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KP Report -- NC State Wolfpack - 8 pm Tuesday (Uh oh) Raycom

Pilchard

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WF, BC and Clemson are the ACC's only winless teams in conference play. The Deacs look to continue their futility tomorrow with a dreaded Tuesday night home matchup against State. Here is the skinny on the Pack:

Record: State is 14-2 overall 2-1 in the ACC and #26 KP. Their two losses are at home to UNC (#10) and to Wisconsin (#14) on the road. State's top 100 wins are against #11 Auburn by 7, #61 Penn St. by 11, #68 Miami by 5 and #80 Pitt by 6. State played a lot of craptastic teams early, and their overall OOC schedule is rated #351 out 354 teams. FWIW, WF is the #161 team in the nation; one spot ahead of UTSA, and behind the likes of Colgate, Bucknell, Radford and Stony Brook.

Offense: Team strength #12 team in the nation on offense. State plays at fast tempo (#9), and does almost everything well on offense, but get the line (#230 in FTA/FGA). State likes to shoot quickly and go after the ball, they are #8 in offensive rebounds, #15 in 3 PT%, #20 in 2 PT% and #8 in overall effective FG%. Odd for a good shooting team, State has struggled from the line 69.7% (#185). State likes to score points: in their 16 games, State has reached 100 three times, 90 three other times, and has scored at least 80 all but twice. Against a soft WF D, would expect State to score often.

Defense: State's defense is all about pressure (#71). They are #4 in the nation in forcing TOs, and their aggressive defensive style puts their opponents on the line (#298 in opponents' FTA/FGA). State does not have a lot of size; so, teams have been able to score inside against the Pack when their D doesn't force a TO (#154 in 2 PT% defense). While State has defended the 3 well in OOC games, their 3 ACC opponents have burned State from behind the line (ACC teams shooting 41% from 3 against State).

Lineup: Keatts like to come at his opponent in waves. State is #18 in the nation in bench minutes. In Saturday's win over Pitt, 9 Pack players either started of logged 10 or minutes. In the Pack's last game they started: 6-0 So. PG Braxton Beverly, 6-1 Jr. G Markell Johnson, 6-5 Sr. F Torin Dorn, 6-5 Sr. CJ Bryce (UNCW transfer) and C 6-9 Sr. Wyatt Walker (Samford transfer). In their last game, Walker was ejected early in the game, and Markell Johnson was injured after a bad fall. Every Pack player except for Walker can hit the 3. Beverly and Johnson make more than 40 % of their threes. Johnson also shoots 69% from 2 (which is crazy good for a guard). State is hard to defend against because so many different players can score. State has had different high scorer in each of their 3 ACC games (20 for Markell Johnson against Miami, 21 for Beverley against UNC, 19 for Devon Daniels off the bench against Pitt).

Bottom line: KP projects 86-76 Pack victory (81% probability of a State win) . This is the first of 3 straight road games for State. So, would expect the Pack to be focused to start their road trip with a win. Also, it's always good to beat up on a weaker in-state foe. Expect the game to go one of two ways: WF will get dusted from the start and lose big. WF will hang until about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, and State will turn up the pressure and WF will surrender a huge State run leading to a comfortable win. Either way, the Pack score 90+ and win by double digits.
 
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We could beat this team on a Wednesday, probably.
 
WF, BC and Clemson are the ACC's only winless teams in conference play. The Deacs look to continue their futility tomorrow with a dreaded Tuesday night home matchup against State. Here is the skinny on the Pack:

Record: State is 14-2 overall 2-1 in the ACC and #26 KP. Their two losses are at home to UNC (#10) and to Wisconsin (#14) on the road. State's top 100 wins are against #11 Auburn by 7, #61 Penn St. by 11, #68 Miami by 5 and #80 Pitt by 6. State played a lot of craptastic teams early, and their overall OOC schedule is rated #351 out 354 teams. FWIW, WF is the #161 team in the nation; one spot ahead of UTSA, and behind the likes of Colgate, Bucknell, Radford and Stony Brook.

Offense: Team strength #12 team in the nation on offense. State plays at fast tempo (#9), and does almost everything well on offense, but get the line (#230 in FTA/FGA). State likes to shoot quickly and go after the ball, they are #8 in offensive rebounds, #15 in 3 PT%, #20 in 2 PT% and #8 in overall effective FG%. Odd for a good shooting team, State has struggled from the line 69.7% (#185). State likes to score points: in their 16 games, State has reached 100 three times, 90 three other times, and has scored at least 80 all but twice. Against a soft WF D, would expect State to score often.

Defense: State's defense is all about pressure (#71). They are #4 in the nation in forcing TOs, and their aggressive defensive style puts their opponents on the line (#298 in opponents' FTA/FGA). State does not have a lot of size; so, teams have been able to score inside against the Pack when their D doesn't force a TO (#154 in 2 PT% defense). While State has defended the 3 well in OOC games, their 3 ACC opponents have burned State from behind the line (ACC teams shooting 41% from 3 against State).

Lineup: Keatts like to come at his opponent in waves. State is #18 in the nation in bench minutes. In Saturday's win over Pitt, 9 Pack players either started of logged 10 or minutes. In the Pack's last game they started: 6-0 So. PG Braxton Beverly, 6-1 Jr. G Markell Johnson, 6-5 Sr. F Torin Dorn, 6-5 Sr. CJ Bryce (UNCW transfer) and C 6-9 Sr. Wyatt Walker (Samford transfer). In their last game, Walker was ejected early in the game, and Markell Johnson was injured after a bad fall. Every Pack player except for Walker can hit the 3. Beverly and Johnson make more than 40 % of their threes. Johnson also shoots 69% from 2 (which is crazy good for a guard). State is hard to defend against because so many different players can score. State has had different high scorer in each of their 3 ACC games (20 for Markell Johnson against Miami, 21 for Beverley against UNC, 19 for Devon Daniels off the bench against Pitt).

Bottom line: KP projects 86-76 Pack victory (81% probability of a State win) . This is the first of 3 straight road games for State. So, would expect the Pack to be focused to start their road trip with a win. Also, it's always good to beat up on a weaker in-state foe. Expect the game to go one of two ways: WF will get dusted from the start and lose big. WF will hang until about the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half, and State will turn up the pressure and WF will surrender a huge State run leading to a comfortable win. Either way, the Pack score 90+ and win by double digits.

Sounds like a perfect game for Danny's master game plan of driving the lane and forcing the referees to blow the whistle.
 
I have no doubts that we'll lose, but this seems like the type of random outlier game where we win and nobody can explain how or why it happened.

I mean, it's probably going to happen at least once this year.

But yeah, we'll probably lose by 20.
 
I have no doubts that we'll lose, but this seems like the type of random outlier game where we win and nobody can explain how or why it happened.

I mean, it's probably going to happen at least once this year.

But yeah, we'll probably lose by 20.

I'm can't pull against us, but any wins the rest of the season would just increase the hopefully small chance Danny is not fired at the end of the year. At this point, losing is almost winning for the long term health of the program I think.
 
If we only win one more game the rest of the way I want it to be this one. The meltdown on PP would be highly entertaining. Although, not as entertaining as their meltdown 2 months ago after Claw came into Carter-Finely on senior night and put his foot up their asses.
 
I'm can't pull against us, but any wins the rest of the season would just increase the hopefully small chance Danny is not fired at the end of the year. At this point, losing is almost winning for the long term health of the program I think.

this
they must lose every game and lose badly. even close games could possibly lead to lifetime extension
 
I'm can't pull against us, but any wins the rest of the season would just increase the hopefully small chance Danny is not fired at the end of the year. At this point, losing is almost winning for the long term health of the program I think.

The most we could possibly, even remotely win are two more games. 2-16 shouldn’t make any difference compared with 0-18 regarding Manning.
 
Can't ever pull against WF.

FWIW, this season is totally lost regardless if WF pulls out a win here and there. Manning blew the chance that Wellman tried to give him with a super-soft OOC schedule when WF lost at home to HBU and Gardner-Webb (and at Richmond and GT for that matter). WF hand-picked the easiest imaginable OOC schedule with the hope that WF would beat all of the bad teams, beat some of the other ACC cellar-dwellers and approach .500. Then, Wellman would've claimed progress had been made when there really would've been none.

Even if WF managed to upset State at home and find one or two other wins, 3-15 versus 0-18 isn't going to help any performance-based argument for Manning. If Manning returns next year, it won't be because WF beat State in January and somehow stumbles to a couple of other wins. The decision to keep or fire Danny has already been made; the next two months of games aren't going to change that.
 
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The most we could possibly, even remotely win are two more games. 2-16 shouldn’t make any difference compared with 0-18 regarding Manning.

It shouldn't, but with Wellman nothing is certain. That said other than beating UNC, if we only win one more game, tomorrow night would be good.
 
Will be very interesting to see if Markell Johnson is good to go or not. Big blow for State if he is out.
 
 
Indeed. Almost seems as if Manning has a defense predicated on giving up easiest shots rather than preventing them...
 
At what point in the second half does a State run turn a competitive game into a laugher? Or is this a game where we get run out of the gym before the first TV timeout?
 
Will be very interesting to see if Markell Johnson is good to go or not. Big blow for State if he is out.

Yea, this will be the defining factor in determining if the Deacs win or lose...I mean cover. With him, you guys win by 16. Without him, ya'll win by a modest 9 points.
 
Indeed. Almost seems as if Manning has a defense predicated on giving up easiest shots rather than preventing them...

Manning wants us to contest all mid range jumpers but not really worry about inside baskets or 3 point shots. That should work.
 
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