Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
Depends on if you’re looking at past results or attempting to predict success moving forward
PSU Hoops - National Media Sees Chambers as Possible Manning Replacement
- Thread starter Frosty
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
DeaconSig
Well-known member
Jesus.
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
No that's not how any of this works.
KP is a predictive system not a reactive one. Google "predictive analytics" and read about it.
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
PSU Hoops - Top 50 Team, B1G Cellar Dweller, or Both
The reason KP is good for looking at coaches and analyzing teams moving forward is that it ignores the results of games and is solely looking at points per possession adjusted for strength of each opponent (and this strength is broken down into offense and defense - not simply "this team is X ranked in the country").
The overarching point is that regardless of if a team is 25-0 or 20-5, where the team that is 25-0 may be ranked as the top team in the country based on the results of the games they have played, the 20-5 team may actually be better moving forward based on the data you have for both teams. The most simple explanation of this would be (taken to an extreme) that the 25-0 team beat a bunch of bad teams by a close margin while the 20-5 team beat a bunch of very good teams by a bigger margin, destroyed bad teams, and lost five very close games.
Better yet, RJ just read KP’s own explanation of his system from 15 years ago:
“The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.
The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.”
The reason KP is good for looking at coaches and analyzing teams moving forward is that it ignores the results of games and is solely looking at points per possession adjusted for strength of each opponent (and this strength is broken down into offense and defense - not simply "this team is X ranked in the country").
The overarching point is that regardless of if a team is 25-0 or 20-5, where the team that is 25-0 may be ranked as the top team in the country based on the results of the games they have played, the 20-5 team may actually be better moving forward based on the data you have for both teams. The most simple explanation of this would be (taken to an extreme) that the 25-0 team beat a bunch of bad teams by a close margin while the 20-5 team beat a bunch of very good teams by a bigger margin, destroyed bad teams, and lost five very close games.
Better yet, RJ just read KP’s own explanation of his system from 15 years ago:
“The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place. There are enough systems out there that rank teams based on what is “good” by just about any definition you can think of. So I’d encourage you to google college basketball ratings or even try the opinion polls for something that is more your style.
The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.”
Last edited:
Frosty
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2012
- Messages
- 6,697
- Reaction score
- 4,837
Do you know who has won a post-season tournament? Pat Chambers.
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
So if and when UVA makes a final four will you STFU about this idiotic line of logic or will you say "well he's ONLY made one final four?"
How many years will we have to suffer through this dumb paradigm with you?
You Da King!!!
The "dumb paradigm" is to neglect a long history. It will change it a bit, but one out of nine is still not great. He could get there, but he's not close yet.
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
Big home game tonight against Maryland. With a win our Lions can sneak into a T8 in the top conference in America.
Maryland (a top 20 team) is only a 1.5 point favorite. Pretty weird since they’re playing a terrible team huh RJ? You should be all over this line.
Maryland (a top 20 team) is only a 1.5 point favorite. Pretty weird since they’re playing a terrible team huh RJ? You should be all over this line.
With a win, they will move to the ACC?
Anyone who says the Big 10 is the "top conference in America" can't be taken seriously.
How many times do I have to post I very, very, very, very rarely bet individual sports games before you pay attention.
Ranking of conferences by AdjEM of team that's expected to go .500 in conference play
Conference Rating Conference
1 Big Ten Conference +17.37
2 Big 12 Conference +16.99
3 Atlantic Coast Conference +16.12
4 Southeastern Conference +14.41
5 Big East Conference +11.38
6 American Athletic Conference +7.34
7 Pac 12 Conference +7.14
8 West Coast Conference +4.98
9 Mid American Conference +4.24
10 Southern Conference +1.08
11 Mountain West Conference +0.73
12 Ivy League +0.60
13 Atlantic 10 Conference +0.58
14 Western Athletic Conference -0.48
15 Sun Belt Conference -0.82 31
16 Conference USA -0.89 32
netflixnchildres
Well-known member
I'll take the Fighting Turtles in this one.
I don't care what that says. The B10 is not the best conference in the country.
wsc8521s
Rusty Larue
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2011
- Messages
- 17,099
- Reaction score
- 824
RacerDeac
#iwasright #rjlies
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2011
- Messages
- 16,689
- Reaction score
- 1,744
"I don't care about objective data and facts. My feelings are what matter."
RJ the millennial.