Pilchard
Well-known member
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- May 3, 2011
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Hope ESPNU survives the ratings hit resulting from being forced to air WF in prime time. Hard to imagine a more unappealing product than WF men's basketball right now. Every game is over in the first 5 minutes, and the poor broadcasters have already exhausted every imaginable positive story about this team (the father-son Childress connection often leading to the Sharone Wright Sr. and Jr. discussion; the Hoard/Sarr French Connection and, of course, NBA scouts are present to evaluate Jalen; Smart transferred from Buffalo and "watch out for Nate Oats ballclub in March", Ryan Horn's grooming, and of course, in garbage time -- #40 Anthony Bilas is the son of ESPN colleague Jay Bilas).
Anyway on to the ND game, after tonight's loss... I mean game, WF will have played everyone in the conference except for Cuse.
Record: 13-12 (3-9) #79. Disappointing season in South Bend. ND got off to rough start losing to Radford early in the season, suffered a series of injuries, and has never returned to form. ND has only two top 100 wins (#10 Purdue and #63 Illinois - when they were playing like crap), but those came before the ND suffered its final set of injuries. Since ACC play started, ND has only beaten the dregs: BC twice (by 3 and 6) and GT (by 10). ND also lost to GT. The Irish are 2-4 at home in conference play, and are coming off a 6 point loss at UVA.
Offense: Ordinary at best. ND is #11 in the ACC on offense. While Mike Brey's teams are typically efficient on offense, this team just does not have the experience and the scorers of previous Irish editions. ND only shoots only 29% from 3 (only WF is worse), and only 43% from 2 (and yes, only WF is worse) in ACC games. The Irish's primary strength on offense is that they don't commit TOs (only 15% turnover rate #1 in the ACC). The Irish also plays at a slow tempo as they are 12th in the ACC average possession length (shortest to longest). In the event the game is close, ND does shoot FTs well (76% #3 in the ACC), but they don't get to the line often (13th in conference).
Defense: Bad, but somehow better than WF. ND is #14 out of 15 teams on defense (WF holding up its end -- DFL in ACC defense). ND does not defend the arc (#13 in 3 PT FG% defense) or the inside (#11 in 2 PT% defense). They also force few turnovers (#15 in TO% defense). ND's one strength on defense is that they do not foul often (#1 in FTA/FGA defense). The good news is that the lack of fouls should make for a fast game which can be forgotten even quicker. ND plays a mix of man and zone. Jalen Hoard is a bad match up for ND, and WF has struggled from deep; so, we may seem a lot of zone from ND.
Lineup: The Irish lost their depth to injuries, and as a result, they heavily rely on their starters. Against UVA, ND's starting PG, Prentiss Hubb, played 40 minutes and 4 of the 5 starters played 30+ minutes. In that game, ND started: 6-3 Fr. PG Hubb, 6-3 Jr. SG TJ Gibbs, 6-6 SF So. DJ Harvey, 6-7 F Jr. Nikola Djogo, 6-9 C Jr. John Mooney. Off the bench, ND plays former WF recruit 6-10 Fr. Nate Laszewski, 6-6 Fr. Dane Goodwin, and 6-11 UCONN transfer Juwan Durham. Even though they don't hit a high percentage from deep, ND still takes a lot of threes (and they miss a lot of 3s). ND's Center, Mooney shoots the highest percentage from behind the arc - 38%. DJ Harvey (29%) and Hubb (27%) have particularly struggled from 3.
Bottom Line: Last year's ND game was the last straw for me (yes, I was later than most). WF blew a 69-60 lead with 8 minutes to go as WF continued its history of late game collapses under Danny Manning. Don't think WF will be in a position to blow a late lead tonight. KP projects a 75-64 ND win. Vegas, which has taken a beating by bettors going against WF (WF is 1-5 ATS over its last 6) also has the line at 11 even though ND hasn't won a game by that margin since December 20, and that includes a 7 point win over #346 Coppin State. I would shade the under 139.5 as both teams struggle to score, and WF will let ND dictate tempo.
Anyway on to the ND game, after tonight's loss... I mean game, WF will have played everyone in the conference except for Cuse.
Record: 13-12 (3-9) #79. Disappointing season in South Bend. ND got off to rough start losing to Radford early in the season, suffered a series of injuries, and has never returned to form. ND has only two top 100 wins (#10 Purdue and #63 Illinois - when they were playing like crap), but those came before the ND suffered its final set of injuries. Since ACC play started, ND has only beaten the dregs: BC twice (by 3 and 6) and GT (by 10). ND also lost to GT. The Irish are 2-4 at home in conference play, and are coming off a 6 point loss at UVA.
Offense: Ordinary at best. ND is #11 in the ACC on offense. While Mike Brey's teams are typically efficient on offense, this team just does not have the experience and the scorers of previous Irish editions. ND only shoots only 29% from 3 (only WF is worse), and only 43% from 2 (and yes, only WF is worse) in ACC games. The Irish's primary strength on offense is that they don't commit TOs (only 15% turnover rate #1 in the ACC). The Irish also plays at a slow tempo as they are 12th in the ACC average possession length (shortest to longest). In the event the game is close, ND does shoot FTs well (76% #3 in the ACC), but they don't get to the line often (13th in conference).
Defense: Bad, but somehow better than WF. ND is #14 out of 15 teams on defense (WF holding up its end -- DFL in ACC defense). ND does not defend the arc (#13 in 3 PT FG% defense) or the inside (#11 in 2 PT% defense). They also force few turnovers (#15 in TO% defense). ND's one strength on defense is that they do not foul often (#1 in FTA/FGA defense). The good news is that the lack of fouls should make for a fast game which can be forgotten even quicker. ND plays a mix of man and zone. Jalen Hoard is a bad match up for ND, and WF has struggled from deep; so, we may seem a lot of zone from ND.
Lineup: The Irish lost their depth to injuries, and as a result, they heavily rely on their starters. Against UVA, ND's starting PG, Prentiss Hubb, played 40 minutes and 4 of the 5 starters played 30+ minutes. In that game, ND started: 6-3 Fr. PG Hubb, 6-3 Jr. SG TJ Gibbs, 6-6 SF So. DJ Harvey, 6-7 F Jr. Nikola Djogo, 6-9 C Jr. John Mooney. Off the bench, ND plays former WF recruit 6-10 Fr. Nate Laszewski, 6-6 Fr. Dane Goodwin, and 6-11 UCONN transfer Juwan Durham. Even though they don't hit a high percentage from deep, ND still takes a lot of threes (and they miss a lot of 3s). ND's Center, Mooney shoots the highest percentage from behind the arc - 38%. DJ Harvey (29%) and Hubb (27%) have particularly struggled from 3.
Bottom Line: Last year's ND game was the last straw for me (yes, I was later than most). WF blew a 69-60 lead with 8 minutes to go as WF continued its history of late game collapses under Danny Manning. Don't think WF will be in a position to blow a late lead tonight. KP projects a 75-64 ND win. Vegas, which has taken a beating by bettors going against WF (WF is 1-5 ATS over its last 6) also has the line at 11 even though ND hasn't won a game by that margin since December 20, and that includes a 7 point win over #346 Coppin State. I would shade the under 139.5 as both teams struggle to score, and WF will let ND dictate tempo.
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