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PSU Hoops - National Media Sees Chambers as Possible Manning Replacement

netflixnchildres said:
I'm talking with my eyes, not about kenpom. Obviously if I think they are overranked as a conference I'm saying I don't think the conference teams should be rated as high in kenpom. The eye test tells me many of those teams are subpar, and yes I do watch a lot of games including Big10 games.
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Well I think we're done here.

ETA: What is likely more accurate, a system that accounts for every single possession that every single Division 1 team plays or someone watching "a lot of games including Big10 games?" And it's not just about watching Big 10 games, it's about watching every single team play games in D1. How do you know if a team is top 100, 200, or 300 if you don't also watch the games that Grand Canyon and NJIT play? How would you know if Rutgers is better than NJIT if you haven't seen them both play?
 
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Wake used to play a schedule like that back in my day. Clemson with the great Butch Zatezalo was one of our easy games.

I used KenPom and find it invaluable. Nonetheless, you got to wonder how Wake gets a 4.1 home court advantage, whereas Duke, clearly one of the toughest venues in the nation (tho not last night), only 3.4. Who knew? Actually no one and it's not true.
 
netflixnchildres said:
I just think the big10 is overrated as a conference. They have 6 bad teams. The top 3 teams are the only good ones, and they can't match the top 3 from the ACC or the Big12.
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We will see. Hate to admit it, but I think MD is pretty good. They have two 1st round picks in Fernando and Smith, and Cowan is a solid PG. Also, their 2 guard Eric Ayala is shooting 45% from 3. Think they could make a tourney run.

Also, as always, Wisconsin is a pain in the ass to play. They always dictate tempo, Happ has the best inside game of any player in college basketball, and when their guards hit the three (which is sporadic), the Badgers can beat anyone. They are the only team to beat Villanova in the NCAAs over the past 3 years, and they could do something similar to a top team again.

Agree that the Big 10 has a lot mediocre teams (tOSU, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska), but they don't have any really bad teams like WF, BC or Pitt. The reason why Penn State has an overall good SoS is because they played no one terrible. The worst team on Penn State's schedule is UMBC, and they are 17-10 (#217). Everyone else is in the top half of college basketball (WF would be the 3rd worst team on PSU's schedule this year). They didn't play any games against the worst of the worst (the bottom 100), and that has pumped up their SoS.
 
netflixnchildres said:
That's fine. If you consider kenpom your bible, go for it. I consider it 1 thing among many that can be used to evaluate a team.
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It's not my bible but I trust an objective evaluative source over what somebody sees over a few games.

And FWIW, between KP, NET, and Sagarin, only one team (Rutgers) is worse than 100th in the country and that's only in the NET system.
 
DeacDoug said:
Wake used to play a schedule like that back in my day. Clemson with the great Butch Zatezalo was one of our easy games.

I used KenPom and find it invaluable. Nonetheless, you got to wonder how Wake gets a 4.1 home court advantage, whereas Duke, clearly one of the toughest venues in the nation (tho not last night), only 3.4. Who knew? Actually no one and it's not true.
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It's because Wake is so bad on the road. It compares how a team performs on the road and at home. As Wake has been awful on the road for a decade now it makes our HCA very high.
 
Back to the original topic though, per Sagarin Penn State would be an 8 point favorite over Wake on a neutral court.
 
thanks, Danny and Ron, for making PSU basketball more interesting to discuss than Wake Forest
 
DeacDoug said:
Wake used to play a schedule like that back in my day. Clemson with the great Butch Zatezalo was one of our easy games.

I used KenPom and find it invaluable. Nonetheless, you got to wonder how Wake gets a 4.1 home court advantage, whereas Duke, clearly one of the toughest venues in the nation (tho not last night), only 3.4. Who knew? Actually no one and it's not true.
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The reason why WF has a higher home court advantage is because of how horrible WF plays on the road. The HCA is a reflection of the differential between road and home performance. For the most part, Duke plays well everywhere (e.g., at UVA), while WF typically gets blown out on the road (until the ND win, WF has lost every ACC road game by double digits; WF lost at TN by 19 and even lost at awful Richmond by 7). The fact that Duke sells out its home games or that its fans are sooooo crazy has no bearing on KP's HCA.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Back to the original topic though, per Sagarin Penn State would be an 8 point favorite over Wake on a neutral court.
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Yeah, I could see Wake winning on a neutral court though, so thats where I think analytics aren't always 100% right. Penn State sucks this year, and is overrated, that's my opinion. Kenpom is allowed to have another one and you can choose to follow it 100% of the time.
 
Probably the most predictable thread in a long time.
 
Well yeah an eight point underdog wins around one in every four games, so I could see Wake winning on a neutral court too.
 
There is a difference between a team’s relative efficiency and what they have actually accomplished in terms of winning games. Usually the difference is small. In cases such as this, the difference is much larger than normal.
 
MD - no good OOC wins
WI - no good OOC wins
IA- OR/Iowa State
Purdue - no good OOC wins
MI- Nova and UNC
O$U- no good OOC wins
MN- no good OOC wins
IL - played a number of good OOC but no wins

Sorry, there's no rational way to say a conference that has very, very few OOC wins should be considered good enough to create a top level SOS.

Add to that PSU doesn't win. They have more bad losses than good wins and they lose close games. There is no rational way to make them a Top 50 team.
 
thatguy2016 said:
There is a difference between a team’s relative efficiency and what they have actually accomplished in terms of winning games. Usually the difference is small. In cases such as this, the difference is much larger than normal.
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I believe this is the infamous luck factor, which measures how good a team is at converting efficiency to wins (correct me if I am wrong). Penn State is ranked 344th. Although there is certainly some actual luck involved, I think we all know that some teams are just better at closing games than others (although Wake is actually at 58th this year), and this is partly why KP should be used in combination with other factors when evaluating teams.
 
WFU Lurker said:
I believe this is the infamous luck factor, which measures how good a team is at converting efficiency to wins (correct me if I am wrong). Penn State is ranked 344th. Although there is certainly some actual luck involved, I think we all know that some teams are just better at closing games than others (although Wake is actually at 58th this year), and this is partly why KP should be used in combination with other factors when evaluating teams.
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Pretty much on point, except that it's not precisely how "good" a team is at converting efficiency to wins but rather shows the "error" between the number of wins a team has and the number of wins you'd expect a team to have based on their schedule and adjusted efficiency.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Pretty much on point, except that it's not precisely how "good" a team is at converting efficiency to wins but rather shows the "error" between the number of wins a team has and the number of wins you'd expect a team to have based on their schedule and adjusted efficiency.
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Isn't that just the mathematical explanation vs practical explanation?
 
RJKarl said:
Add to that PSU doesn't win. They have more bad losses than good wins and they lose close games. There is no rational way to make them a Top 50 team.
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Penn State has the same number of wins over top 11 teams as they do losses to teams outside the top 85.
 
There's no "error". They lost the damn games. Excuses don't make shots or win games.
 
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