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KP Report -- Davidson Wildcats -- 7pm ESPNU Tonight

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Deacs are back at it tonight at the Joel against Davidson here is the breakdown:

Record: The Wildcats are 8-2 #78 in KP rankings. They are currently rated as the #2 team in the A 10. WF has already lost to St. Joe's (#105 - 6th in the A10) and Richmond (#188 - 11th in the A10). Davidson's best win was a 57-52 over #116 Wichita State. Their two losses are to #19 Purdue by 21 and #83 Temple in OT last Saturday. Note that in the Temple loss, Davidson's best player Kellan Grady did not play. His status tonight is uncertain. As a result, there is currently no line on tonight's game.

Offense: Bob McKillop has coached the Wildcats since 1989 (!), and their strength is always on offense. Currently, Davidson is the #53 offensive team in the nation. They shoot the ball well. #5 in the nation in FTs (78.7%), #31 in 2 PT% (#31); #34 in effective FG% (#34). They also don't turn the ball over a lot TOs on 17% of their possession (#85). The Wildcats' weakness on O is that they do not offensive rebound (#289) and they don't get to the line much (#306 in FTA per FGA). Davidson plays at a slow tempo on offense (17.9 seconds per offensive possession #257). Davidson knows how to work a possession to get good shots.

Defense: Davidson is OK on D (#121; WF is 194). To date, their strength on D is preventing offensive rebounds (#56), defending the paint (#71) and not fouling (#81). Essentially, they prevent transition baskets and force opponents to beat them in the half court. Davidson does not force many TOs (#238) and their 3 point defense has been soft (#268). Davidson plays mostly zone which makes sense because their bench is limited.

Lineup: As noted above, Davidson's best player is 6-5 G Kellan Grady. He has played in 9 games and scored 20 or more 6 times including 32 against Northeastern. Grady missed the Temple game last weekend, and his status is unknown for tonight. If Grady does not play, Davidson is forced to play with a very short bench as 4 players played 38+ minutes against Temple. Without Grady, the Wildcat starting lineup is: 6-5 G Jon Axel Gudmundsson (from Iceland), 6-3 G Carter Collins, 6-5 F Luke Frampton, 6-6 F KiShawn Prichett and 6-10 C Freshman Luka Brajkovic (Austria). All of Davidson's players except for their centers are threats from 3. Against Temple, Frampton, a freshman from WV, was 7 for 8 from 3. Gudmundsson has been solid for 3 years; he scored 33 in the win over Wichita State.

Bottom line: Davidson comes off a devastating loss as they led Temple 75-69 in OT with 1:32 left, and lost the game on a Temple steal and dunk at the buzzer. KP projects a 72-71 [CORRECTED] Davidson win. Even if Grady doesn't play, this looks like a bad matchup for WF. Davidson knows what they are doing on offense, and they very reliant on the 3. WF does not defend the 3 well (#220). Also, would expect a focused effort from Davidson coming off a loss with a chance to pick up a win against an ACC team on the road. For WF to win, they need to force the Wildcats into a poor shooting night and exploit Davidson's in defending the 3 point shot. Hope to be wrong, but can't see WF wining tonight, and don't even think it will be as close as projected.
 
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Pilchard said:
Deacs are back at tonight at the Joel against Davidson here is the breakdown:

Record: The Wildcats are 8-2 #78 in KP rankings. They are currently rated as the #2 team in the A 10. WF has already lost to St. Joe's (#105 - 6th in the A10) and Richmond (#188 - 11th in the A10). Davidson's best win was a 57-52 over #116 Wichita State. Their two losses are to #19 Purdue by 21 and #83 Temple in OT last Saturday. Note that in the Temple loss, Davidson's best player Kellan Grady did not play. His status tonight is uncertain. As a result, there is currently no line on tonight's game.

Offense: Bob McKillop has coached the Wildcats since 1989 (!), and their strength is always on offense. Currently, Davidson is the #53 offensive team in the nation. They shoot the ball well. #5 in the nation in FTs (78.7%), #31 in 2 PT% (#31); #34 in effective FG% (#34). They also don't turn the ball over a lot TOs on 17% of their possession (#85). The Wildcats weakness on O is that they do not offensive rebound (#289) and they don't get to the line much (#306 in FTA per FGA). Davidson plays at a slow tempo on offense (17.9 seconds per offensive possession #257). Davidson knows how to get good shots.

Defense: Davidson is OK on D (#121; WF is 194). To date, their strength on D is preventing offensive rebounds (#56), defending the paint (#71) and not fouling (#81). Essentially, they prevent transition baskets and force opponents to beat them in the half court. Davidson does not force many TOs (#238) and their 3 point defense has been soft (#268). Davidson plays mostly zone which makes sense because their bench is limited.

Lineup: As noted above, Davidson's best player is 6-5 G Kellan Grady. He has played in 9 games and scored 20 or more 6 times including 32 against Northeastern. Grady missed the Temple game last weekend, and his status is unknown for tonight. If Grady does not play, Davidson is forced to play with a very short bench as 4 players played 38+ minutes against Temple. Without Grady, the Wildcat starting lineup is: 6-5 G Jon Axel Gudmundsson (from Iceland), 6-3 G Carter Collins, 6-5 F Luke Frampton, 6-6 F KiShawn Prichett and 6-10 C Freshman Luka Brajkovic (Austria). All of Davidson's players except for their centers are threats from 3. Against Temple, Frampton, a freshman from WV, was 7 for 8 from 3. Gudmundsson has been solid for 3 years; he scored 33 in the win over Wichita State.

Bottom line: Davidson comes off a devastating loss as they led Temple 75-69 in OT with 1:32 left, and lost the game on a Temple steal and dunk at the buzzer. KP projects a 72-21 Davidson win. Even if Grady doesn't play, this looks like a bad matchup for WF. Davidson knows what they are doing on offense, and they very reliant on the 3. WF does not defend the 3 well (#220). Also, would expect a focused effort from Davidson coming off a loss with a chance to pick up a win against an ACC team on the road. For WF to win, they need to force the Wildcats into a poor shooting night and exploit Davidson's in defending the 3 point shot. Hope to be wrong, but can't see WF wining tonight, and don't even think it will be as close as projected.
Click to expand...

72-21 win for Davidson? That seems a little big. I could see 72-29 though.
 
I'm as pessimistic as the next guy but I'll take WF+51 every day of the week and twice on Tuesday
 
Ouch. Free tickets to a game against a good team from an hour away?
 
wake - 75
davidson - 72

go deacs!
 
Lot of pessimism here. Do we not even have a chance?
 
Not worried. We got this. We’re in a golden era of historical competitiveness.
 
Here is a Davidson fan's take on tonight's game from their message board:

I’m guessing the crowd will be fairly sparse tonight—Wake rarely draws well in December, even in good years. Given Danny’s struggles (that Houston Baptist loss was particularly ugly, as was being pushed to the buzzer by WCU), there will be plenty of good seats and good parking available at the Joel this evening. I wouldn’t expect a boisterous crowd, either. The enthusiasm level for this team within the Wake fanbase is pretty low. Plan on parking in the arena lot. Should be around $8 or so.

I’ll be there with my Wake buddy who has season tickets. Hoping Kellan can get back on the floor, but even without him the Cats are the better team. Deacs have some real talent (freshmen Hoard and Mucius are both going to be good ACC players, and Hoard is a first round draft pick), but as a team they play stupidly. Frequently get lost on defense, so there will be open looks available—Frampton should be salivating.

For a team with obvious physical ability, Wake doesn’t rebound particularly well. The center (Sarr) is a sophomore Frenchman, but he’s thin and gets pushed around a lot. Very springy, but doesn’t really mix it up down low. Other than Hoard and Mucius, the guy to watch for is Chaundee Brown—wing player and jack of all trades. When he plays well, Wake plays their best ball. Childress is streaky. Turnover prone, but can get hot shooting. Not nearly the player his father was, but he plays a similar style. If he guards JAG we’ll have a definite size advantage there. If they go man, they might put freshman Sharone Wright Jr. on JAG. Longer and more athletic, but apt to get out of position and make freshman mistakes. Decent shooter.

Being a Wake fan involves a certain amount of masochism, and watching this team so far absolutely falls into that category. I’ll go back to suffering along with them tomorrow, but if the Cats show up and play to their capabilities tonight (even without Kellan), this should be a victory. Go Cats!
 
I’m Davidson undergrad and Wake Law, so the suspension of this series for the last 18 years suited me fine. However, as a devoted follower of both programs, I feel fairly qualified to make a prediction.

With respect to the Temple game on Saturday, that game absolutely should have been a Davidson win. Was one of those nights with fluke after fluke. Cats were victimized by two terrible shot clock violation calls that took five points off the board. Temple player banked in a three from the corner late in the OT (very similar to that game winner UVA tossed in against the Deacs two seasons ago). Add in Grady not playing, and that is a loss that is going to haunt Davidson from an at large bid perspective come March.

No word on whether Grady will play tonight. McKillop is notoriously tight lipped about injuries, so we likely won’t know anything until they come out for warmups. They said he was day-to-day on Saturday, but that could mean anything. If I had to guess, I’m doubtful he’ll play.

Even without him, this Davidson team is uniquely situated to exploit Wake’s biggest weakness—consistent team defense. Davidson struggles against athletic teams that can force them to run motion further from the basket, but I don’t know who on Wake’s roster can make Gudmundsson uncomfortable enough to keep him from getting where he wants to go. He’s not explosive, but he is slippery. When he gets into the lane with the dribble, good things usually happen for the Cats. Biggest factor in Davidson not beating Temple comfortably was the amount of ball pressure they were able to put on Gudmundsson in Grady’s absence. Wright has the physical ability to do it, but I haven’t seen him do it yet.

Any one of Gudmundsson, Pritchett, Collins, or Frampton should be expected to shoot when they get an open look from three. All four are good shooters; Frampton has a chance to be really, really good. Redshirt freshman who missed all of last season with a knee injury. Has an incredibly pretty stroke, but hadn’t really gotten into a groove until Saturday, when he made 7 of 8 from deep. Both Brajkovic and Kovacevic are good back-to-the-basket scorers, though Brajkovic clearly has the higher upside.

Davidson is going to be able to get open shots. Only real question is whether they make them. They will play hard from start to finish, regardless of score. Wake will have to match their effort level and exploit their athletic advantages to win. Having watched the majority of the games each team has played, there is no question in my mind that Davidson is a better basketball team (in terms of the five players on the floor having a specific plan and capably executing that plan). Deacs have an athletic advantage. If Grady plays and is healthy, I’d say Davidson wins relatively comfortably (8-10 points). Without Grady, I still see a Davidson win, though it will be tighter. I don’t think this Wake team is positioned to play consistently enough on the defensive end to keep Davidson from controlling tempo and getting good shots.
 
Pilchard said:
Deacs are back at it tonight at the Joel against Davidson here is the breakdown:

Record: The Wildcats are 8-2 #78 in KP rankings. They are currently rated as the #2 team in the A 10. WF has already lost to St. Joe's (#105 - 6th in the A10) and Richmond (#188 - 11th in the A10). Davidson's best win was a 57-52 over #116 Wichita State. Their two losses are to #19 Purdue by 21 and #83 Temple in OT last Saturday. Note that in the Temple loss, Davidson's best player Kellan Grady did not play. His status tonight is uncertain. As a result, there is currently no line on tonight's game.

Offense: Bob McKillop has coached the Wildcats since 1989 (!), and their strength is always on offense. Currently, Davidson is the #53 offensive team in the nation. They shoot the ball well. #5 in the nation in FTs (78.7%), #31 in 2 PT% (#31); #34 in effective FG% (#34). They also don't turn the ball over a lot TOs on 17% of their possession (#85). The Wildcats' weakness on O is that they do not offensive rebound (#289) and they don't get to the line much (#306 in FTA per FGA). Davidson plays at a slow tempo on offense (17.9 seconds per offensive possession #257). Davidson knows how to work a possession to get good shots.

Defense: Davidson is OK on D (#121; WF is 194). To date, their strength on D is preventing offensive rebounds (#56), defending the paint (#71) and not fouling (#81). Essentially, they prevent transition baskets and force opponents to beat them in the half court. Davidson does not force many TOs (#238) and their 3 point defense has been soft (#268). Davidson plays mostly zone which makes sense because their bench is limited.

Lineup: As noted above, Davidson's best player is 6-5 G Kellan Grady. He has played in 9 games and scored 20 or more 6 times including 32 against Northeastern. Grady missed the Temple game last weekend, and his status is unknown for tonight. If Grady does not play, Davidson is forced to play with a very short bench as 4 players played 38+ minutes against Temple. Without Grady, the Wildcat starting lineup is: 6-5 G Jon Axel Gudmundsson (from Iceland), 6-3 G Carter Collins, 6-5 F Luke Frampton, 6-6 F KiShawn Prichett and 6-10 C Freshman Luka Brajkovic (Austria). All of Davidson's players except for their centers are threats from 3. Against Temple, Frampton, a freshman from WV, was 7 for 8 from 3. Gudmundsson has been solid for 3 years; he scored 33 in the win over Wichita State.

Bottom line: Davidson comes off a devastating loss as they led Temple 75-69 in OT with 1:32 left, and lost the game on a Temple steal and dunk at the buzzer. KP projects a 72-71 [CORRECTED] Davidson win. Even if Grady doesn't play, this looks like a bad matchup for WF. Davidson knows what they are doing on offense, and they very reliant on the 3. WF does not defend the 3 well (#220). Also, would expect a focused effort from Davidson coming off a loss with a chance to pick up a win against an ACC team on the road. For WF to win, they need to force the Wildcats into a poor shooting night and exploit Davidson's in defending the 3 point shot. Hope to be wrong, but can't see WF wining tonight, and don't even think it will be as close as projected.
Click to expand...

Way to go out on a limb there, be hard for it to end up being any closer than projected if we lose.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
Way to go out on a limb there, be hard for it to end up being any closer than projected if we lose.
Click to expand...

Botched word parsing attempt by LDD. The last sentence states:

a) Can't see WF winning
b) Don't think (the final score) will be as close as (KP or the LV line) projected.

I will spell it out for you: Davidson will win, and it won't be close.
 
Pilchard said:
Botched word parsing attempt by LDD. The last sentence states:

a) Can't see WF winning
b) Don't think (the final score) will be as close as (KP or the LV line) projected.

I will spell it out for you: Davidson will win, and it won't be close.
Click to expand...

No, I'm saying it isn't going out on much of a limb to say you think we will lose and it won't even be as close as predicted, when the prediction is we lose by 1 point. If we were predicted to lose by say 10, then we could lose by 9 or less and it would be closer than predicted. Since we are predicted to lose by 1 point, if we lose by any other total than 1, it won't be as close as predicted. So, not much risk in making that prediction, although I certainly agree with it.
 
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