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Is rj right about the hot hand and the nerds are wrong?

RJKarl said:
I usually say that you should neither get sucked in nor play poker with palma. Buckets is getting close to that level. He's played you guys like a cheap fiddle.
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You’re the one leaving money on the table. Poker is all about playing the percentages.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
You’re the one leaving money on the table. Poker is all about playing the percentages.
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Great poker plays win by playing the players as much or more than the numbers.

Once again, you are putting numbers over having any human factor. At least you are consistent.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Let’s start with the basic question. If you know the actual three point shooting percentage of two guys is 30 and 40 percent, who do you want taking a three randomly?

Also if the hot hand exists does it provide a ten percent boost to address the above if you choose the 30 percent guy above?
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That has nothing to do with the question of the hot hand and you know it.
 
RJKarl said:
I think what you are saying is wrong. Shooting has a large confidence factor. When you get hot, the hoop looks bigger. You are more likely to make the shot.

If you haven't made a shot the entire game, you aren't going to be as loose. You are far more likely to continue missing.
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We just disagree on how large the effect is. Many statisticians now believe the hot hand is real, but most of the studies indicate the effect is pretty small. There are certainly certain players or situations where the effect is far greater.
 
RJKarl said:
Great poker plays win by playing the players as much or more than the numbers.

Once again, you are putting numbers over having any human factor. At least you are consistent.
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Text plama and ask him where he made the most money - in casinos or online.
 
H
RChildress107 said:
Que?

Player A is a 40% 3 point shooter. He shoots 46% from the right corner, 36% from the left, and 42% from the top of the arc. He’s been guarded by Robert Covington for most of the night. He’s 1-10 from three, has played 44 minutes on the second night of a back to back, and is dealing with a nagging ankle injury.

Player B is a 32% 3 point shooter. He shoots 42% from the right corner and <30% from everywhere else. He’s 6-7 from three on the night and shooting 44% over the last three games. He’s a 36% 3 point shooter at home, where you are playing tonight. He was a DNP-rest last night.


You have a play that you can run for either player that pretty much guarantees a clean look for that player from the right corner. Player A can also create his own shot from the top of the key. There are 5 seconds left and you need a three to tie.

Which of those three shots is most likely to go in.
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DistrictDeacon said:
Well you’re not talking about the hot hand anymore. Not shockingly, this is the analysis that coaches are paid to do, instead of just picking the player who has most recently made three in a row.
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I’m not?
 
RChildress107 said:
H



I’m not?
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Perhaps in the loosest sense of the word. Of course all things being equal, you’d choose the the non injured player to take the shot, as they would both be attempting shots that they have made historically at the same percentage.
 
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DistrictDeacon said:
Even when they were each playing 5-10 tables simultaneously?
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There are literally thousands and thousands of articles about the importance of playing your opponent in poker. Why are trying to deny this is a central talent to being a top player?

Man are you being a contortionist rather than admitting I could be right and you could be wrong.
 
RJKarl said:
That has nothing to do with the question of the hot hand and you know it.
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If the hot hand question isn’t playing the actual percentages what is it?

This is just a made up exercise for you to pontificate about your wrong opinions.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Perhaps in the loosest sense of the word. Of course all things being equal, you’d choose the the non injured player to take the shot, as they would both be attempting shots that they have made historically at the same percentage.
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Player A is shooting 4% higher on the year from the right corner than player B. Why not run the play for him in the right corner? Let’s say Player A isn’t injured. Does that change your answer?
 
RJKarl said:
There are literally thousands and thousands of articles about the importance of playing your opponent in poker. Why are trying to deny this is a central talent to being a top player?

Man are you being a contortionist rather than admitting I could be right and you could be wrong.
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I’ll let plama weigh in, as he’s the poker expert.
 
RChildress107 said:
Player A is shooting 4% higher on the year from the right corner than player B. Why not run the play for him in the right corner? Let’s say Player A isn’t injured. Does that change your answer?
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Yes. You’d run the play for the player who has a higher chance of making the shot. Since you can’t predict if the hot hand or cold hand is going to continue or is at its end, you go for player A.
 
The next intangible factor to include is "clutch." Some players can hit the big shot better than others. Some players choke. Stats be damned, I want Randolph taking my game winning shot. He's got the cojones to make it.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Jimmy's gonna be the decoy!

ill-make-it.gif
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This story took place in the 1950's. In the 1990's, it was "give me the damn ball!"
 
RJKarl said:
Even Steph gets a cold hand. In 17-18, he had games of:

1-7
1-10
1-8
2-9

He's also had games of:

0-7
0-8
0-10
0-11

But actual results don't matter.
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Here’s the Steph Curry “hot hand” numbers, copied from a reddit thread a few days ago:

Any 3 pointer 277/638 43.4%

After 1 make 114/256 44.5%

After 2 makes 47/110 42.7%

After 3 makes 20/45 44.4%

After 4 makes 10/19 52.6%

After 5 makes 3/10 30.0%

After 6 makes 1/3 33.3%

After 7 makes 0/1 0.0%




After 1 miss 149/328 45.4%

After 2 misses 74/156 47.4%

After 3 misses 36/70 51.4%

After 4 misses 16/26 61.5%

After 5 misses 9/9 100.0%
 
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