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PSU Hoops - National Media Sees Chambers as Possible Manning Replacement

RJKarl said:
They underachieved human and computer rankings.

They lost in the Elite 8 as a #1 seed to a #10 seed. To get there, they beat a #16, #9 and #4. Big whoop for a #1.
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So if you perform to seed for three rounds, big whoop !
 
Maybe I've lost track of your argument, RJ. I thought your initial point was that UVA gets upset in the NCAAT (as "proven" through six NCAA appearances) because they're playing a slower pace. We started talking about that because you said that you hate numbers without context, pointing to UVA's "inability" to speed the game up.

People's response to this was that UVA is doing the same thing in the postseason as they are in the regular season, so it's more likely that in the tournament their upsets are attributable to small sample size rather than a systemic problem with UVA playing slow basketball. And again, I haven't seen anyone on here disagree that teams that play slower tempos overall are more susceptible to upsets just on the basis of smaller sample size. This does not explain why UVA, individually, suffers as a slow-paced team in the NCAAT when compared to a) their own success in the regular season and b) other slow-paced teams who have experienced success in the NCAAT.

So what is it that UVA is doing that differs from their regular season performance and from other teams that play very slow tempos? There has to be SOMETHING otherwise one of these two groups would also be experiencing poor success.
 
Has anyone run the analysis to see if teams tend to "underachieve" more relative to their ranking in the tournament the higher they are seeded? It would seem to me that playing to your ranking as a 1-2 seed, even though you get to play lower seeded teams, would be more difficult simply because you increase the number of games in a row that you need to win.
 
Ayo said:
There was a good 5 to 6-year stretch in which Jay Wright had a reputation of not being able to make it out of the first weekend. That was some solid thinking. The sample size is just too small.
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HUH? Wright has 13 NCAAT. Included in that were- 2NCs, another Final Four, an Elite 8 and two Sweet 16s.

His first six NCAAT were:

Sweet 16 - #5 Seed- Beat #4, lost to #1
Elite 8, Lost to #3 as #1
Lost in First Round - Lost to #8 as #9
Sweet 16 -#12 seed- Beat #5 and lost to #1
Final Four - #3 seed beat #1 and #2
Lost in Second Round - Lost to #10 as #2

You can't possibly compare Wright's results to Bennett's.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Maybe I've lost track of your argument, RJ. I thought your initial point was that UVA gets upset in the NCAAT (as "proven" through six NCAA appearances) because they're playing a slower pace. We started talking about that because you said that you hate numbers without context, pointing to UVA's "inability" to speed the game up.

People's response to this was that UVA is doing the same thing in the postseason as they are in the regular season, so it's more likely that in the tournament their upsets are attributable to small sample size rather than a systemic problem with UVA playing slow basketball. And again, I haven't seen anyone on here disagree that teams that play slower tempos overall are more susceptible to upsets just on the basis of smaller sample size. This does not explain why UVA, individually, suffers as a slow-paced team in the NCAAT when compared to a) their own success in the regular season and b) other slow-paced teams who have experienced success in the NCAAT.

So what is it that UVA is doing that differs from their regular season performance and from other teams that play very slow tempos? There has to be SOMETHING otherwise one of these two groups would also be experiencing poor success.
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UVA doesn't perform in the NCAAT and because of their pace, they don't have the ability to overcome their bad performances.

By accident, a top team should have at least played to their seedings once out of four and not been totally uncompetitive in the two other events in which they were in toss-up early seeing games.
 
RJKarl said:
UVA doesn't perform in the NCAAT and because of their pace, they don't have the ability to overcome their bad performances.

By accident, a top team should have at least played to their seedings once out of four and not been totally uncompetitive in the two other events in which they were in toss-up early seeing games.
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I don't think this changes that they struggle in the NCAAT, but they have played to their seeding twice out of six appearances under Bennett (lost as a 10 seed in the first round to a 7 seed in 2012 and lost as a 5 seed in the second round to a 4 seed in 2017).

And, yet again, if teams that played slow were not able to overcome bad performances in low possession games then wouldn't you expect UVA to have a substantially worse regular season record or that other slow tempo teams would fare worse in the NCAAT compared to the regular season? Neither are true.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I don't think this changes that they struggle in the NCAAT, but they have played to their seeding twice out of six appearances under Bennett (lost as a 10 seed in the first round to a 7 seed in 2012 and lost as a 5 seed in the second round to a 4 seed in 2017).
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Which adds a data point to my question above. Every other trip to the tournament for Bennett has been as a #1 (3 times) or #2 (once) seed, which requires winning a number of games in a row to play to their seed. UVA under Bennett supports my hypothesis. Would be interesting to look at the data across all teams over time.
 
Jay Wright had the following 6 year run:

2010: #2 seed lost to #10 seed St. Mary's in the second round.
2011: #9 seed lost to #8 seed George Mason in the first round
2012: No tournament
2013: #9 seed lost to #8 seed UNC in the first round
2014: #2 seed lost to #7 seed UCONN in the second round
2015: #1 seed lost to #8 seed NC State in the second round

Six year tourney run, which included 3 times seeded as #1 or #2: overall record 3-5. The 3 wins were over 15 seed Robert Morris, 15 seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 16 seed Lafayette. Losses to a #10 seed, 3 #8 seeds and 1 #7 seed. Ayo never said that it was the start of his career. The point is that good coaches can have bad tourney runs.
 
Mike Brey might be a good example of a bad tournament coach who changed that by getting to a couple Elite 8s.

Wakeforest22890 said:
I don't think this changes that they struggle in the NCAAT, but they have played to their seeding twice out of six appearances under Bennett (lost as a 10 seed in the first round to a 7 seed in 2012 and lost as a 5 seed in the second round to a 4 seed in 2017).
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Michigan State was also a 2 1/2 point fave over them in 2014 (UVa covered!) and IIRC the seed expectation for a #1 seed is 3.5 wins, so an Elite 8 in 2016 is dang close to what they would have been expected to do. Maybe they get that Final Four appearance this year -- I'm betting they do
 
Pilchard said:
Jay Wright had the following 6 year run:

2010: #2 seed lost to #10 seed St. Mary's in the second round.
2011: #9 seed lost to #8 seed George Mason in the first round
2012: No tournament
2013: #9 seed lost to #8 seed UNC in the first round
2014: #2 seed lost to #7 seed UCONN in the second round
2015: #1 seed lost to #8 seed NC State in the second round

Six year tourney run, which included 3 times seeded as #1 or #2: overall record 3-5. The 3 wins were over 15 seed Robert Morris, 15 seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 16 seed Lafayette. Losses to a #10 seed, 3 #8 seeds and 1 #7 seed. Ayo never said that it was the start of his career. The point is that good coaches can have bad tourney runs.
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But of course you neglected his previous success and and his winning two NCs outside of your cherry-picked data.

This is as opposed to Bennett's ENTIRE history at UVA. Bennett has no history of success at UVA vs. Wright having great success on both ends of your "run".

Come back when Bennett can even sniff Wright's post season success.
 
RJKarl said:
But of course you neglected his previous success and and his winning two NCs outside of your cherry-picked data.

This is as opposed to Bennett's ENTIRE history at UVA. Bennett has no history of success at UVA vs. Wright having great success on both ends of your "run".

Come back when Bennett can even sniff Wright's post season success.
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I believe the point is merely "here's a six year sample."
 
RJ,

There was no claim that Tony Bennett and Jay Wright have had identical careers.

There is no doubt that Jay Wright with his NC titles and Final 4 appearances is a more accomplished coach than Tony Bennett. Ayo simply made the point the Wright went through a period of poor NCAA tournament results (FWIW, so has Bill Self, Coach K and Mark Few among essentially every NCAA coach), like Bennett's current run.
 
RJKarl said:
But of course you neglected his previous success and and his winning two NCs outside of your cherry-picked data.

This is as opposed to Bennett's ENTIRE history at UVA. Bennett has no history of success at UVA vs. Wright having great success on both ends of your "run".

Come back when Bennett can even sniff Wright's post season success.
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Your reading comprehension is just so poor.
 
Pilchard said:
RJ,

There was no claim that Tony Bennett and Jay Wright have had identical careers.

There is no doubt that Jay Wright with his NC titles and Final 4 appearances is a more accomplished coach than Tony Bennett. Ayo simply made the point the Wright went through a period of poor NCAA tournament results (FWIW, so has Bill Self, Coach K and Mark Few among essentially every NCAA coach), like Bennett's current run.
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But each of those you mention HAD success, Bennett hasn't. In eight tries (2 at WSU and 6 @UVA), Bennett has NEVER beaten a higher or equal seed. That's why it's apples to oranges.
 
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That's explained by the fact that Bennett's teams have never been seeded worse than a #5 (even at Wazzu; except in 2010 as noted below), and have been a #1 seed three times (when its impossible to beat a higher seeded team). Jay Wright has beaten a higher seeded team only twice (both in 2016) in the last decade. Bennett has only had two chances to beat a higher seeded team over his 9 years at UVA. K hasn't beaten a higher seeded team in more than 18 years. He has lost his last 4 games in that role (when his team had the worse seed than the opponent).
 
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They were a #10 in 2012, but otherwise that is correct
 
I said higher or equal...but that wouldn't apply to Bennett as he has failed in every NCAAT he's coached. You can contort yourself all you like to come up with "reasons" but actual results matter far more than predictive theories...
 
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