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2020 Republican Presidential Nominees

Deacfreak07 said:
Are the GOP still planning to have primaries?
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You'd think that the great macho hero of the GOP would enjoy having a primary challenger that he could taunt and clobber, and then gloat over his victory in person and on social media. But no, he's so insecure, that the thought of any primary challenge gets him upset, so many state Republican parties are trying to abolish their own presidential primaries so that no one can run against him. Typical.
 
I don't see where he explicitly says "running as a Republican" but here he goes:

 
He's explicitly running as a Republican. Heard him on On Point this morning. Pretty boilerplate Republican stuff that wouldn't stand out in any other Republican primary.
 
I can't wait for all of the Weld voters to get on their high horses when they vote third party in the general and Trump wins again.
 
Strickland33 said:
I can't wait for all of the Weld voters to get on their high horses when they vote third party in the general and Trump wins again.
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I don't understand your post. Weld is running in the Pub primary, not as an independent in the general. Weld is a never Trumper Pub, like Will, Frum and Brooks. Never Trumper Pubs will vote for Weld in the Pub primary and do 1 of 4 things in the general: (1) suck it up and vote Trump even though they hate him; (2) vote Dem; (3) vote 3rd party; or (4) refrain from voting for Prez and just vote down ballot. Never Trumper Pubs who opt for choices 2, 3 or 4 are helping whoever the Dem nominee is. You do realize never Trumper Pubs as a group are folks who have voted Pub their whole lives until Trump, right?

I find Weld's announcement interesting as to how this affects Larry Hogan's decision as to whether to enter the race. Weld, Hogan and Baker are essentially the same person - popular Pub governors of very blue states who don't care for today's Pub social issues. There is no reason for a second person like that enter the Pub race. Maybe Weld by announcing early is trying to nudge Hogan or get him to be his veep right off the bat. Or maybe Hogan is passing because of health issues - he's had a bout with cancer.
 
Hogan and Baker should go ahead and endorse Weld to get the ball rolling.
 
cville deac said:
I don't understand your post. Weld is running in the Pub primary, not as an independent in the general. Weld is a never Trumper Pub, like Will, Frum and Brooks. Never Trumper Pubs will vote for Weld in the Pub primary and do 1 of 4 things in the general: (1) suck it up and vote Trump even though they hate him; (2) vote Dem; (3) vote 3rd party; or (4) refrain from voting for Prez and just vote down ballot. Never Trumper Pubs who opt for choices 2, 3 or 4 are helping whoever the Dem nominee is. You do realize never Trumper Pubs as a group are folks who have voted Pub their whole lives until Trump, right?

I find Weld's announcement interesting as to how this affects Larry Hogan's decision as to whether to enter the race. Weld, Hogan and Baker are essentially the same person - popular Pub governors of very blue states who don't care for today's Pub social issues. There is no reason for a second person like that enter the Pub race. Maybe Weld by announcing early is trying to nudge Hogan or get him to be his veep right off the bat. Or maybe Hogan is passing because of health issues - he's had a bout with cancer.
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Seems to me that anything but option 2 either helps or enables Trump.
 
DeacHead said:
I don't see where he explicitly says "running as a Republican" but here he goes:

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I read this as WEED 2020 at first pass. I'd vote for that.
 
birdman said:
Seems to me that anything but option 2 either helps or enables Trump.
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Registered Pubs who vote but don't vote for Trump helps the Dem nominee. Of course it's more helpful if they vote Dem. Given the high negatives that both Trump and Hillary had, the numbers in 2016 that voted independent were still rather small. Johnson got 3%, and Stein got 1%, both a little more than the Libs and Greens normally get, but not drastically more. I'd expect both of those numbers to recede in 2020 because 2020 will hopefully be a referendum on Trump, especially with the Libs likely running 2 folks with a lot less name recognition than Johnson and Weld. So as long as Dems show up and vote Dem in 2020, I'm happy with any significant number of Pubs not voting for Trump. Assuming the Libs get something around 1%, that means the Dem should get most of those votes. (Though I'd bet most of those Establishment Pub types live mostly in the NE and on the West Coast. So it probably helps the Dem popular vote % more than it does the EC. Yet more reason to abolish the EC.)
 
I don’t understand your point, cville. My point was that the last election taught us that Pubs overwhelming fall in line and when they don’t, they either abstain or vote third party. Weld gives them a chance to do so again while maintaining moral high ground when Trump gets re-elected.
 
Strickland33 said:
I don’t understand your point, cville. My point was that the last election taught us that Pubs overwhelming fall in line and when they don’t, they either abstain or vote third party. Weld gives them a chance to do so again while maintaining moral high ground when Trump gets re-elected.
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Weld is running against him in the primary, not the general. Assuming Trump wins the primary, in the general, registered Pubs will have to vote for Trump, the Dem or the Lib. As I said, I expect the Lib vote to be down a bit, so my hope is that the Dem gets most of those never Trumper votes. Whether there are enough never Trumpers out there in the swing states to make a difference, that is another question.
 
cville deac said:
Weld is running against him in the primary, not the general. Assuming Trump wins the primary, in the general, registered Pubs will have to vote for Trump, the Dem or the Lib. As I said, I expect the Lib vote to be down a bit, so my hope is that the Dem gets most of those never Trumper votes. Whether there are enough never Trumpers out there in the swing states to make a difference, that is another question.
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I’m sure he’ll have plenty of write-in votes. That’s all I mean. I agree with you re: the larger question.
 
There are very few write-ins. They're always well under 1%. The only 3rd party or independent candidates who generate 1% or more are libertarians, maybe Greens and the occasional Nader, Anderson or Perot.

If Weld is the only serious opposition to Trump, and Kasich doesn't muck this up by getting in, I'll be interested in seeing what the primary numbers are. I mean, I fully expect Trump to prevail in the primary, but the numbers will be telling. Is Trump beating Weld by 90-10% in most states, or is it more like 70-30%? If it's the latter, then that suggests there should be more crossover next Fall, well, depending on how palatable the Dem nominee is to those establishment Pub types. And it's not even in all the states - most states are irrelevant because they're either solidly red or blue. The primaries to pay attention to are NV, MN, IA, WI, MI, PA, VA, NC and FL.
 
Donald’s approval rating with Republicans is 87 percent. He will romp in the south especially and most of the Midwest.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Donald’s approval rating with Republicans is 87 percent. He will romp in the south especially and most of the Midwest.
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Does that account for people who prior to 2016 identified as Republican and no longer do?
 
DeaconCav06 said:
Does that account for people who prior to 2016 identified as Republican and no longer do?
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I’m guessing that they ask how you self identify. Phone polling isn’t usually that complex of a process.
 
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