• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Has Blogersodear given up on new basketball coach?

So, it's more that you don't like Kelsey than the actual experience which you can't dispute.

I don’t care about ability as an assistant coach since we’re hiring a head coach. Nothing against Kelsey but he is worse than 5-7 top candidates.
 
Right, but beating the mean by 5 spots on KP doesn't mean very much. I think it's going to take more than "simple analysis" to ascertain what this means, which is why I was asking for a definition.

LOL. I think "simple" for you is different than "simple" for me.

I looked at Kenpom rankings over the last 5 years. I look the AdjEM for each team and ranked it within conference with a z-score. Now this is conference overall not within season, so these are teams with a z-score >= 2.0 meaning their AdjEM is better than about 98% of their conference over the last 5 years.

For what it's worth, Duke has the highest z-score on this list meaning they outperformed the last 5 years of their conference more than any other team has done.

SeasonRkTeamConfConfNumWLAdjEMNAdjEM
20191DukeACC222-236.032.3952
20192VirginiaACC221-235.602.0219
20193GonzagaWCC3224-234.582.2433
201918NevadaMWC2023-121.522.2797
201924BuffaloMAC1721-319.202.3126
201932WoffordSC2622-416.982.2433
201940LipscombASun520-516.132.1661
2019117RadfordBSth1018-75.082.2656
20181Villanova 1BE836-433.762.2433
20184Cincinnati 2Amer431-526.602.2932
201860New Mexico St. 12WAC3128-612.922.1661
201862Murray St. 12OVC2226-612.192.3126
201872Montana 14BSky926-810.402.3062
201878South Dakota St. 12Sum2928-710.202.1938
20178Wichita St. 10MVC1931-526.142.2433
201743Middle Tennessee 12CUSA1331-514.952.3699
201759UNC Wilmington 12CAA1229-612.462.2433
201763Vermont 13AE329-611.672.2026
201776Bucknell 13Pat2426-99.382.2433
201781Monmouth 4MAAC1627-78.612.2797
20163Kansas 1B12733-529.672.2433
201631VCU 10A10125-1117.072.3699
201641Stephen F. Austin 14Slnd2828-615.622.3425
201642Valparaiso 1Horz1430-715.462.2356
201647Yale 12Ivy1523-714.332.1564
201656Arkansas Little Rock 12SB2530-513.242.2998
201660Hawaii 13BW1128-612.162.2026
2016178Texas Southern 8SWAC3018-15-1.262.2433
20151Kentucky 1SEC2738-136.912.3699
20152Wisconsin 1B10636-433.722.3699
20154Arizona 2P122334-432.362.3126
2015104North Carolina Central 7MEAC1825-86.002.3367
2015157St. Francis NY 8NEC2123-120.622.2433


For shits and giggles, Wake this year has a z-score of -1.81, the lowest under Manning. UNCG is 1.21 this year and 1.32 last year.
 
Woof, some of those guys should be in your red flag. Turner, Grant and Alexander seem reasonable...but the other 2 have never even made the NCAA tournament and have nothing notable going for them.

What’s your list?

If you name 15-20 guys you realize what is actually out there.
 
Good stuff Ph. Also shows just how good Duke, UVa and the zags all are this year
 
Alright, so which coaches on those teams have been there for 3+ years/overachieved/are still there? A quick glance shows teams who have had coaching turnover because they are already on P5 team.

Casey Alexander looks really good at Lipscomb.
 
it’s silly how much attention is paid to miller and kelsey.

how about guys like mike rhoades, bob richey or craig smith
 
Miller definitely isn't worthy of his own tier, he has not done near enough to earn that
 
Alright, so which coaches on those teams have been there for 3+ years/overachieved/are still there? A quick glance shows teams who have had coaching turnover because they are already on P5 team.

Casey Alexander looks really good at Lipscomb.

Also shows a few teams who are BAAAAD this year.
 
Miller definitely isn't worthy of his own tier, he has not done near enough to earn that

He's in his own tier because of his age, his experience, his ties to the ACC, and the realistic odds we have of landing him.
 
Alright, so which coaches on those teams have been there for 3+ years/overachieved/are still there? A quick glance shows teams who have had coaching turnover because they are already on P5 team.

Casey Alexander looks really good at Lipscomb.

Dude, I'm not going to write your columns for you. If you want me to do some analyses for you, ask me. If you want me to use data more detailed than the Kenpom frontpage, send me your Kenpom subscription.
 
Dude, I'm not going to write your columns for you. If you want me to do some analyses for you, ask me. If you want me to use data more detailed than the Kenpom frontpage, send me your Kenpom subscription.

by the way
 
Dude, I'm not going to write your columns for you. If you want me to do some analyses for you, ask me. If you want me to use data more detailed than the Kenpom frontpage, send me your Kenpom subscription.

You are truly insufferable. I'm not asking you to "write my columns for me".

My primary point is to prove to you that you aren't the only one who does the damn research, but you can't wrap your head around the notion that anything other than what is done on your timeframe or your way is worth anything.

I've done the research. I know the answers, that's why I am asking you why you think you know more about it than I do.
 
But by all means, continue on with your condescension if it makes you feel better.
 
He's in his own tier because of his age, his experience, his ties to the ACC, and the realistic odds we have of landing him.
So move his tier down a bit. I think most just disagree with the idea that Miller is the 6th best option for Wake in all of college basketball. Even if you keep Musselman and Oats in the homerun tier, a guy with no P6 experience and a single Top 100 finish shouldn't be the next best choice after "homerun" just because of a bunch of intangibles/connections that have little to do with how well he'd do the job.
 
Who said Miller was the 6th best option in all of college basketball?

I would take 50 different guys over Miller, but most of them are 100% unrealistic. The home run tier had at least some semblance in my mind of reality that we could possibly land them if they became available or we provided the right money/contract details.
 
He's in his own tier because of his age, his experience, his ties to the ACC, and the realistic odds we have of landing him.

You've established that. Those are not reasons to put him in his own tier.

Hire the best coach. It is a very good job and there are lots of "realistic" candidates, and only a handful of not realistic ones
 
You've established that. Those are not reasons to put him in his own tier.

Hire the best coach. It is a very good job and there are lots of "realistic" candidates, and only a handful of not realistic ones

Alright, who should we get?
 
Nate Oats. I've established why I completely disagree with why you labeled him unrealistic. Feel free to go back and re-read
 
Alright, who should we get?

Is your use of the word realistic based on your opinion or is it based on sources/insider knowledge?

That seems like a distinction to make clearer before you lose your shit.
 
Back
Top