This is an excerpt from a fantasy football letter I subscribe to. It obviously not about Dortch, but teaches us to judge WR's by more than size and speed
9. Size and Speed are not Skills
Courtland Sutton is big, strong, and fast. He wowed many analysts leading to the NFL Draft and more during training camp with his size and speed. Expectations of a rookie season like the ones we saw from D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, and (in limited time) Dante Pettis was not far behind.
However, Sutton's teammate, Chris Harris Jr tempered enthusiasm about Sutton, telling the media that the rookie needed to learn the route tree. Sutton earned 37 targets, 17 catches, 324 yards, and 2 touchdowns before the Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas to the Texans in Week 8. For the past 6 weeks, Sutton has earned 34 targets, 18 catches, 290 yards, and 1 touchdown.
Not much different despite becoming a primary starter. Why? He can't run enough of the route tree yet.
In contrast, Ridley runs the route tree well and displaced Mohamed Sanu was a primary perimeter option in Atlanta, earing 59 catches, 789 yards, and 9 touchdowns. D.J. Moore has tailed off lately but still has 51 catches, 707 yards, and 2 scores and an additional 13 touches for 172 rushing yards. Moore also runs a more complete route tree than Sutton.
Since Week 9 Dante Pettis has been more productive than Ridley, Moore, and Sutton as fantasy football's 23rd-ranked non-PPR receiver. He runs the best routes of the four.
Fantasy Lesson(s): Size is a dimension and speed is a measurement of athletic ability. Neither correlates directly to skill once you establish that the player has met the minimum requirements of dimensions and athletic ability.
Jonathan Baldwin was tall. He could not run routes or catch the ball consistently. Robert Meachem was tall and fast. Catching the ball for Meachem with the proper technique was an advanced physics equation. He had a couple of notable years in New Orleans but couldn't advance his game.
Justin Hunter is tall, fast, and leaps out of the stadium. He runs a limited number of routes and can't consistently catch passes that he should. In comparison, JuJu Smith Schuster, Dante Pettis, Robert Woods, Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins are either smaller, slower, and/or less explosive but possess the skills of route running and pass catching.
Athletic ability and physical dimensions are baselines to get into the NFL that, IF the player possesses skills, can add to the effectiveness of the player. Otherwise, don't overrate them.
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I pay attention to route running, shuttle, and cone drills. These tell you if they can get open. The 40 time is only indicative of their effectiveness on a go route. If Dortch is praised for his route running, and has good shuttle and cone drill times, I think he'll do well in the NFL. Hands are a factor, too, but I get the sense there are levels of Ginn/stone, adequate, superlative. Just don't be the first one.
