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Thread: Is rj right about the hot hand and the nerds are wrong?

  1. #81
    Like Iíve always said. Give me an 0-5 curry any day.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    Yes. Youíd run the play for the player who has a higher chance of making the shot. Since you canít predict if the hot hand or cold hand is going to continue or is at its end, you go for player A.
    So based on all of the information I gave you, you think player A has a higher chance of making that specific shot?

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    So based on all of the information I gave you, you think player A has a higher chance of making that specific shot?
    What makes you think he doesnít?

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Que?

    Player A is a 40% 3 point shooter. He shoots 46% from the right corner, 36% from the left, and 42% from the top of the arc. Heís been guarded by Robert Covington for most of the night. Heís 1-10 from three, has played 44 minutes on the second night of a back to back, and is dealing with a nagging ankle injury.

    Player B is a 32% 3 point shooter. He shoots 42% from the right corner and <30% from everywhere else. Heís 6-7 from three on the night and shooting 44% over the last three games. Heís a 36% 3 point shooter at home, where you are playing tonight. He was a DNP-rest last night.


    You have a play that you can run for either player that pretty much guarantees a clean look for that player from the right corner. Player A can also create his own shot from the top of the key. There are 5 seconds left and you need a three to tie.

    Which of those three shots is most likely to go in.
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    this is the analysis that coaches are paid to do
    just popping in to note that WF hasn't had a coach conduct this sort of analysis, one time, ever

    not saying a coach shouldn't do so - just saying no WF coach has ever done anything near this

  5. #85
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    Iíll let plama weigh in, as heís the poker expert.
    Typical...too lazy to look up anything that shows you to be wrong and me to be right.

    I couldn't program responses that prove my point about you and better than you are doing yourself.

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    What makes you think he doesnít?
    Heís tired, heís being guarded by one of the best wing defenders in the world, and both are clearly affecting his shot tonight.

    If he took 100 threes under substantially similar conditions, I would expect him to make fewer than 46.

    Meanwhile, Player B is well rested, confident, and has seen a recent uptick in his shot.

  7. #87
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    Like Iíve always said. Give me an 0-5 curry any day.
    WOW!!! Way to go out on a limb to take a "stance".

    How about an 0-5 Joe Blow from Orem, Utah who shoots 40%? Do you want him taking the shot.

  8. #88
    rj, what exactly do you mean when you say "hot hand"

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    Typical...too lazy to look up anything that shows you to be wrong and me to be right.

    I couldn't program responses that prove my point about you and better than you are doing yourself.
    Youíre fucking hysterical RJ. You put Plama up on a pedestal when it comes to poker and then try to criticize me when I say Iíd rely on his opinion.

    Maybe try viewing threads as a conversation instead of an attack on you.

  10. #90
    If anyone actually has a 40 percent three point chance and we know thatís the percentage I want them taking the three unless we know someone else has one higher. Thatís just basic math.

  11. #91

    Is rj right about the hot hand and the nerds are wrong?

    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Heís tired, heís being guarded by one of the best wing defenders in the world, and both are clearly affecting his shot tonight.

    If he took 100 threes under substantially similar conditions, I would expect him to make fewer than 46.

    Meanwhile, Player B is well rested, confident, and has seen a recent uptick in his shot.
    And what if confidence turn to overconfidence from Player B and lead to a bad miss heat check shot? What if his hot hand ends on his next shot? Unless you believe the uptick is his new normal, he will regress to his mean eventually. How do you know the regression is not starting on the play that youíre drawing up?

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    If anyone actually has a 40 percent three point chance and we know thatís the percentage I want them taking the three unless we know someone else has one higher. Thatís just basic math.
    Right. But the point is that we canít ever actually know what percentage chance a player has to hit a particular shot. We can approximate that chance to a reasonable degree of certainty, but overall 3P% typically isnít that great of an approximation on its own.

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    And what if confidence turn to overconfidence from Player B and lead to a bad miss heat check shot? What if his hot hand ends on his next shot? Unless you believe the uptick is his new normal, he will regress to his mean eventually. How do you know the regression is not starting on the play that youíre drawing up?
    Besides, your hypothetical is irrelevant to the offered scenario that includes the choice between a 25% shooter and a 40% shooter.

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    We can, because you just showed that you don't basketball.
    I loved this response right out of the gate.

    Quote Originally Posted by awaken View Post
    The next intangible factor to include is "clutch." Some players can hit the big shot better than others. Some players choke. Stats be damned, I want Randolph taking my game winning shot. He's got the cojones to make it.
    kudos to you for propertly spelling "cojones," rather than the oft-misused "cajones."

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    And what if confidence turn to overconfidence from Player B and lead to a bad miss heat check shot? What if his hot hand ends on his next shot? Unless you believe the uptick is his new normal, he will regress to his mean eventually. How do you know the regression is not starting on the play that youíre drawing up?
    Itís a designed play at the end of a game, I want whoever Iím drawing the play for to be overconfident.

    What would the evidence be that his ďhot handĒ had ended or that the regression to the mean began on the play I drew up? A missed shot? Even if everything I mentioned has bumped up his chance of making that corner 3 by 7% points, heís still more likely to miss the shot than make it.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by DistrictDeacon View Post
    Besides, your hypothetical is irrelevant to the offered scenario that includes the choice between a 25% shooter and a 40% shooter.
    No itís not. Itís just a less extreme example.

  17. #97
    But the whole point we are all making besides RJ is that it comes down to percentages as an analysis. Even if we donít know the perfect percentage.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    No itís not. Itís just a less extreme example.
    Itís one thatís worth discussing because of the closeness in percentages and other factors youíve added. But the answer to your question isnít going to be applicable to the 25 vs 40 scenario.

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    But the whole point we are all making besides RJ is that it comes down to percentages as an analysis. Even if we donít know the perfect percentage.
    Sure. But I think there is a difference between historical percentage and probability that neither side is recognizing (at least not explicitly).

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Itís a designed play at the end of a game, I want whoever Iím drawing the play for to be overconfident.

    What would the evidence be that his ďhot handĒ had ended or that the regression to the mean began on the play I drew up? A missed shot? Even if everything I mentioned has bumped up his chance of making that corner 3 by 7% points, heís still more likely to miss the shot than make it.
    And thatís the whole point. Statistics donít tell you whatís going to happen. Just whatís most likely to happen. Make it or miss it, you still chose the less likely option if you go with B.

    If you want to go with your gut, go with B. But your gut has no statically valid predictive value.

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