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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Wakeforest22890 said:
I think the best guess on the $18 million is that the total value of Danny's contract through 2025 plus all potential incentives is in the ballpark of $18 million. I also think there's a decent portion of that which is guaranteed with a chance that it would all be guaranteed if incentives were hit. Given that it's not likely (m)any incentives were hit, if we wanna can him I'd say it's around 8 digits still to get out of the rest of the contract. Of course these things can always be negotiated.
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If it is really an 8-digit buyout, Wellman should be fired. Of course, he should be fired if it is an $8.00 buyout.
 
greekdeac2011 said:
I like the idea of Kelsey, but I'd only target him if we strike out with bigger names. We are at a period where another bad hire may sink the basketball program forever. And Kelsey hasn't lit the world on fire at Winthrop, but he has been more successful than redacted and Manning were at their previous jobs, so there's that.
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I've been a big Kelsey promoter on here, but I agree with targeting him after going after bigger names. Like Thad Matta or someone that big. I just don't see the benefit of a random hot mid-major coach instead of Kelsey. I'm not sure what lighting the world on fire means, but he has turned around that program after 4 years of terrible basketball and he's near the top of their league every year now. I don't think Coach Clawson lit the world on fire either. But you could see the intangibles and the trajectory at his prior spots. I think I see that from Kelsey. Plus check out his Twitter account...that kind of enthusiasm is what we need after these past 9 years. Please, unless it is a home run hire, please don't let this be a recently hot mid-major coach who is boring as hell. Please no. We need energy.

https://twitter.com/patkelsey/status/1088447503157014528?s=19

https://twitter.com/Winthrop_MBB/status/1088261357596753922?s=19
 
The problem with Kelsey is that, but for the WF connection, he would have no shot at the WF job, or any other Power 6 job because Winthrop is a low level D-1 school in a low level conference.

In spite of the success that Calapari had there a long time ago, UMASS (the job that Kelsey accepted and then reversed course) is a mid-major job, and that would be the next step for Kelsey not WF. Outside of the MEAC, the Big South is the dregs of D-1 basketball in this region. Just not sure how much credit Kelsey should get for finishing in the top half of a conference with Longwood, USC Upstate and High Point. As an example, Wintrop has 17 wins this year (17-9 record). Here is the breakdown:

- 3 wins against non-D 1 schools Pfeiffer, Hiwassee and Warren Wilson
- 6 wins against schools ranked 300 or below
- 5 wins against schools ranked between 200 and 300
- 3 wins against schools ranked between 181 and 200

0-6 against schools ranked better than 181. Just not sure how meaningful a 17-9 record is against that schedule.
 
Pilchard said:
The problem with Kelsey is that, but for the WF connection, he would have no shot at the WF job, or any other Power 6 job because Winthrop is a low level D-1 school in a low level conference.

In spite of the success that Calapari had there a long time ago, UMASS (the job that Kelsey accepted and then reversed course) is a mid-major job, and that would be the next step for Kelsey not WF. Outside of the MEAC, the Big South is the dregs of D-1 basketball in this region. Just not sure how much credit Kelsey should get for finishing in the top half of a conference with Longwood, USC Upstate and High Point. As an example, Wintrop has 17 wins this year (17-9 record). Here is the breakdown:

- 3 wins against non-D 1 schools Pfeiffer, Hiwassee and Warren Wilson
- 6 wins against schools ranked 300 or below
- 5 wins against schools ranked between 200 and 300
- 3 wins against schools ranked between 181 and 200

0-6 against schools ranked better than 181. Just not sure how meaningful a 17-9 record is against that schedule.
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But he has ENTHUSIASM!!!!
 
Pilchard said:
The problem with Kelsey is that, but for the WF connection, he would have no shot at the WF job, or any other Power 6 job because Winthrop is a low level D-1 school in a low level conference.

In spite of the success that Calapari had there a long time ago, UMASS (the job that Kelsey accepted and then reversed course) is a mid-major job, and that would be the next step for Kelsey not WF. Outside of the MEAC, the Big South is the dregs of D-1 basketball in this region. Just not sure how much credit Kelsey should get for finishing in the top half of a conference with Longwood, USC Upstate and High Point. As an example, Wintrop has 17 wins this year (17-9 record). Here is the breakdown:

- 3 wins against non-D 1 schools Pfeiffer, Hiwassee and Warren Wilson
- 6 wins against schools ranked 300 or below
- 5 wins against schools ranked between 200 and 300
- 3 wins against schools ranked between 181 and 200

0-6 against schools ranked better than 181. Just not sure how meaningful a 17-9 record is against that schedule.
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This is good analysis on it's surface, but it doesn't fully make sense to me in evaluating him as a candidate. He coaches in a shitty league, agreed. That skews the data here. Look how they played at FSU and Kentucky this year.

Here's what I don't get...assistants become head coaches immediately, with no HC experience, and succeed. Right? Like Mack or Wojo, for example. That could've been Kelsey's path but instead he took an HC job and has succeeded in that role. And that now precludes him from a move to a big chair? But if he stayed as an assistant and had zero HC experience he'd be viable? That make little sense to me.

And the idea that he has no chance at a Power 6 job is ridiculous. A quick search finds Kelsey's name was batted around during the Georgia, Ohio State, and Butler openings recently. Certainly connecting him to Wake is then reasonable...Prosser connection or not.

And yes, he's enthusiastic...among many other attributes I've shared several times.
 
Deacs9394 said:
This is good analysis on it's surface, but it doesn't fully make sense to me in evaluating him as a candidate. He coaches in a shitty league, agreed. That skews the data here. Look how they played at FSU and Kentucky this year.

Here's what I don't get...assistants become head coaches immediately, with no HC experience, and succeed. Right? Like Mack or Wojo, for example. That could've been Kelsey's path but instead he took an HC job and has succeeded in that role. And that now precludes him from a move to a big chair? But if he stayed as an assistant and had zero HC experience he'd be viable? That make little sense to me.

And the idea that he has no chance at a Power 6 job is ridiculous. A quick search finds Kelsey's name was batted around during the Georgia, Ohio State, and Butler openings recently. Certainly connecting him to Wake is then reasonable...Prosser connection or not.

And yes, he's enthusiastic...among many other attributes I've shared several times.
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On point. Pilchard and others want to punish Pat because of his WF connection. The fact that he was an assistant here for a few years and that is on his resume isn’t the reason we want him. It’s because of what we saw here that we want him. We know his attributes first hand. Much like Gene Hooks knew Odom.

Pilch, Ph, & RJKarl want to hire resumes. They don’t live here and don’t get more info than resumes. We want to hire people.
 
As I have said in the past, the best qualified resume out there is Bob Knight. That’s why you don’t hire resumes.

The question is who will be the best coach for WF for the next 10 years—and potentially 30. That person is one with youth, smarts, charisma, & hunger. We know two people with those traits that our competition may not know so well: Miller & Kelsey.
 
Wes Miller and crew lost on road Thursday at Furman. Against decent teams, Miller loses. He is headed into a hornets nest Saturday vs Wofford and it’s senior night. Can’t see any chance of a win.

Why we would consider this guy is beyond me.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Wes Miller and crew lost on road Thursday at Furman. Against decent teams, Miller loses. He is headed into a hornets nest Saturday vs Wofford and it’s senior night. Can’t see any chance of a win.

Why we would consider this guy is beyond me.
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They already beat Furman this year. Wes also has won on the road in the Big 4, cemented 2 straight reg season titles, won the So Con title game last year against a better ETSU.
 
donaldross said:
As I have said in the past, the best qualified resume out there is Bob Knight. That’s why you don’t hire resumes.

The question is who will be the best coach for WF for the next 10 years—and potentially 30. That person is one with youth, smarts, charisma, & hunger. We know two people with those traits that our competition may not know so well: Miller & Kelsey.
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You’re not wrong. I haven’t followed Miller as much as Kelsey. Is Miller very charismatic? He seems a little quiet to me. Oates seems charismatic, but I’ve only seen a few post game interviews with him.
 
donaldross said:
On point. Pilchard and others want to punish Pat because of his WF connection. The fact that he was an assistant here for a few years and that is on his resume isn’t the reason we want him. It’s because of what we saw here that we want him. We know his attributes first hand. Much like Gene Hooks knew Odom.

Pilch, Ph, & RJKarl want to hire resumes. They don’t live here and don’t get more info than resumes. We want to hire people.
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You're right! Let's hire DR's barber....No more resumes in any job. Just like DR supporting Trump for POTUS...
 
I posted this on the game thread, but it might fit here.

We may have an option on his buyout. If the contract states he's an employee of Wake Forest, we might be able to relieve him of his coaching duties and give him a miserable, made up position while keeping him from taking another assistant coaching job in college or the NBA.

Seeing that, if he wants to keep coaching and not be embarrassed every day at work, he would likely agree to a much lower buyout.
 
Do you really believe there are holes in a contract buyout where schools can avoid the payout by making the former coach a janitor?
 
I bet Wellman checks out some one like Micah Shrewsberry. Brad Stevens protege. Young. Mix of college and NBA experience.

I'd also like Jon Scheyer to get a look. He has Wojo's old job and seems to have a background better primed for coaching than Wojo did.
 
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