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2019 Deacon Football Preview Thread

ChrisL68 said:
I am really surprised to see so many meh predictions for Wake this year. Last year was the rebuilding year to me and we ended it winning 3 of 4 against pretty good teams.

This year seems to be the season that has potential to really be a big year.
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Exactly.
 
CL, the Vegas over/under for Wake is 7 games. That’s means Vegas thinks about half of bettors believe we will get 8 or more wins. That’s a breakout season.
 
PhDeac said:
CL, the Vegas over/under for Wake is 7 games. That’s means Vegas thinks about half of bettors believe we will get 8 or more wins. That’s a breakout season.
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Think that might've gone down, I've seen a few 5.5s recently, though with the juice heavily weighted toward the over (-145 over/+125 under)
 
Our schedule really helps IMO. Ideally set up to build momentum, hopefully will put us in a strong position going into a tough November
 
I see alot of 2-6 predictions which would be our worst conference record in 4 years when it seems like we are set up to me to have the potential for a very good year.
 
Remember the first year Clawson went bowling with the Deacs? Before the first game of that season of 2016 Clawson said we would go bowling (as if he was a coach at some state school). Wisely he has not verbally made that exact level of commitment since then. He qualifies these comments now. The low expectations from sports pundits reflects Wake Forest’s history in football. We have always been a dangerous selection for greatness in football.

Yet, WF has an Orange Bowl appearance due to an ACC Championship whereas State, Carolina and Duke do not. And they are selected for greatness much more frequently. It’s a phenomenon of Wake Forest to attract low expectations in most sports. Deacs can handle it and always have.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I am really surprised to see so many meh predictions for Wake this year. Last year was the rebuilding year to me and we ended it winning 3 of 4 against pretty good teams.

This year seems to be the season that has potential to really be a big year.
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It does have potential to be a really big year. So did last year.

All of these questions could be answered in August, but here are the hangups for me (I'll probably put this into story form in the next couple of weeks): Scotty Washington has to come back healthy. Zach Tom and whoever wins the LG spot have to fit in seamlessly, and because of who they're replacing (Haynes and Anderson), it's still almost guaranteed to be a drop off. Christian Beal-Smith or Courtney McKinney, or a wild card entry, has to step up as a No. 2 RB. As has been pointed out on here, they need at least two DTs to be ACC quality. Losing Miles Fox before he could get started sucked. They've gotta get production from the DE spot opposite Boogie -- whether that comes from McCollum or Manny Walker or JaCorey Johns doesn't matter, you've just gotta have more than one above-average pass-rusher in the ACC. And then in the back-7, you've basically gotta hope for a bunch of young players to fill the 4 spots that aren't Strnad, Bassey and Henderson (who also needs to stay healthy). Now, Smenda, Coby Davis, Masterson, Greer, J. Williams and Tra Redd have flashed on various levels, but either haven't done so on a consistent basis or will have to take on larger roles. Maybe some R-Fr. and Fr. can step into those roles. There's also the factor of fully transitioning to Hemphill's defense, more of a 4-2-5.

To me, that's plenty of cause for concern. I might be too close to the situation and this might be a 9-10 win team. But that's what I see on paper now.
 
CONeill said:
It does have potential to be a really big year. So did last year.

All of these questions could be answered in August, but here are the hangups for me (I'll probably put this into story form in the next couple of weeks): Scotty Washington has to come back healthy. Zach Tom and whoever wins the LG spot have to fit in seamlessly, and because of who they're replacing (Haynes and Anderson), it's still almost guaranteed to be a drop off. Christian Beal-Smith or Courtney McKinney, or a wild card entry, has to step up as a No. 2 RB. As has been pointed out on here, they need at least two DTs to be ACC quality. Losing Miles Fox before he could get started sucked. They've gotta get production from the DE spot opposite Boogie -- whether that comes from McCollum or Manny Walker or JaCorey Johns doesn't matter, you've just gotta have more than one above-average pass-rusher in the ACC. And then in the back-7, you've basically gotta hope for a bunch of young players to fill the 4 spots that aren't Strnad, Bassey and Henderson (who also needs to stay healthy). Now, Smenda, Coby Davis, Masterson, Greer, J. Williams and Tra Redd have flashed on various levels, but either haven't done so on a consistent basis or will have to take on larger roles. Maybe some R-Fr. and Fr. can step into those roles. There's also the factor of fully transitioning to Hemphill's defense, more of a 4-2-5.

To me, that's plenty of cause for concern. I might be too close to the situation and this might be a 9-10 win team. But that's what I see on paper now.
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You bring up some great points and a lot of “if this happens.” Agree with you on many of your points especially relating to the likely drop off on the OL, lack of proven DT’s and depth at that position, and concerns in the back 7. I know we are getting back some players in the secondary and LB from injury, but still a huge concern given the poor performance last year in the secondary. I would have to think we can only get better in the secondary however. I think Beal will step it up as the RB2, and not really concerned with the WR position given the talent/depth we have. I’m more worried about the OL. Also believe DE position will be fine, but the DT is my concern.

I guess overall, given all the “if this happens” scenarios, I’d give us a 6-8 range win season. If all the “if this happens” scenarios fall in our favor, 10 wins is not out of the question.
 
Agree mostly with your concerns, Connor.

But I may be more optimistic regarding the back 7, being that 2 of the 7 are on your first team all-acc team.
Clawson mentions that a players biggest jump is from year 1 on the field to year 2.

That means Smenda, Greer (who is already a stud), and theoretically C. Davis will all be in year 2. Henderson is a solid CB2 when healthy. Greer should fill in well for the loss of Glenn and anchor the safety group while the other players vying to fill for Wade (a converted WR) are true defensive players (Masterson, Hardimon, Davis).

ETA: Conor*
 
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DeacsOrDie is on to something. He believes in the strength of WF’s development program much more than the sportswriters. I agree our “unproven” players will surprise to the upside.

If Deacs go 8-4 or 9-3 will that mean the current sportswriters’ forecasts of rankings was wrong when made? Maybe not, but in such event Clawson & Co. should get more than a passing thumbs up from the same forecasters who may turn out to have been too conservative.

With these lower expectations abounding Coach Clawson has much to prove. And that’s good.
 
PhDeac said:
CL, the Vegas over/under for Wake is 7 games. That’s means Vegas thinks about half of bettors believe we will get 8 or more wins. That’s a breakout season.
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ACC is very down and we have only 1 great team in Clemson. Our next best ranked team is either Syracuse or Miami in the Top 25 at around 23 or 24. That said, we have 11 winnable games on our schedule. Will we win those 11? No but 7-5 or 8-4 is not out of the question if we stay healthy and the defense comes around. Plus O-line must gel and protect well.
 
To give a different perspective from a newsletter point of view, here is how they see us on a position by position basis. They give up to a -3 or +3 at each position
all the way thru 130 NCAA D1 teams. Positions being: INT [intangibles] Wake's numbers are as such from last season's roster:
QB---RB---WR---OL---DL---LB---DB--ST's---CCH---INT---total
1 -0.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 1.5 1 -1 0 0 -2.5 ranking us #89
 
Reff, I agree with you. We could be 11-1 or 1-11. I'll admit we will probably beat Rice as well as Elon, so 2-10. What gave me hope was the state game last year. Clawson won a game we had little chance of winning going in. Nationally ranked team, ESPN Thursday night in Carter-Finley, coming off a bad loss at home to 'cuse. We found secret formula that Grobe had from '06-'08. It's possible that we beat F$U, State and the 'holes, then lose to BC, Duke, and USU. Can't wait to see how this turns out.
 
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DEACS76 said:
Reff, I agree with you. We could be 11-1 or 1-11. I'll admit we will probably beat Rice as well as Elon, so 2-10. What gave me hope was the state game last year. Clawson won a game we had little chance of winning going in. Nationally ranked team, ESPN Thursday night in Carter-Finley, coming off a bad loss at home to 'cuse. We found secret formula that Grobe had from '06-'08. It's possible that we beat F$U, State and the 'holes, then lose to BC, Duke, and USU. Can't wait to see how this turns out.
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Interesting to note in Conor's article the other day leading up to this week's ACC media days, he listed his way he is going to vote for the pre-season ACC rankings and he puts us ahead of NC State who is just ahead of last place Louisville. He says the Pack has lost a lot of firepower at QB, RB & WR--Finley, a 1000 yd rusher & two 1000 yd receivers. They have two new co-OC's also. Could this be a year we take a 3rd straight win over the Pack?!
 
By the time we play them they'll have things figured out. I'm glad that we're playing the 'hole early for that reason. They won't have things figured out yet.
 
Wouldn't be summertime on the boards without the usual cohort predicting a "breakout" season for WF football.

This is Wake we're talking about, so the question as always is whether the potential will translate to results. I thought we had great "potential" to beat Notre Dame last year and instead we lost badly to a backup QB. i thought we had potential to be moderately competitive with Clemson and instead we got obliterated by 60 points.

Seven wins seems about right. If we catch a lot of breaks I could see eight-plus. We'll inevitably lose a game or two (or three) that we shouldn't.
 
inspectah said:
Wouldn't be summertime on the boards without the usual cohort predicting a "breakout" season for WF football.

This is Wake we're talking about, so the question as always is whether the potential will translate to results. I thought we had great "potential" to beat Notre Dame last year and instead we lost badly to a backup QB. i thought we had potential to be moderately competitive with Clemson and instead we got obliterated by 60 points.

Seven wins seems about right. If we catch a lot of breaks I could see eight-plus. We'll inevitably lose a game or two (or three) that we shouldn't.
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Agree that most times for us that we're always looking at potential since we are mainly a player development type of team so if we miss a bunch on the trail then it will not be great. I thought the same thing going into the Notre Dame game at the time, though I think it could be said that it's a little misleading now to call Book a backup QB when he became the starter and took them to the CFP (similar to Newman being the "backup QB"). Clemson beat the crap out of Alabama. We played them in the second game after firing our DC as Hemphill is trying to fill the gaps in the mean time. So I'd toss that one out as a throw away game along the learning curve.
 
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