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2019 Preakness

RJKarl

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As of today, this looks like the field. I think there may be a couple more added.

mprobable 2-1
War of Will 3-1
Alwaysmining 8-1
Anothertwistafate 9-1
Owendale 10-1
Game Winner 10-1
Bourbon War 10-1
Mr. Money 10-1
Sueno 14-1
Signalman 14-1
Bodexpress 16-1
Roadster 16-1
Laughing Fox 18-1

If Roadster and Game Winner are at those kind of odds, it will be hard to skip them. Don't sleep on Anothertwistafate.
 
It will be brought up that only 5 of the last 19 Preakness winners have paid more than $10 to win and 11 of 19 have paid under $8 to win. This is a deceptive number in that this is the first Preakness since 1996 that the Derby winner didn't run.
 
Here are the updated odds (it will change again when the post positions are drawn):

With all others anticipated at double digit prices, here’s a look at the early morning line for the Preakness Stakes’ prospective field of 11:



Preakness Stakes Contenders
Horse Projected odds
Improbable 3-1
War of Will 7-2
Alwaysmining 5-1
Bourbon War 6-1
Owendale 6-1
Anothertwistafate 10-1
Win Win Win 10-1
Signalman 15-1
Laughing Fox 20-1
Warrior's Charge 20-1
Bodexpress 30-1

It looks like Baffert won't be sending Game Winner or Roadster to Pimlico.
 
There's a better Preakness thread started by this RJKarl guy who knows everything there is about the sport of kings. He also pulls in major ass in Cali.
 
Versus the other thread where the creators and posters pull each other's dicks.
 
Here are the updated odds (it will change again when the post positions are drawn):

With all others anticipated at double digit prices, here’s a look at the early morning line for the Preakness Stakes’ prospective field of 11:



Preakness Stakes Contenders
Horse Projected odds
Improbable 3-1
War of Will 7-2
Alwaysmining 5-1
Bourbon War 6-1
Owendale 6-1
Anothertwistafate 10-1
Win Win Win 10-1

Signalman 15-1
Laughing Fox 20-1
Warrior's Charge 20-1
Bodexpress 30-1

It looks like Baffert won't be sending Game Winner or Roadster to Pimlico.

Surprising to see Anothertwistafate and WWW at longer odds that Bourbon and Owendale (regardless of Lexington Stakes results). I'd have Anothertwistafate and Win Win Win as the next tier behind Improbable, WOW, and Alwaysmining.
 
I was actually looking for Anothertwistafate in the Belmont. He's definitely got a shot.

Bourbon War is puzzling. He didn't run a step in the FL derby.

I might put Warriors Charge in some exotics. The light may have come on for him, but this is light years the best crew he has raced with.
 
The field is now 12 with the addition of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lucas' Market King being entered. If he was trained by anyone other than Lucas, the horse would be 50-1 or more. But the Coach has won the middle jewel of the Triple Crown six times. It might be a good idea to include him in trifectas...and maybe exactas.
 
Churchill Downs suspended Luis Saez for 15 days of riding for his trip in the Derby. That's outrageous on a number of levels. The track conditions and crowd had an impact. More importantly, jockeys rarely get suspended for more than 3-5 days, if at all for such a DQ. No one was hurt. The max he should have gotten is three days. I would have seen losing a $150,000 fee and Derby win as enough punishment.

I hope the appeal brings this back to reality.
 
Churchill Downs suspended Luis Saez for 15 days of riding for his trip in the Derby. That's outrageous on a number of levels. The track conditions and crowd had an impact. More importantly, jockeys rarely get suspended for more than 3-5 days, if at all for such a DQ. No one was hurt. The max he should have gotten is three days. I would have seen losing a $150,000 fee and Derby win as enough punishment.

I hope the appeal brings this back to reality.

Looks like the KY racing commission doubled down on the decision after Saez’s attorney released the video tape. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/maximum-security-kentuck-derby-new-video_n_5cd76df1e4b0705e47dd5948
 
This is a completely unexciting crew. We could get a good race, but it's nothing to get too many casual viewers.

Without knowing the posts or weather, I'm leaning towards the race being set up for one of the favorites (Improbable/War of Will). If the pace too hot, Anothertwisatafate could run them down.

The big question is how good are Alwaysmining and Warrior's Charge are. They have been destroying much worse. Can they continue to improve?
 
Everfast has been entered as the 13th horse in the Preakness. Pimlico needs to set up rules to keep pigs like this out of the race.

Post position draw will happen this afternoon.
 
Here's the post position draw:

Here’s a look at the Preakness field with trainers and jockeys:

1. War of Will, 4-1 (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione): There were anxious moments in the Derby, but by all accounts he has bounced out of the race with plenty of energy and has reason to improve if he can avoid traffic trouble. The pace pressing son of War Front should vie for favoritism. He's twice a graded stakes winner in 2019.

2. Bourbon War, 12-1 (Mark Hennig/Irad Ortiz Jr.): Another that had Derby dreams dashed, he’s a confirmed late runner who will add some small-cupped blinkers in hopes the son of Tapit sits closer to the pace. He had little to run at in the Florida Derby (G1) but delivered a nice rally to be second two back in the Fountain of Youth (G2).

3. Warrior’s Charge, 12-1 (Brad Cox/Javier Castellano): Supplemented by his owners for $150,000, the Florida-bred son of Munnings proved to connections he can win around two turns and registered speed figures at Oaklawn that make him a fit here. A relatively late addition to the prospective field, he contributes plenty of early pace.

4. Improbable, 5-2 (Bob Baffert/Mike Smith): The trainer is seeking his record-breaking eighth Preakness score — all his eventual winners have exited the Derby — and adds Smith for the first time. The jockey insists he can improve this horse, who is winless on the year and may finally get involved earlier at Pimlico under the new pilot.

5. Owendale, 10-1 (Brad Cox/Florent Geroux): The Into Mischief colt bounced back in a big way from missing the board in the Risen Star (G2) to win Keeneland’s Lexington (G3), circling the field through the far turn. Cox says the distance is “a question mark,” but Owendale’s running style makes him a fit to last.

6. Market King, 30-1 (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court): What’s a Preakness without Lukas? His record 44th starter ran 11th last time in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), but the trainer took the blame for turning around quickly after a third in Oaklawn’s Rebel (G2). Market King is now fresh, and Lukas will discover whether his colt is more than a miler.

7. Alwaysmining, 8-1 (Kelly Rubley/Daniel Centeno): On a six-race winning streak at Laurel Park, he has passed every test, extending in distance and last time rating in a dominant Federico Tesio Stakes victory. Next comes a question of class. He’s bidding to be the first Maryland-bred Preakness winner since 1983.

8. Signalman, 30-1 (Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr.): Connections to the Grade 2 winner passed on entering the Derby as an also-eligible — Signalman had a gash over his eye that required some time — and bring a fresh horse into this race. The son of General Quarters was third last time in Keeneland’s Blue Grass (G2).

9. Bodexpress, 20-1 (Gustavo Delgado/John Velazquez): The horse is a maiden, and the Preakness is one major race missing from Velazquez’s resume. Even though Bodexpress finished 13th in the Derby, he more than justified a trip there, getting cut off on the front stretch and shuffled back while making a bid through the far turn.

10. Everfast, 50-1 (Dale Romans/Joel Rosario): Maybe he’s the next Oxbow. That Preakness longshot upset in 2013 for Calumet Farm, which next sends this winner of one race in 10 lifetime starts. Everfast's best race came when rallying for second in the Holy Bull (G2) at 128-1. Since then, he hasn't hit the board in three starts.

11. Laughing Fox, 20-1 (Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr.): The son of Union Rags has won three of five starts this season and last time took the inaugural Oaklawn Invitational on May 4 against a bit of a speed bias. He was also fourth behind some classy colts — Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House — in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

12. Anothertwistafate, 6-1 (Blaine Wright/Jose Ortiz): Connections passed on the Derby with a “Win and You’re In” free trip to the Preakness in hand. The colt, three times a dominant winner on synthetic, has run second in back-to-back Grade 3 starts on dirt. Do you chalk that up to the trip or a preference for another surface?

13. Win Win Win, 15-1 (Michael Trombetta/Julian Pimentel): He exits a ninth-place finish in the Derby with a valid excuse. This one just didn't take to the slop. Trombetta bases his charge in Maryland, where he has already butted heads once with Alwaysmining. The son of Hat Trick may get the setup he needs to close into a nice finish.

Once again, War of Will gets the sucky #1 post position.
 
Looking at Pick 4 and going for high paying exactas. Don't like the race. So, I'll bet less and try to go for the biggest prices. High risk.
 
The more I look at the race. The less I like it. This looks more like a Grade 2 on a Saturday in the fall than a Triple Crown race.
 
I'm not sure what I'll be doing, but for those of you who might be going or wanting to make early bets. Here's a $60 set of bets for you:

$5 WP on #3 Warrior's Charge
$4 WP on #4 Improbable
$1 Exacta Box - 1/3/4/12
$0.50 Tri box - 1/3/4/7/12
 
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