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Chat Thread - Make BiffTannen Great Again

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DeacDiggler said:
i think we can definitively conclude that they certainly aren't good at math; if you disagree, we can also conclude that you're not good at logic.
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I don't know -- I think there is a Black Swan-style justification for playing the lottery or diverting some recreation-designated spending toward it
 
Marshall McLuhan said:
Nah I'm good on generalizing a group of people. I'll stick with addressing this fantasy of the Mega Jackpot improving lives.
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selection bias. The sexy story is that of the bankrupt and destroyed, not the winners with improved lives. those who are smart enough to keep their traps shut.
 
Marshall McLuhan said:
TIL discussing an effect of the lottery on group majority is selection bias

https://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2016/01/why_do_70_percent_of_lottery_w.html
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a statistic that seems to have no basis in fact:

Research Statistic on Financial Windfalls and Bankruptcy
Nearly 7 in 10 Will Set Goals to Improve Finances
Date: January 12, 2018
Contact: Paul Golden 303-224-3514, pdg@nefe.org

DENVER — Over the past couple of years several news organizations have attributed a statistic to the National Endowment for Financial Education (NEFE) stating that 70 percent of lottery winners end up bankrupt in just a few years after receiving a large financial windfall. This statistic is not backed by research from NEFE, nor can it be confirmed by the organization. Frequent reporting—without validation from NEFE—has allowed this “stat” to survive online in perpetuity.

In 2001, NEFE conducted a think tank of experts from several industries including psychology, financial planning and other fields, to discuss life-changing events and the psychology around them. One topic discussed was the impact of financial windfalls on individuals, where it is believed that a participant stated the 70 percent statistic. This statement was made independently and without verification from NEFE.

While NEFE cannot provide a statistic regarding financial windfalls and bankruptcy at this time, there is a wealth of research-based financial data available in our research center.
 
Man if that is townie that’s really poor research on his part, so I’m going to assume it’s not townie. Solid 70% myth though, make sure you wait to go swimming after eating too!
 
Marshall McLuhan said:
I standby my arg that "selection bias" is a poor read of failed lives by way of mega jackpots. It's not like Whittaker is the only one.
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it's not a read on their lives, but the fact that you're using stories about winners with destroyed lives is deceptive. it's precisely why the 70% stat is so alluring
 
ImTheCaptain said:
it's not a read on their lives, but the fact that you're using stories about winners with destroyed lives is deceptive. it's precisely why the 70% stat is so alluring
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The messaging from lottery advertising - the same rhetoric that guides you into "taking the chance" of playing the lotto - is equally as deceptive. I'm down with a fair treatment that places stories of both side-by-side, but it's taking a lot to even get people here to admit that there could be a structural problem with $100 million jackpots that extend beyond just poor money management - a fantasy that it's the individual's problem when their life goes belly up post winning.
 
Marshall McLuhan said:
The messaging from lottery advertising - the same rhetoric that guides you into "taking the chance" of playing the lotto - is equally as deceptive. I'm down with a fair treatment that places stories of both side-by-side, but it's taking a lot to even get people here to admit that there could be a structural problem with $100 million jackpots that extend beyond just poor money management - a fantasy that it's the individual's problem when their life goes belly up post winning.
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sure there could be - but having a moral problem with the existence of large jackpots is not the same as being afraid of handling $100 million
 
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