely, and successfully, blamed on Democrats.
 
Liquid Karma said:
I fear a recession hitting while the dems have the house will be falsely, and successfully, blamed on Democrats.
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That didn’t work in 2008. I hope it wouldn’t work now.
 
Trump pretty much threaded the eye of the needle in 2016 winning by negative 3 million popular vote. Since then he's antagonizing pretty much everybody except for his shrinking base. With two more years of demographic change going against him the odds indicate that he's pretty much screwed. Maybe he can thread the eye of the needle again?
 
[insert gif of Putin knitting]
 
BarcaDeac said:
never underestimate the rubes
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This. Every fucking prognostication about his chances has been wrong every fucking time. I'm fully resigned to another 6 years of Trump.
 
mako1331 said:
This. Every fucking prognostication about his chances has been wrong every fucking time. I'm fully resigned to another 6 years of Trump.
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All the 538 midterm projections were almost exactly on target. They predicted a medium pick-up of Democrats in the house of 39 which is almost exactly what it's going to be and they predicted a medium pick-up of Republicans in the Senate of about .7 and it's going to end up being between 0 and 1
 
ChrisL68 said:
All the 538 midterm projections were almost exactly on target. They predicted a medium pick-up of Democrats in the house of 39 which is almost exactly what it's going to be and they predicted a medium pick-up of Republicans in the Senate of about .7 and it's going to end up being between 0 and 1
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Yeah, and they didn't involve his direct election. Listen, I pray I'm wrong. But, to paraphrase John Oliver, that fucker has found a way to fail forward his entire life. I won't feel optimistic about anything until he officially is out of the white house.
 
Of the large segment of voters who hated both Trump and Hillary, 80% voted for Trump. Hopefully, the size of the segment will go down as the Democrats tell the Clintons to pound sand, and the 80%, IMO, was partially a backlash against the incumbent party, so that should come down a ways.

I fear a recession hitting while the dems have the house will be falsely, and successfully, blamed on Democrats.
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Some combination of this and a conspiracy to tank the markets to run him out of office, probably vaguely anti-Semetic in tone.
 
After two years of talking to Trump voters in rural PA about how much they love Trump, I read two articles before the midterm election that talked to Trump voters in rural PA who said they voted for Trump because they hated Hillary, and they were voting for Bob Casey because they liked him.

That doesn't mean they'll vote for whomever the Democrats nominate in 2020. But it was a nice break from the endless "Trump fans still like Trump!" profiles.
 
The media will strongly prefer Trump. He sells, particularly for liberal-leaning media. If the Democrats nominate someone who cannot move the needle significantly (even if not on a Trumpian level), Trump will be the strong favorite absent a serious recession and/or smoking gun evidence of malfeasance from the investigations.
 
The media created Trump, and now the media gets to constantly bitch about Trump. Pubs tune into Fox to reaffirm that Trump is Jesus. Libs tune into everything else to reaffirm that Trump is Hitler. Ratings go up, ad revenues go up, bullshit gets sold. It's a win/win for the rich, and nobody truly gives a shit about the non-rich, and the non-rich for the most part continue to vote like they don't give a shit about themselves.
 
If Trump wins his suit to destroy ACA and premiums go through the roof. There will be nothing he can do to win in 2020.

As opposed to the predictions of 2016, in 2018, Trump's Congressional candidates lost by over 7,000,000 votes. People are tiring of his schtick and his lies.

Further, it is highly unlikely that whomever the Dems run will have millions of people who viscerally detest him/her as they did for Hillary.

I don't think there is much question that polls are losing their accuracy due to the growing percentage of people that don't have landlines any longer.
 
RJKarl said:
If Trump wins his suit to destroy ACA and premiums go through the roof. There will be nothing he can do to win in 2020.

As opposed to the predictions of 2016, in 2018, Trump's Congressional candidates lost by over 7,000,000 votes. People are tiring of his schtick and his lies.

Further, it is highly unlikely that whomever the Dems run will have millions of people who viscerally detest him/her as they did for Hillary.

I don't think there is much question that polls are losing their accuracy due to the growing percentage of people that don't have landlines any longer.
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you seriously underestimate how many stupid people like donald trump
 
RJKarl said:
If Trump wins his suit to destroy ACA and premiums go through the roof. There will be nothing he can do to win in 2020.

As opposed to the predictions of 2016, in 2018, Trump's Congressional candidates lost by over 7,000,000 votes. People are tiring of his schtick and his lies.

Further, it is highly unlikely that whomever the Dems run will have millions of people who viscerally detest him/her as they did for Hillary.

I don't think there is much question that polls are losing their accuracy due to the growing percentage of people that don't have landlines any longer.
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Also, what about the general ineptitude and clusterfuckery of the Democratic Party over the last 5 years gives you any remote hope that they won't fuck this up again?
 
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