Danny was never a slam dunk hire. There were many of us (me included) that thought he was a decent risk to take. The general feeling was that he would do well on the recruiting trail due to inherent advantages, and that if his coaching growth came around by 3-4 we could be in a much better position as a program. That thought process was pretty solid as the recruiting was picking up, the NCAA tournament birth came, but then Manning never improved as a coach. If he had improved even modestly we would have probably made the tournament (or at least the NIT) last year, we would have held on to most of our talent, and this year's team would have been an NCAA tournament team as well. Its a thin margin, and that is why you have to pay a coach if he is a sure thing. If not you are stuck making 1.5 million dollar bets on guys who are still very much a crapshoot.
But no, I don't think anyone (certainly not me) thought that Danny was a sure thing, more a decent bet considering the shape of our program at the time.