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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

CharlotteDeac1

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As I said, here's a little breakdown of a few different aspects of possible coaching candidates. I can add more if there are legitimate requests for them.

I'm putting recruiting in the original reviews but that'll be the only update unless there are new commitments (I'll specify who was recruited by the head coaching candidate, but will include total rankings assuming he'd bring his staff).


DANNY MANNING

Experience: Assistant at Kansas '06-'12, Head Coach at Tulsa '12-'14

Kenpom while at Tulsa:
2013: 181st overall ranking. 226th in adjO; 131st in adjD; 168th in eFG%, 149th in 2PFG, 217th in 3PFG. Defensive Fingerprint listed as "some zone" - did not defend the three well.
Team's experience was 1.21 years. Best win was #114 UTEP away, worst loss was #220 Arkansas Little Rock away.
2014: 82nd overall ranking. 159th in adjO, 52nd in adjD; 188th in eFG%, 140th in 2PFG, 243rd in 3PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - they did not defend the three well.
Team's experience was 1.33 years. Best win was against #37 Louisiana Tech to win the conference championship, worst loss was to #212 TCU twice.

Recruiting: Kind of confused by 247's listing of Tulsa's commits during Danny's years, since it lists Frank Hait as the head coach for those years. He was a big part of Kansas' recruiting efforts, though.


Steve Prohm

Background: Tualne assistant, Murray State assistant, Murray State HC, Iowa State HC. 170-71 overall record.4-3 NCAA tourney.

Kenpom rankings at Iowa State (2016-2019 current):
2016: 20 overall ranking; 7th in adjO; 91 in adjD; 5th in eFG%, 21st in 3PFG and 4th in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as inconclusive - defended the three well.
This team's experience was 2.43 years. Worst loss was to #23 Texas away in OT. Best win was #3 Kansas at home. Was a 4 seed - lost to Virginia in the sweet sixteen.
2017: 17 over ranking; 11th in adjO; 42nd in ajdD; 24th in eFG%, 12th in 3PfG and 72nd in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as inconclusive - defended the three slightly above average.
This team's experience was 2.53 years. Worst loss was to #71 Iowa away. Best win was #6 Kansas away in OT. Was a 5 seed in the NCAAT - lost to Purdue in the round of 32.
2018: 103 overall ranking. 81st in adjO; 143rd in adjD; 205 EFG%, 121 3PFG, 253 2PFG. Defensive Fingerprint is "some zone" - defended the three well.
This team's experience was 1.48 years. Worst loss was #196 Milwaukee at home. Best win was #11 Texas Tech at home.
2019 so far: 17 over ranking; 16th in adjO; 23rd in adjD; 101 in eFG%, 172 in 3PFG, 54th in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint is "some zone" - defends the three well.
This team's experience is 1.38 years. Has only lost to #56 Arizona (by 5) so far. Best win to date is #70 SDSU by 20. Both these games were on a neutral court.
Recruiting:
2016: 37th national rank. one 4 star (124), three 3 stars (JUCO #9, 143 & 232)
2017: 56th national rank. two 4 stars (35 & 119)
2018: 28th national rank. two 4 stars (57 & 126), two 3 stars (173 & 326)
2019: 62nd National rank. three 3 stars (202, 300, & 339)



Nate Oats

Background: Jumped from Romulus HS head coach to assistant at Buffalo 13-15, and was promoted to HC at Buffalo in 2015. 69-39 overall record. 1-2 NCAA Tourney.

Kenpom Rankings at Buffalo 2016-2019:
2016: 138 overall ranking. 158th in adjO; 134th in adjD; 189th in eFG%, 221 in 3PFG, 161 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - they defended the three above average.
This team's experience was 1.45 years. Worst loss was #247 Miami of Ohio at home. Best win was #88 Akron in the conference championship. Narrowly lost to Miami (by 7) in the NCAAT.
2017: 122 overall ranking. 153rd in adjO; 114th in adjD; 140 in eFG%, 262 in 3PFG, 87 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - average at defending the three.
This team's experience was 1.7 years. Worst loss was #279 Miami of Ohio away (by 1). Best win was #105 Ohio by 4 away.
2018: 67 overall ranking. 34th in adjO; 135th in adjD; 29th in eFG%, 75 in 3PFG, 39 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three very well.
This team's experience was 1.78 years. Worst loss was #249 Northern Illinois away (by 2 in OT). Best win was #28 Arizona in the NCAAT. Won the MAC Championship. Narrowly lost to #4 Cincinnati early season by 6 on a neutral court.
2019 so far: 40 overall ranking. 40th in adjO; 54th in adjD; 112 in eFG%, 208 in 3PFG, 45 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - has defended the three extremely well so far.
This team's experience is 2.09 years. Has not lost yet this season. Best win is #28 West Virginia away (by 5 in OT).
Recruiting:
2016: 100 national rank. two 3 stars (268 & 271), one unrated
2017: 89 national rank. one 4 star (#2 JUCO transfer), one 3 star (461)
2018: 77 national rank. one 4 star (131), one 3 star (233), one unrated CC transfer
2019: 158 onverall rank. three 2 star JUCO transfers, one unrated JUCO transfer,



Earl Grant

Background: Assistant at Citadel, Assistant at Winthrop, Assistant at Wichita State, Assistant at Clemson, College of Charleston HC. 80-56 overall. 0-1 NCAAT.

Kenpom at College of Charleston 2014-2019:
2015: 279 overall ranking. 309 adjO. 185 adjD; 297 eFG%, 173 3PFG, 320 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint "mostly man" - defended the three poorly.
This team;s experience was 1.25 years. No significant wins or losses. They were not good this year.
2016: 122 overall ranking. 288th in adjO; 20th in adjD; 279th in eFG%, 206 in 3PFG, 290 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three extremely well.
Team's experience was .98 years Worst loss was #275 Delaware away (by 3). Best win was #81 LSU at home by 12.
2017: 89 overall ranking. 142nd in adjO; 66th in adjD; 223 in eFG%, 256 in 3PFG, 181 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three extremely well.
Team's experience was 1.17 years. Worst loss was to #172 LSU by 10 away. Best win was #59 UNCW away. 5-seed in the NIT, lost in the first round to Colorado State.
2018: 115 overall ranking. 105th in adjO. 149th in adjD. 94th in eFG%, 110 in 3PFG, 86 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as mostly man - defended the three okay.
This team's experience was 2.09 years. Worst loss was to #325 Cal Poly on a neutral court. Best win was #96 Northeastern (three separate times). Won the Colonial Championship and lost to Auburn in the first round of the NCAAT.
2019 so far: 104 overall ranking. 113th in adjO; 92nd in adjD; 221 in eFG%, 321 in 3PFG, 76 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "inconclusive" - defends the three pretty well.
This team's experience is 1.55 years. No bad losses yet, sits at 5-2.
Recruiting:
Pretty much all two stars (on Verbal Commits - so likely unrated). No rankings that I can find.



Wes Miller:

Background: assistant at Elon, High Point, and UNCG for one year each, has been the head coach of UNCG since 2011.

Kenpom rankings at UNCG:
UNCG was really bad until 2017, so 2012-2016. I'm not going to list all the stats because of how shitty it was... I don't think you want to see them either.
2017: 121 overall ranking. 113th in adjO; 173rd in adjD; 86th in eFG%, 79 in 3PFG, 126 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as inconclusive - bad at defending the three.
This team's experience was 1.62 years. Worst loss was #270 High Point by 6 away. Best win was #67 ETSU away by 4. Lost the SOCON champ game to ETSU, Lost in the first round of the NIT to Cuse.
2018: 82 overall ranking. 174th in adjO; 26th in adjD; 139 in eFG%, 167 in 3PFG, 132 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three extremely well.
This team's age was 1.78 years. Worst loss was to #334 Presby away by 2. Best win was #46 NCSU away by 5. Won the SOCON tourney, lost to Gonzaga in the round of 64 in the NCAAT.
2019: 66 overall ranking. 63rd in adjO; 85th in adjD; 9th in eFG%,101 in 3PFG, 4 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - has defended the three incredibly poorly so far.
this team's experience is 1.93 years. There have been no surprise wins or losses yet this season, as they sit at 7-1 with only a loss to #48 LSU.
Recruiting:
2012-2017 N/A on 247
2018: 131 overall ranking, one 3 star (293), one NR.
2019: 69 (nice) overall ranking, two 3 stars (225 & 227, Langley twins).



Pat Kelsey

Background: Director of Basketball Ops at Wake Forest, Assistant coach at Wake Forest, Associate HC at Xavier, Head Coach at Winthrop

Kenpom rankings at Winthrop:
2013: 278 overall ranking; 291st in adjO; 245th in adjD; 258th in eFG%, 277 in 3PFG, 221 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "inconclusive" - defended the three well.
Team's experience was 1.75 years. Lost to NR Brevard and Lenoir Rhyne bad at home. Best win was at home against #179 Charleston Southern.
2014: 229 over ranking. 210th in adjO; 241 in adjD; 111th in eFG%, 13th in 3PFG (39.3%, wow), 272 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - did not defend the three well.
Team's experience listed as 1.65 years. Worst loss was #256 Radford. Best win was #167 USC Upstate and made a run in the Big South Conference Tourney.
2015: 276 overall ranking. 166th in adjO; 191st in adjD; 88th in eFG%, 111th in 3PFG, 102 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three well.
Team experience was 1.58 years. Worst loss was to 339 Savannah State at home. Best win was #84 Clemson away.
2016: 157 overall ranking. 107th in adjO; 228 in adjD; 27th in eFG%, 88th in 3PFG, 22nd in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three very well.
Team experience was 1.69 years. Worst loss was to #297 Campbell at home. Best win was against #171 UNC Asheville at home.
2017: 113 overall ranking.144th in adjO; 103rd in adjD; 54th in eFG%, 51st in 3PFG, 107 in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three very well.
Team's experience was 2.21 years. Worst loss was to #296 Radford at home. Best win was against #66 Illinois away. Won the Big South Tournament and lost to Butler as a 13 seed in the first round of the NCAA tourney.
2018: 160 overall ranking. 148th in adjO; 176th in adjD; 33rd in eFG%, 99th in 3PFG, 31st in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defended the three slightly above average.
Team's experience was 1.92 years. Worst loss was #246 Charleston Southern at home to end the season. Best win was #95 Furman away (by 19).
2019: 166 overall ranking so far. 159th in adjO; 183rd in adjD; 35th in eFG%, 62nd in 3PFG, 79th in 2PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - defends the three pretty well.
Team's experience is 2.10 years. No shockers so far. Lost to ETSU at home (#122) by 2 and lost to Kentucky at their place by 13.

Recruiting:
There is extremely limited info on recruiting at Winthrop... but Xavier consistently landed good 4-star while he was associate head coach. Good assumption to make that he had a lot to do with that.



Ryan Odom

Background: Assistant at Furman, assistant at UNC Asheville, assistant at American, Assistant at Virginia Tech, Assistant/Associate head coach at Charlotte, Interm HC at Charlotte, Head Coach lenoir Rhyne, Head coach UMBC.

Kenpom Rankings at UMBC:
2017: 201 overall ranking. 108th in adjO; 297 in adjD; 41st in eFG%, 31st in 3PFG, 86th in 2PFG. Defensive Fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - they did not defend the three well.
Team's experience is 1.75 years. Their best win was #204 Fairfield. Their worst loss was #334 Hartford at home.
2018: 166 overall ranking. 206th in adjO; 124th in adjD; 114th in eFG%, 40th in 3PFG, 244th in 2PFG. Defensive Fingerprint listed as "Inconclusive" - they were pretty average at defending the three.
Team's exerience was 1.96 years. Best win was #2 Virginia in the first round of the NCAA Tourney, narrowly lost to K-State in the second round. Worst loss was to #264 Army.
2019: 214 overall ranking. 302nd in adjO; 126th in adjD; 294th in aFG%, 261st in 3PFG, 277th in 2PFG. Defensive Fingerprint listed as "Inconclusive" - They have defended the three very well so far.
Team's experience is 1.82 years. Worst loss was to #178 American at home by 4. Best win is #212 High Point on a neutral floor.

Recruiting: There's not really any information I can find at a quick glance as to how his recruiting efforts compare. Having been an assistant at some bigger schools, though, it's safe to assume he has some decent experience.



Lavall Jordan

Experience:: Assistant at Butler '03-'07, Assistant at Iowa '07-'10, Assistant at Michigan '10-'16, Head Coach at Milwaukee '16-'17, Head coach at Butler '17-present.

Kenpom Rankings while at Milwaukee and Butler:
2017: (Milwaukee) 259 overall ranking. 261st in adjO; 244th in adjD; 165th in eFG%, 157th in 2PFG, 171st in 3PFG. Defensive fingerprint is listed as "inconclusive" - did not defense the three well.
Experience was 1.20 years. Best win was #104 Valparaiso in the conference tournament, worst loss was #302 Detroit at home.
2018: (Butler) 20th overall ranking. 22nd in adjO; 45th in adjD; 54th in eFG%, 38th in 2PFG, 130th in 3PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - they defended the three very poorly.
team's experience was 1.68 years. Best win was against #1 Villanova at home, worst loss was #93 Georgetown at home.
2019: 26th overall ranking. 22nd in adjO; 43rd in adJD; 36th in eFG%, 56th in 2PFG, 77th in 3PFG. Defensive fingerprint listed as "mostly man" - they have defended the three well so far this year.
Team's experience is listed as 1.94 years. Best win so far was #22 Florida on a neutral floor, worst loss was to Dayton on a neutral floor.

Recruiting:
His 2017 class was meh, with some high-end three stars and a couple middle of the pack three stars. Overall ranking was 62, while being 9th in the Big East.
His 2018 recruiting class at Butler was not good, with two three stars totaling a 103rd overall ranking and 9th in the Big East.
His 2019 recruiting features a top-100 SG and a low-200's center, combining for a 58 overall ranking and 4th in the Big East currently.
His bad recruiting is pretty surprising to me considering his time as an assistant at large programs. He'd still likely be near the top of my list, though.
EDIT: He was the lead recruiter for PG Zavier Simpson at Michigan, #67 overall prospect.
 
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I voted for Earl last year (not that it means a damn thing). Too bad he signed an extension with CofC. He would be my guy.
 
Extensions are virtually toilet paper. And the further down the level of the team, the weaker they usually are to break.
 
From Manning apologist to creator of Manning replacement thread in just a couple weeks. Well done!
 
Wes and Earl are the best bets

Yes.

Following those 2 closely. Wes' team won 111-33 last night. LOL. Love the up tempo play. Plus, even though he is 5'9/160 pounds, he's a fox hole dude, he has his team BURY a D-III or whatever opponent by 80 freaking points. You need a SYSTEM (Smith/Williams) to have your second and third team (walk-on) guys extend a 40 point lead to 80, even against a bad team. We seem to lack an offensive system. Defense is unclear.

Very much a Smith/Williams disciple, which means we would run and score. Galloway is a player - would love to have him. Played LSU close, and we shall see how they do Saturday at Kentucky. That could be very interesting to watch the natives get restless when UK is down in the second half.

Grant: his best player, senior leader, helps them win the conference tournament in overtime LY, and has high ankle sprain with 1:00 to go. Useless vs. Auburn in 1st Rd NCAA, a game they lost on a very controversial non-call at the buzzer. This year, SG Riller averaging 32 PPG over his last 2; Brantley is a double-double machine. Either would upgrade our roster immediately.

They played Dave Odom ball in their 2 losses - could not score 60 points, made a couple of cheesy late buckets to get to 57-58 pts. Love the defense, discipline, lack of turnovers. Love the novel concept of WINNING (see: Odom/Prosser/Gaudio): they have the nations second longest home winning streak. Do not love 55 point games.
 
John Pelphrey is rested and ready. :couch:

Pilch going old school. I'm trying to remember. Wasn't Deacman pushing Pelphrey back when we hired Prosser after Odom's contract was allowed to expire?

I gotta admit I kinda liked the Manning hire at the time. I had wanted to open the brinks truck for Shaka or Marshall. Absent that, I liked Archie Miller. I didn't have Manning too far below that - think he was in my 4-6 range. What I can't believe is that Danny's teams have looked as utterly lost on D as Buzzdick's teams did. The other thing I can't believe is that Gregg Marshall is still at Wichita after a decade or so. My biggest fear is that, when it comes time to replace Roy, UNC will realize they do not have a qualified family candidate and will nab Marshall. Or if Duke realizes the same thing when it comes time to replace Relationships. UNC already made that mistake once and may be wiser this time around. I'm thinking Duke is the more likely of the 2 to make a mistake and go with a less qualified family candidate.
 
K will pick his successor. Think/hope it will go poorly.

Agree that with Dean dead, and given the Doherty disaster, UNC will not feel as constrained to select someone from the family. Also, there aren't any obvious UNC connected candidates. That said, can't see UNC going for Gregg Marshall. Too acerbic. Could see UNC checking in with Brad Stevens to gauge if the NBA still floats his boat. If Edwards is not intrigued, UNC would be coveted by every hot college coach at that time.
 
Wes and Earl are the best bets

Nah. It's Oats. Great HS coaching pedigree, teams play an exciting style that recruits will wanna play, decisively won an NCAAT game, has freakin' Buffalo in the top 25. Someone's gonna get a winner in this dude, hope it's us
 
Yes.

Following those 2 closely. Wes' team won 111-33 last night. LOL. Love the up tempo play. Plus, even though he is 5'9/160 pounds, he's a fox hole dude, he has his team BURY a D-III or whatever opponent by 80 freaking points. You need a SYSTEM (Smith/Williams) to have your second and third team (walk-on) guys extend a 40 point lead to 80, even against a bad team. We seem to lack an offensive system. Defense is unclear.

Very much a Smith/Williams disciple, which means we would run and score. Galloway is a player - would love to have him. Played LSU close, and we shall see how they do Saturday at Kentucky. That could be very interesting to watch the natives get restless when UK is down in the second half.

Grant: his best player, senior leader, helps them win the conference tournament in overtime LY, and has high ankle sprain with 1:00 to go. Useless vs. Auburn in 1st Rd NCAA, a game they lost on a very controversial non-call at the buzzer. This year, SG Riller averaging 32 PPG over his last 2; Brantley is a double-double machine. Either would upgrade our roster immediately.

They played Dave Odom ball in their 2 losses - could not score 60 points, made a couple of cheesy late buckets to get to 57-58 pts. Love the defense, discipline, lack of turnovers. Love the novel concept of WINNING (see: Odom/Prosser/Gaudio): they have the nations second longest home winning streak. Do not love 55 point games.

I've grown to love games in the 50s, though it does depend as to how you get there. I enjoy the way UVA gets there with smothering defense, but they also have been solid for several years now in executing their half court offenses. While I liked Odom in the 1990s, his last few teams were extremely challenged on the offensive end, and his recruiting had fallen a bit. Most of us agreed it was time for him to go at that time. Dino's teams, like Odom's and Bennett's, played really good D, but were offensively challenged. Part of that was scheme, but part was also due to not having a player who could throw it in the ocean if Teague was off. I would urge folks not to consider tempo as a reason to or not to hire a coach. You can win playing up-tempo if you're WVU with Huggins or if you're committed to halfcourt like UVA with Bennett. The 2 most important things are recruiting and FG%D/PPPD. If you get enough 3&4*s and can hold opponents to .9 or under PPPD, you're going to win a lot of games.
 
Nah. It's Oats. Great HS coaching pedigree, teams play an exciting style that recruits will wanna play, decisively won an NCAAT game, has freakin' Buffalo in the top 25. Someone's gonna get a winner in this dude, hope it's us
Sure but Oats has zero connections to the southeast, let alone the ACC or Wake

Not that those are requisites, but just seems like a longer shot than one guy down the road with his last name on a building and another coach a few hours away with deep ACC roots
 
Playing games in the 50s and 60s gives inferior teams a greater chance to beat you. Each mistake your team makes has far more impact. It's why Bennett's teams under perform their seeding in The Dance year-after-year.
 
Sure but Oats has zero connections to the southeast, let alone the ACC or Wake

Not that those are requisites, but just seems like a longer shot than one guy down the road with his last name on a building and another coach a few hours away with deep ACC roots

Did Skip have any ties?

I don't care about connections to the school. It's lazy thinking. Miller is a good coach but he's not the best guy out there
 
Xavier was and is a much, much better program than UNC-G. He had recruited players (like David West) that we were after and had sent players to the NBA. Wes has done neither of those things.
 
K will pick his successor. Think/hope it will go poorly.

Agree that with Dean dead, and given the Doherty disaster, UNC will not feel as constrained to select someone from the family. Also, there aren't any obvious UNC connected candidates. That said, can't see UNC going for Gregg Marshall. Too acerbic. Could see UNC checking in with Brad Stevens to gauge if the NBA still floats his boat. If Edwards is not intrigued, UNC would be coveted by every hot college coach at that time.

William John Donovan Jr.

I think that is who will replace Roy.
 
unc and duke would be really stupid if Brad Stevens wasn't their first call. I really doubt he ever leaves the NBA though.
 
If the Goodman info is true, might as well shut this thread down.
 
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