Page 8 of 8 FirstFirst ... 345678
Results 141 to 157 of 157

Thread: Is rj right about the hot hand and the nerds are wrong?

  1. #141
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    HB, CA
    Posts
    64,291
    I understand what you are saying and think it's total bullshit.

  2. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by awaken View Post
    So what we know about hot hands is:

    1) we can't predict when they're going to happen
    2) can't predict when they're going to end
    3) looking back at data, can't really see them
    4) we only "know" when someone is in the middle of one and it is projected it will continue despite #2
    This isnt true.

  3. #143
    this is why trump won

  4. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    I understand what you are saying and think it's total bullshit.
    you can't even say what the hot hand is

  5. #145
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    HB, CA
    Posts
    64,291
    If you have to ask, you don't understand. Everything can't be described by numbers. There is no human factor in your world in games played by humans.

    My bad, those who haven't played or coached can't understand this. But they can read numbers.

  6. #146
    Quote Originally Posted by JuiceCrewAllStar View Post
    you can't even say what the hot hand is
    Anybody who has ever played rec league ball on up can tell you what the hot hand is. Cheeto finger nerds won't understand.

  7. #147
    Hot hand, the obscenity of basketball.

  8. #148
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    HB, CA
    Posts
    64,291
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    Hot hand, the obscenity of basketball.
    Because you don't understand it or how humans impact games more than computers and don't understand that anything with a human factor can defy those numbers.

  9. #149
    I was just referencing the "I can't define it but I know it when I see it" tenor of your last post.

  10. #150
    I think that you should be forced to divulge your basketball experience along with your opinion on the existence of the hot hand, you nerds.

  11. #151
    I disagree with you
    ImTheCaptain's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    39,054
    That's all there is to this small song but
    waitress, before you leave,
    Would you bring me some coffee
    and a hot ham sandwich, please?

  12. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    If you have to ask, you don't understand. Everything can't be described by numbers. There is no human factor in your world in games played by humans.

    My bad, those who haven't played or coached can't understand this. But they can read numbers.
    well how can we argue if something does or doesn't exist if you can't even say what it is?

    you can never be wrong if you don't have a definition on the record

  13. #153
    To all my nerds out there.

    Do you not think confidence plays a factor in a players ability to preform, and do you then also think recent short term successes increase players confidence?

  14. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by JuiceCrewAllStar View Post
    well how can we argue if something does or doesn't exist if you can't even say what it is?

    you can never be wrong if you don't have a definition on the record
    Id say a good start for a definition of hot hand would be any streak of four or more jump shots by one player in a single game (and likely within a specific time period within a single game) in which the shooting percentage is above ~ 70% throughout.

  15. #155
    PM a mod to cement your internet status forever RJKarl's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    HB, CA
    Posts
    64,291
    Thanks for proving my point about you not understanding the game that can't be defined in little boxes or a nerds numbers.

    Tell me what number you can use to determine that a player helps his team by helping in the locker room and diffusing problems?

  16. #156
    Quote Originally Posted by Wakeforest22890 View Post
    What's the difference between a hot hand and clustering?
    Its probably easier to describe the difference between a cold hand and clustering.

    If a 40% shooter shoots often enough, hes going to have several clusters of 1 for 10, purely due to chance.

    Hes also going to have nights where there is a specific, identifiable problem with his shot (mental or physical).

    The line between the two can be blurry, and most people may suck at making the distinction, but the difference is real.

  17. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Id say a good start for a definition of hot hand would be any streak of four or more jump shots by one player in a single game (and likely within a specific time period within a single game) in which the shooting percentage is above ~ 70% throughout.
    Keep in mind, that I don't know the basketball data well enough to argue one way or another whether the "hot hand" exists. But I think you are misunderstanding the hot hand argument, similar to RJ. You are simply describing a streak of made baskets over a small sample size. Those occur for various reasons, like clustering or other variables. It's possible there are other mental or physical reasons why a player would go through a hot or cold spell. The problem with the hot hand argument, or pitcher vs. hitter data, is when you start to value the small sample size of past performance, in predicting the player's next FGA/AB. I think the data proves that in determining what a player will do in his next opportunity, if you are a decision maker (should i pinch hit?, who should take the last shot?), is that you should ALWAYS value the larger sample size over the smaller size because it is simply more predictive.

    RJ uses the fact that hot streaks exist (no one argues they don't) as proof of the hot hand. Whereas others are arguing that you shouldn't let it impact your decision making.

    Quote Originally Posted by RChildress107 View Post
    Its probably easier to describe the difference between a cold hand and clustering.

    If a 40% shooter shoots often enough, hes going to have several clusters of 1 for 10, purely due to chance.

    Hes also going to have nights where there is a specific, identifiable problem with his shot (mental or physical).

    The line between the two can be blurry, and most people may suck at making the distinction, but the difference is real.
    Why is looking at "cold hand" different than looking at "hot hand" here?

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •