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Shaka to Wake? It may be happening

He's not coming to Wake.
Too much early public discussion for that to happen.
Whoever we get will be kept quiet until it's announced.
 
I'm pretty sure all WF basketball coaches hired in the modern era have a combined total of 1 NCAA tournament win (Skip's '96-'97 Xavier team made the round of 32) when Wake hired them. One.

Shaka has seven.

lol at anyone thinking this wouldn't be a grand slam hire.

+1
 
He's not coming to Wake.
Too much early public discussion for that to happen.
Whoever we get will be kept quiet until it's announced.

Tend to agree with this. I do, though, have a gut feeling that Currie has his man picked out--may not get him, but I bet he has his first choice selected.
 
I'm pretty sure all WF basketball coaches hired in the modern era have a combined total of 1 NCAA tournament win (Skip's '96-'97 Xavier team made the round of 32) when Wake hired them. One.

Shaka has seven.

lol at anyone thinking this wouldn't be a grand slam hire.

Eh, I rated it "Nice". Before Texas it would have been a "YES!" hire, but you can't just ignore that he was pretty mediocre at an arguably better job than Wake (I would say it might be harder to actually win there though, given the depth of the Big 12 - there are no easy wins in that conference).
 
He's had Texas in the top 25 for at least part of the season 3 out of his 4 seasons. He's got about 120 more career wins than Danny Manning vs. the same number of losses, and that's against a significantly higher SOS at both stops. The defensive and offensive rankings of his teams are hundreds of spots higher than Danny's. Shaka Smart is a huge upgrade over what we've had since Skip. Is hiring him an auto-Natty, or even an auto-ACC Tourney championship, of course not (there is no such hire, of course). Is it probable that he would significantly upgrade our program and get us back to respectability, top-25 rankings, and some measure of post-season success? Yes.

All that said I agree with the sentiment that we can't have nice things and so this is very unlikely to happen. But if it does, anyone who gives it a "meh" is crazy.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/shaka-smart-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/danny-manning-1.html
 
I was in the "meh" category just based on his tenure at Texas but I'm starting to come around as people are making good arguments for.

I'm intrigued with Oates and would prefer him over Matta I think. Think Oates has more upside that either Shaka or Matta.

But let's get real. I'm tempering all excitement because we know Wake can't have nice things and it's almost certain the hire will be underwhelming. I'll be excited if we get any one of Matta, Oats or Shaka, but we'll probably end up with a Miller, Odom or Kelsey type hire.
 
There is certainly a scenario where this can happen - think Georgia Tech / Memphis and Josh Pastner a few years ago. Both coach and school are stuck with each other because of the buyout, unless another school comes along that allows for everyone to save face and $.

I'm sure Texas wants to hire Chris Beard (an alum) so they may be be willing to let Shaka walk without firing him, while contributing some amount of money to make it happen.
 
Though skeptical of his success at Texas(whos only megstive seems to be being in the same conference as kansas)...but this guy will get a 2nd chance somewhere. and he is going to be working his ass off to regain his reputation. is it a good time for wake to take a risk like that? idk, but it could be pure gold if it worked out amd k/roy retire within the next 3 years.
 
I was in the "meh" category just based on his tenure at Texas but I'm starting to come around as people are making good arguments for.

I'm intrigued with Oates and would prefer him over Matta I think. Think Oates has more upside that either Shaka or Matta.

But let's get real. I'm tempering all excitement because we know Wake can't have nice things and it's almost certain the hire will be underwhelming. I'll be excited if we get any one of Matta, Oats or Shaka, but we'll probably end up with a Miller, Odom or Kelsey type hire.

Makes sense - this is where i am.
 
Tend to agree with this. I do, though, have a gut feeling that Currie has his man picked out--may not get him, but I bet he has his first choice selected.

Ron is making that decision, remember? He's in charge.
 
Shaka's last 4 seasons at Texas are roughly equivalent to Rick Barnes last 4 seasons at Texas:

Barnes KP ratings 2012-5 (32, 94, 41, 24)
Smart's KP ratings 2016-9 (39,70, 36, 27)

Barnes took 3 of his 4 last teams to the NCAAs. Those teams won one NCAA game.

Smart took 2 of his 3 last teams to the NCAAs. His current team would likely be in had TX not suspended the Horns' best player for the last 6 games. They still could get in with a run in the Big 12 tourney.

Barnes has turned out to be a solid hire for TN. :cool:

WF is not hiring Tony Bennett or Mark Few. Among the available candidates, hard to find anyone that has taken 7 of his 8 teams to the NCAAs. Smart's record shows that he knows what he is doing, and he's still just 41 (younger than Nate Oats, John Brannen, Russell Turner, Steve Forbes). Lots of miles left on the tires. Always risk with any hire, but Shaka to WF is about as good as anyone could reasonably expect.
 
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Presuming UT is over Shaka and that Shaka likewise wouldn't mind sneaking back to the East coast, it really would make sense for everyone involved. Our interest in paying Shaka is what would give him and UT the opportunity to negotiate a reduced buy-out and get rid of each other (i.e., UT would agree to "fire" Shaka and accept some form of consideration in return for Shaka agreeing to waive some portion of his buy-out rights; it could even be something where Shaka agrees to take less in exchange for receiving the now-lesser amount on an accelerated schedule or in a lump sum, and/or waiving other termination or post-termination rights he currently has).

I get some of the meh feelings toward Shaka based on his W/L record at UT, but I still would characterize him as an absolute home run hire for us. Five years ago, before we eventually hired DM, we were all [redacted] ourselves over the prospect of snagging him from VCU. Since then he's made 3 tournaments in 5 years (assuming he doesn't this season) and generally had a shitload of bad luck, while we've sunk even further into absolute irrelevance. Now I get that there may not be a 1:1 relationship between the relative "status" of a program and of an individual coach, but even that said, I have a hard time believing we'd be anything but incredibly lucky to have a coach like Shaka at Wake.

In addition, as others have pointed out, second chances for those who've stumbled in recent big-conference gigs may be Currie's MO; he hired Bruce Weber following by far his worst season at Illinois, and Currie himself was dismissed by Tennessee. You'd think if anyone might be especially sympathetic to difficulties of translating one's success to big-time, state public school flagship behemoths with heavy donor / alumni pressure -- and the potential upside of "returning" to a smaller school -- it'd be Currie. Wouldn't be surprised if he thinks Shaka could be just as promising jumping from UT to Wake as Currie believes he himself will be doing roughly the same thing.

Now, are there other names out there at least worth checking in on? Sure, I suppose. I mean, you don't not call Matta's agent or whatever. But names like that and some of the others that we're throwing around are the exact kinds of hot, up-and-coming candidates we couldn't get 5 years ago (e.g., Mike White, Archie Miller, etc.); why TF are we going to be any more attractive now? Maybe it's the LOWF in me but ultimately I just can't shake the feeling that we'll end up with someone in the Odom, Miller, Russell Turner mold, and stuck with that feeling, I just think if there's any chance at all for negotiating Shaka to Wake (even if a few years late and with a more dings and scratches on the hood) we'd be crazy not to jump.
 
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Though skeptical of his success at Texas(whos only megstive seems to be being in the same conference as kansas)...but this guy will get a 2nd chance somewhere. and he is going to be working his ass off to regain his reputation. is it a good time for wake to take a risk like that? idk, but it could be pure gold if it worked out amd k/roy retire within the next 3 years.

Shaka would be less of a risk than anyone else that we have been talking about. I think that Matta's health is more of any issue than people are hoping it would be. And Oats hasn't done at Buffalo what Shaka did at VCU. Oats has one NCAA Tourney win. Shaka has been to the Final Four and has 6 NCAA wins. Their overall winning percentage is comparable (Oats .687 and Shaka .661) and that's including his record at Texas. And Shaka's winning percentage at VCU is much higher (.744 vs. .687)
 
Presuming UT is over Shaka and that Shaka likewise wouldn't mind sneaking back to the East coast, it really would make sense for everyone involved. Our interest in paying Shaka is what would give him and UT the opportunity to negotiate a reduced buy-out and get rid of each other (i.e., UT would agree to "fire" Shaka and accept some form of consideration in return for Shaka agreeing to waive some portion of his buy-out rights; it could even be something where Shaka agrees to take less in exchange for receiving the now-lesser amount on an accelerated schedule or in a lump sum, and/or waiving other termination or post-termination rights he currently has).

I get some of the meh feelings toward Shaka based on his W/L record at UT, but I still would characterize him as an absolute home run hire for us. Five years ago, before we eventually hired DM, we were all [redacted] ourselves over the prospect of snagging him from VCU. Since then he's made 3 tournaments in 5 years (assuming he doesn't this season) and generally had a shitload of bad luck, while we've sunk even further into absolute irrelevance. Now I get that there may not be a 1:1 relationship between the relative "status" of a program and of an individual coach, but even that said, I have a hard time believing we'd be anything but incredibly lucky to have a coach like Shaka at Wake.

In addition, as others have pointed out, second chances for those who've stumbled in recent big-conference gigs may be Currie's MO; he hired Bruce Weber following by far his worst season at Illinois, and Currie himself was dismissed by Tennessee. You'd think if anyone might be especially sympathetic to difficulties of translating one's success to big-time, state public school flagship behemoths with heavy donor / alumni pressure -- and the potential upside of "returning" to a smaller school -- it'd be Currie. Wouldn't be surprised if he thinks Shaka could be just as promising jumping from UT to Wake as Currie believes he himself will be doing roughly the same thing.

I agree with this, but VCU does not fit that smaller school, at least so far as student boy. This would be a new experience for Shaka. I absolutely think he'd be a homerun hire and along the lines of what our program needs right now. And I am hoping he sees it as what he needs too. The truth is, if we play with passion for 95% of our games over the next 5 years and have borderline top25 seasons, it would be a huge improvement and he'd be celebrated. He'd also reignite his own career and status. Not sure if he has NBA or other ambitions, but we could certainly do as much for him as he could do for us career-wise.

And we do have a little leverage if Matta and Oats are even a possibility via Currie.

It probably helps our Shaka situation that Wellman at least has had conversations with him on the last go round. If rumors are true and part of the reason he didn't come to Wake is wife's job, I chalk that up as a tentative positive. Also, we are about to enjoy the bounty of a hoops facilities upgrade thanks to CP3. That factors in as well when coaches consider jobs (and players consider schools).
 
If rumors are true and part of the reason he didn't come to Wake is wife's job, I chalk that up as a tentative positive.

Lol. It's not even a rumor. It doesn't exist outside of this board. It's something RJ made up.
 
Shaka would be less of a risk than anyone else that we have been talking about. I think that Matta's health is more of any issue than people are hoping it would be. And Oats hasn't done at Buffalo what Shaka did at VCU. Oats has one NCAA Tourney win. Shaka has been to the Final Four and has 6 NCAA wins. Their overall winning percentage is comparable (Oats .687 and Shaka .661) and that's including his record at Texas. And Shaka's winning percentage at VCU is much higher (.744 vs. .687)

I agree with this. Oats has far more risks than people seem to realize. Not every coach that has transitioned from a low/mid-major to a power conference has been a slam dunk. I'd be happy with Oats if that's who we get, but I think Shaka is a much safer choice if either of these coaches are realistic for Wake.
 
Right now (still subject to change):

Matta
Shaka
Oats (I am almost tempted to put TJ here)
 
I agree with this. Oats has far more risks than people seem to realize. Not every coach that has transitioned from a low/mid-major to a power conference has been a slam dunk. I'd be happy with Oats if that's who we get, but I think Shaka is a much safer choice if either of these coaches are realistic for Wake.
But those who have built Top 25 teams at low majors tend to fair well. I believe PH did some analysis comparing wins vs rankings and found good correlation between top 50ish ranked mid major teams and success at P6.

The man has built a team ranked 19th at Buffalo, with his own recruits. There's reason to suspect he could do similar at Wake with all of it's many advantages over Buffalo. We aren't talking about a mid major coach like Kelsey who averages a bunch of wins, but does it against some of the worst schedules in the NCAA and whose best teams barely compete with Wake's worst ever.
 
I agree with this. Oats has far more risks than people seem to realize. Not every coach that has transitioned from a low/mid-major to a power conference has been a slam dunk. I'd be happy with Oats if that's who we get, but I think Shaka is a much safer choice if either of these coaches are realistic for Wake.

I don't really follow this logic. I mean Shaka is kind of exhibit A of the phenomenon you're discussing so not sure how we can say he's a much safer choice.
 
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