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'19 Special & '20 Congressional Election Thread

avalon said:
Tillis Op Ed 2/25/2019: I support Trump’s vision on border security. But I would vote against the emergency.

3/5/2019: Tillis plans to vote against national emergency. Has he opened path for a challenger?

3/14/2019: Tillis reverses course, votes to support Trump on national emergency declaration

He tried having a tiny bit of a spine once, it didn't last very long.
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Richard Burr also tried this, especially during his Senate investigation with Mark Warner. and then after announcing he's retiring with nothing to lose, he's gone full-bore Trumper.
 
Yeah I remember that Tillis “position” that came out of nowhere and quickly reversed to capitulation. Which made me think it was not really him, it was more of a fake moderate position that was allowed by leadership to create some aura of independent thought.
 
ConnorEl said:
Berger is constantly f’ing up.

But he’s from crazy Trump country.
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As a member of the NC state legislature Berger isn't nearly as well-known as some of the worst DC GOP pols, but he's every bit as bad. I used to have a coworker whose husband was the GOP mayor of a medium-sized city in NC, and he loathed Berger, even though they were fellow Republicans. She said that her husband told her that Berger was one of the most dishonest, power-hungry, and bullying people he'd ever met in politics. I've also heard from good sources that whenever teachers used to complain to him about the way public schools were treated early in his stint as State Senate Majority Leader, that he was openly rude and snide. I believe that his son tried to start a charter school in Rockingham County, which went bust before opening its doors. Based on everything I've heard and read he's a loathsome little dude - but he pretty much controls the NC State Senate, and has for years.
 
Heard an interview with Cal Cunningham on Pod Save America. Impressive dude.
 
Good Jonathan Capehart podcast with Rachel Bitecofer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/podc...explains-the-reason-joe-biden-is-the-nominee/

Lots of good info. She doesn’t like Doug Jones’ chances but she thinks Jamie Harrison has a shot against Lindsey Graham. It makes sense. High black turnout in the SC primary is a great sign for Harrison. The infrastructure is already in the state. Six years ago Graham was a moderate Pub. Now he’s a Trump toady. There may be enough motivated Dems and unmotivated Pubs to swing it.
 
In the interview above, Cal Cunningham pointed out that what he hears from NC conservatives is that Tillis is a flip flopper. He was against Trump and now he carries water for Trump. Tillis only got 78.7% of the Republican primary vote running against three nondescript contenders. Trump got 93.5%. There’s little room for a split ticket to give Cunningham enough Trump/none or Trump/Cunningham voters to put him over the top. And over 22,000 people voted in the Presidential primary but not the Senate primary.

Perhaps there’s a similar dynamic in SC but we don’t know because Pubs cancelled their primary.
 
 
my former roommate was Newman’s first campaign manager for her first race

pretty sweet to see incumbents get beat from the left
 
It’s gotta be harder to beat an incumbent when you can’t go out and interact with people in person.
 
Here's more information about the poll. The tweet is misleading but the poll is promising.

Only 33% of likely voters think Graham deserves to be re-elected. Graham only has 45% approval.

The poll is Graham 47%, Harrison 43%. But "after learning more about Graham's record," it goes to Harrison 46%, Graham 42%.

Also promising is that this poll is before the COVID-19 crisis really got going in the US.

https://jaimeharrison.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.23-polling-memo.pdf



 
 
Former SC executive, Lindsey Graham supporter backs Democrat Jaime Harrison in Senate race

https://www.postandcourier.com/poli...cle_491400ae-895b-11ea-81f0-bb78b2b73603.html

Richard Wilkerson, the former chairman and president of Michelin’s Greenville-based North America operations, said he chose to endorse Democrat Jaime Harrison because of his experience working with him while Harrison lobbied on the company’s behalf in Washington, D.C.
From 2009 to 2016, when Harrison was a lobbyist at the now-defunct Podesta Group, he advocated for some of Michelin’s legislative priorities, including dredging the Port of Charleston and creating new tire manufacturing standards to improve fuel efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Wilkerson said the experience showed him “how hard he (Harrison) works to bring lasting economic opportunity to the people of South Carolina” and described him as “the change South Carolina needs.”
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[h=1]South Carolina Senate Moves to Likely Republican[/h]https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/south-carolina-senate/south-carolina-senate-moves-likely-republican

Deep dive from The Cook Report on the SC Senate race.

As the Washington Post analyzed, the biggest upticks from four years ago were in the traditionally conservative Upstate, but where industries like BMW, Michelin and a vibrant downtown have seen more well-educated and younger families settling down; in Charleston and Columbia; and in Rock Hill/York County, which have become a fast-growing outpost of the Charlotte suburbs across the border. Overall, "precinct-level analysis by The Post shows that while statewide turnout increased by about 40 percent over 2016, the parts of the state that saw the largest spikes were the most white and upper income."
Now there was no Republican primary at all in 2020, while there was a hotly competitive one in 2016, and many of those same voters likely pulled a Democratic ballot this time around. But Democrats, who had little good news in the state for a long stretch, are rightly enthused. And the fact that the 1st District, which the Cook Political Report rates as a Toss Up, will attract plenty of money and attention — and that Cunningham has performed strongly even in a red district — could also help to boost Harrison in an important part of the state.
According to one South Carolina Democratic strategist, focus groups conducted in other parts of the state have produced similar feedback that Harrison's campaign also points to — growing unrest with Graham among white, college-educated women especially.
"The win in the 1st District opened people's eyes, so they saw it was possible," the Palmetto State Democrat said. "Folks in the Charlotte suburbs and South Carolina Republicans who aren't Trump Republicans are turning and looking for an alternative."
Still, the Democrat cautioned that Harrison also has to walk a delicate line of not criticizing Trump too much, but presenting himself as more of a check on the president, according to focus groups.
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