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Is rj right about the hot hand and the nerds are wrong?

RJKarl said:
He's more likely to make it than a 40% shooter who is 0-4 that night.

Do you even understand the difference between a 25% and 40% shooter who take 4 spg is one make every other game? If you are sucking one night, you tend to keep sucking (I've even shown you how the greatest 3 point shooter of all time has those nights).

Sports aren't played by computers. They are played by humans. If you don't think confidence plays a major part in the game, you are clueless.
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How about a 25% shooter who is 3-5 vs. a 40% shooter who is 1-5?
 
RJKarl said:
If I were coaching, I don't want the guy who hasn't made a shot taking a big shot. Sorry, there aren't many exceptions to that rule.
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Game point RJ. Who do you want taking your final shot, Grover Washington Jr. or Walter Becker?
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Hot hands exist. Predicting when a hot hand will start or end is impossible, so it’s a terrible thing to base a decision on.

Can we just end this thread now?
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That’s not what RJ is talking about though.

Shooting a basketball is not the same as a coin flip. A players 3P% doesn’t answer the question “what are the chances player X makes this shot” in the way that 50% answers “what are the chances this coin will land on heads?”
 
Not sure 3-5 is a hot hand. I'd have to watch the game. But if the 40% shooter is 0-5, any coach would want someone else taking the big shot that night.

Thanks again for proving the point I've posted about you for years. If I say, "today is Thursday", you can't help yourself from saying, "You're wrong. It's Friday in Australia."
 
RJKarl said:
Not sure 3-5 is a hot hand. I'd have to watch the game. But if the 40% shooter is 0-5, any coach would want someone else taking the big shot that night.

Thanks again for proving the point I've posted about you for years. If I say, "today is Thursday", you can't help yourself from saying, "You're wrong. It's Friday in Australia."
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Well - that 3-5 shooter was the 3-4 shooter that you chose to take the last shot - but he missed. The 0-4 shooter got the rebound and hit the game winning shot and bailed out your poor coaching choice.
 
RJKarl said:
He's more likely to make it than a 40% shooter who is 0-4 that night.

Do you even understand the difference between a 25% and 40% shooter who take 4 spg is one make every other game? If you are sucking one night, you tend to keep sucking (I've even shown you how the greatest 3 point shooter of all time has those nights).

Sports aren't played by computers. They are played by humans. If you don't think confidence plays a major part in the game, you are clueless.
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All else being equal, this is definitely wrong in the aggregate and likely rarely true in individual situations.
 
RChildress107 said:
That’s not what RJ is talking about though.

Shooting a basketball is not the same as a coin flip. A players 3P% doesn’t answer the question “what are the chances player X makes this shot” in the way that 50% answers “what are the chances this coin will land on heads?”
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It does say what’s more likely though. And because no one can accurately predict when a hot hand is going to start or end, long term 3P% is the best predictor of who’s more likely to make their next shot.
 
RChildress107 said:
All else being equal, this is definitely wrong in the aggregate and likely rarely true in individual situations.
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You can't have it both ways. Either you believe in the hot hand existing or don't. All else isn't equal THAT NIGHT.

We're not talking about who you'd want to shoot another night or if each has the same percentage that night.
 
mako1331 said:
Game point RJ. Who do you want taking your final shot, Grover Washington Jr. or Walter Becker?
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I never played with Becker. Grover would be much more likely to set a pick or pass than take the final shot unless there was no other choice.
 
Good lord, you will have role players pretty much every third or fourth game who are having a hot night. Do you run the game deciding play for them?
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Well - that 3-5 shooter was the 3-4 shooter that you chose to take the last shot - but he missed. The 0-4 shooter got the rebound and hit the game winning shot and bailed out your poor coaching choice.
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Man, you need help.

Hell, on more than one occasion, you rudely told me you didn't even want me to agree with you.

I hope you get the help you need.
 
little wonder that rj has never been successful in anything involving numbers
 
ChrisL68 said:
Good lord, you will have role players pretty much every third or fourth game who are having a hot night. Do you run the game deciding play for them?
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If he's having a great night and the other guy sucks that night, not even a tough decision.

AGAIN, if you talking about the difference between 25% three point shooter and 40% three point shooter, it's only one make every other game. You stat nerds should understand this is so.
 
hypothetical: WFU at NCSU - 4.2 on clock, chris ellis is 4-4 from the arc on the night - does RJ draw up the play for an ellis three?
 
RJKarl said:
Man, you need help.

Hell, on more than one occasion, you rudely told me you didn't even want me to agree with you.

I hope you get the help you need.
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Before you go RJ, one more question-

Down by 2 at the end of the game, who would you rather take the shot- Klay who is 4-4 for the game or Klay who is 5-5?
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Before you go RJ, one more question-

Down by 2 at the end of the game, who would you rather take the shot- Klay who is 4-4 for the game or Klay who is 5-5?
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That's a stupid question...but thanks for showing how little you understand the game and only want to "get" RJ.
 
To the original post: The hot hand has been shown to exist with data. The reason it was tough is because trends like the chart above with Klay are not seen in the blended data. Data people were able to see finally notice the hot hand trend when controlling for shot difficulty -- turns out that when shooters make shots (especially consecutively), they begin taking progressively harder shots.

So to recap, there is truth to having a hot hand (which makes sense intuitively) but the vast, vast majority of streaks are purely driven by random chance and the belief in the hot hand actually lowers success rates. In practice, a 40% shooter who is 0-4 in a game will make his next shot very close to 40% of the time, and a 25% shooter who is 3-4 will make his next shot very close to 25% of the time. This is borne out through millions of data points, and if you disagree, you are simply wrong.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
you can negrep me, bro, but until you show otherwise there is no doubt you just don't get it
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THANKS!!! I got exactly the response it was planned to get. To show you as a whining little wuss.

The fact you don't understand this part of the game is predictable. If there wasn't a major human factor in the game, there would be no reason play them. The difference you talk about theories. I post here about results.
 
RJKarl said:
That's a stupid question...but thanks for showing how little you understand the game and only want to "get" RJ.
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Why is it stupid? Would you rather have a player (in this case Klay) who’s hit his last 4 shots, or one who has hit his last 5?
 
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