Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
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To just give an idea of how irrelevant and uninspiring WF basketball currently is consider this:
KP's site ranks each game on particular night based upon a "Thrill Score" which uses factors such as the quality of the teams playing the game and the expected competitiveness of the game. Typically, games that are expected to be close between highly-rated teams top the thrill score ratings (e.g., the two top "thrill score" games last night were UVA at UNC and Kansas at TCU).
Tomorrow, there are 59 games D-1 games. The WF @ FSU game is ranked #51, just ahead of game #52 Maine at Hartford and just behind game #50 UNC Asheville at USC Upstate. UNC Ashville v. USC Upstate. Let that sink in. So, there is no reason to feel bad about not caring about WF basketball. No one else cares either.
On to the analysis of the Noles:
Record: FSU is 18-5 (6-4) and are on a roll having won 5 straight conference games. FSU's OOC marquee wins are over: #8 Purdue, #21 LSU, #38 FSU. In the ACC, FSU has swept Miami and has single wins over L'ville, Cuse, Clemson and GA Tech. FSU has bad losses at Pitt and BC, and a heartbreaker against Duke. The loss to Duke at the buzzer is FSU's only home loss (11-1). FWIW, the last time these teams played, WF beat FSU 78-74 at the Joel on January 31, 2018.
Offense: The Noles have the #6 offense in ACC games. Their offensive strength is getting points from the FT line. They are #2 in the ACC in percentage of points from the line (WF is #3). Otherwise, FSU is a mediocre offensive team shooting 33% (#9 in conference) from 3 and 48% (#10 in conference) in ACC games. The Noles like to pick up the pace on offense (#4 in offensive tempo in ACC games), and hit the offensive boards collecting 32% of the available rebounds when on offense.
Defense: Not as stout on D as recent Nole teams -- #7 in the ACC. FSU games are often never-ending foul-fests as, in addition to getting the line a lot on offense, they foul a lot on defense (#14 in the ACC in defensive FTA per FGA). FSU does force TOs on D (#3 in the ACC; TO's on 20% of defensive possessions), and with good size, FSU defends the paint well (45.7% 2 PT defense - #4 in the ACC). FSU also does not give up many transition baskets as FSU is #2 in the conference in extending defensive possessions.
Lineup: Deep and experienced. FSU is #15 in the country in average height, and #42 in bench minutes. Against L'ville, FSU played a 9 man rotation, and the 4 bench players all logged more than 10 minutes. In their last game, the Noles started: PG 6-5 So. MJ Walker, 6-4 Jr. Trent Forrest, 6-7 Sr. Terrence Mann, 6-8 5th year Sr. Phil Cofer and 7-4 Sr. Christ Koumadje. In addition to the FSU starters, their most effective weapon comes off the bench 6-10 Mfiondu Kabengele. MK has been a beast lately with 17 or more points in 5 of FSU's last 6 games, scoring 22 in the win over L'ville; MK shoots 55% from 2 and 41% from 3. Needless to say, he will be a match up problem for the Deacs. David Nichols (Albany transfer) gets the 2nd most minutes off the Nole bench. Mann (47%), Walker (38%), Nichols (34%) and MK (41%) are their biggest threats from 3.
Bottom line: Bad matchup. WF has not won in Tallahassee since 2008. This is FSU's last home game for two weeks, and FSU has been dominant at home. In addition, FSU is bigger, stronger, more experienced, and better-coached than WF. Also given that both teams focus their offense on getting to the line, this beating, I mean, this game will be slow and painful. KP projects a 80-62 FSU win. Sounds about right assuming Hamilton shows Manning some mercy. If the total is in the low 140s, like the over.
KP's site ranks each game on particular night based upon a "Thrill Score" which uses factors such as the quality of the teams playing the game and the expected competitiveness of the game. Typically, games that are expected to be close between highly-rated teams top the thrill score ratings (e.g., the two top "thrill score" games last night were UVA at UNC and Kansas at TCU).
Tomorrow, there are 59 games D-1 games. The WF @ FSU game is ranked #51, just ahead of game #52 Maine at Hartford and just behind game #50 UNC Asheville at USC Upstate. UNC Ashville v. USC Upstate. Let that sink in. So, there is no reason to feel bad about not caring about WF basketball. No one else cares either.
On to the analysis of the Noles:
Record: FSU is 18-5 (6-4) and are on a roll having won 5 straight conference games. FSU's OOC marquee wins are over: #8 Purdue, #21 LSU, #38 FSU. In the ACC, FSU has swept Miami and has single wins over L'ville, Cuse, Clemson and GA Tech. FSU has bad losses at Pitt and BC, and a heartbreaker against Duke. The loss to Duke at the buzzer is FSU's only home loss (11-1). FWIW, the last time these teams played, WF beat FSU 78-74 at the Joel on January 31, 2018.
Offense: The Noles have the #6 offense in ACC games. Their offensive strength is getting points from the FT line. They are #2 in the ACC in percentage of points from the line (WF is #3). Otherwise, FSU is a mediocre offensive team shooting 33% (#9 in conference) from 3 and 48% (#10 in conference) in ACC games. The Noles like to pick up the pace on offense (#4 in offensive tempo in ACC games), and hit the offensive boards collecting 32% of the available rebounds when on offense.
Defense: Not as stout on D as recent Nole teams -- #7 in the ACC. FSU games are often never-ending foul-fests as, in addition to getting the line a lot on offense, they foul a lot on defense (#14 in the ACC in defensive FTA per FGA). FSU does force TOs on D (#3 in the ACC; TO's on 20% of defensive possessions), and with good size, FSU defends the paint well (45.7% 2 PT defense - #4 in the ACC). FSU also does not give up many transition baskets as FSU is #2 in the conference in extending defensive possessions.
Lineup: Deep and experienced. FSU is #15 in the country in average height, and #42 in bench minutes. Against L'ville, FSU played a 9 man rotation, and the 4 bench players all logged more than 10 minutes. In their last game, the Noles started: PG 6-5 So. MJ Walker, 6-4 Jr. Trent Forrest, 6-7 Sr. Terrence Mann, 6-8 5th year Sr. Phil Cofer and 7-4 Sr. Christ Koumadje. In addition to the FSU starters, their most effective weapon comes off the bench 6-10 Mfiondu Kabengele. MK has been a beast lately with 17 or more points in 5 of FSU's last 6 games, scoring 22 in the win over L'ville; MK shoots 55% from 2 and 41% from 3. Needless to say, he will be a match up problem for the Deacs. David Nichols (Albany transfer) gets the 2nd most minutes off the Nole bench. Mann (47%), Walker (38%), Nichols (34%) and MK (41%) are their biggest threats from 3.
Bottom line: Bad matchup. WF has not won in Tallahassee since 2008. This is FSU's last home game for two weeks, and FSU has been dominant at home. In addition, FSU is bigger, stronger, more experienced, and better-coached than WF. Also given that both teams focus their offense on getting to the line, this beating, I mean, this game will be slow and painful. KP projects a 80-62 FSU win. Sounds about right assuming Hamilton shows Manning some mercy. If the total is in the low 140s, like the over.
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