Danny Manning replacement search thread

Rafi said:

I think it has to be Matta. It will complete the circle of life.

Matta Butlerizes us in 2001 —> Odom leaves —> Skip leaves Xavier for Wake —> Matta leaves Butler for Xavier —> CP3 nut punches —> Matta steals Oden/Conley from Wake —> Skip dies —> 10 years of futility —> Matta returns to save us, beating WVU, OSU, Xavier, and Butler on the way to the championship. 30for30 is called “Whole Lotta Matta” and is directed by RJKarl and bankrolled by Welch’s grape juice.

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Will we see commercials for DonaldRoss' hotels?

Kelsey has been at Winthrop 8 years now. His record is 151-90 (.627), with two regular season championships ('16 and '17) and one tournament championship ('17). In his lone NCAAT appearance, Winthrop was a 13 seed and lost to Butler by 12.

Gregg Marshall was at Winthrop for 9 years. His record was 194-83 (.700), with six regular season championships ('99, '02, '03, and his last three seasons, '05, '06, and '07) and seven tournament championships ('99-'02 and '05-'07). He lost his first four tournament appearances by large margins, except for a 16 v. 16 play-in game. In 2005, he lost as a 14 seed to 3 seed Gonzaga by 10. In 2006, he lost as a 15 seed to 2 seed Tennessee by 2. In 2007, he won as an 11 seed against 6 seed Notre Dame before losing to 3 seed Oregon.

The coach at Winthrop between Marshall and Kelsey was Randy Peele, who has not had a track record of success and was fired after five seasons. He won two tournament championships in his five-year tenure.

Deacs9394 said:

When we shift to the mid-major pool, folks on here that dismiss Wake connected folks and think some deep-dive into KenPom is the magic sauce for hiring the next great one, you're kidding yourself. It is an inexact science and there are plenty of examples of the shiny new thing with stellar resumes crashing and burning at the P6 level

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Anything is an inexact science, but someone ran the analysis last year when we thought we were getting a coach and there are definite trends/indicators that can help predict who is more likely to succeed at the next level. To ignore them is kidding yourself. The idea that you can't be absolutely sure doesn't mean that you can't be more sure. It's far more exact than relying on your emotions and going with the guy you remember fondly with Wake connections. Apply the data FIRST and then apply the "look test", your emotions, etc.

OldGoldBeard said:

Kelsey has been at Winthrop 8 years now. His record is 151-90 (.627), with two regular season championships ('16 and '17) and one tournament championship ('17). In his lone NCAAT appearance, Winthrop was a 13 seed and lost to Butler by 12.

Gregg Marshall was at Winthrop for 9 years. His record was 194-83 (.700), with six regular season championships ('99, '02, '03, and his last three seasons, '05, '06, and '07) and seven tournament championships ('99-'02 and '05-'07). He lost his first four tournament appearances by large margins, except for a 16 v. 16 play-in game. In 2005, he lost as a 14 seed to 3 seed Gonzaga by 10. In 2006, he lost as a 15 seed to 2 seed Tennessee by 2. In 2007, he won as an 11 seed against 6 seed Notre Dame before losing to 3 seed Oregon.

The coach at Winthrop between Marshall and Kelsey was Randy Peele, who has not had a track record of success and was fired after five seasons. He won two tournament championships in his five-year tenure.

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I don't think I said Kelsey was better than Marshall. If we could get Marshall that'd be a no-brainer too. I do find it curious that you cherry-picked Randy Peele's record at Winthrop to bolster your anti-Kelsey position. He had 3 losing seasons in 5 including the last two seasons going 25-37 overall, 17-19 conference, and a 5th then 6th place finish. Kelsey took over not Marshall's program but Peele's mess and then went overall 14-17, 20-13, 19-13, 23-9, 26-7 and from 5th place, to 2nd, to 3rd, to 1st and 1st again. The last two years seem to have plateaued a bit (still finishing 2nd and 3rd), but their rolling again this season. We'll see how the season turns out...if they struggle down the stretch, then it'll be a moot point. If they continue to win, he's going to be a candidate for sure.

Still, none of the dick-measuring of resumes matters that much. The fit is what will matter most.

I think resumes are generally a pretty good indication of who's a good coach or not. Ignoring resume and selecting for fit is what got us Bzdoofus.

Deacs9394 said:

Still, none of the dick-measuring of resumes matters that much. The fit is what will matter most.

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Lol, no. The fit is what matters AFTER the resumes have narrowed it down. It didn't mean shit that Clawson "gets" Wake Forest if he wasn't first and foremost a proven program builder. If fit is what matters most, I can name a number of guys on this board who coach rec league, high school or even college who would be great fits, even if their resume doesn't indicate they are ready for the job. Turns out that past results really are a better indicator of future success than how you feel about them...surprising, I know.

If this time around the "floor" is established at Miller/Kelsey we should be in good shape.

My personal preference in this scenario is Miller over Kels as it's easier to win basketball games at Winthrop. And it's also telling that X hired Travis Steele instead of Kelsey.

UNCG is a tougher job and what Miller has done with that program is very impressive. But one question mark with Miller is he only had one finish higher than 5th in the Southern Conference over his first five seasons. Hopefully that was his OJT as a young coach.

OldGoldBeard said:

Kelsey has been at Winthrop 8 years now. His record is 151-90 (.627), with two regular season championships ('16 and '17) and one tournament championship ('17). In his lone NCAAT appearance, Winthrop was a 13 seed and lost to Butler by 12.

Gregg Marshall was at Winthrop for 9 years. His record was 194-83 (.700), with six regular season championships ('99, '02, '03, and his last three seasons, '05, '06, and '07) and seven tournament championships ('99-'02 and '05-'07). He lost his first four tournament appearances by large margins, except for a 16 v. 16 play-in game. In 2005, he lost as a 14 seed to 3 seed Gonzaga by 10. In 2006, he lost as a 15 seed to 2 seed Tennessee by 2. In 2007, he won as an 11 seed against 6 seed Notre Dame before losing to 3 seed Oregon.

The coach at Winthrop between Marshall and Kelsey was Randy Peele, who has not had a track record of success and was fired after five seasons. He won two tournament championships in his five-year tenure.

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Winthrop is kicking ass this year though.

RacerDeac said:

Anything is an inexact science, but someone ran the analysis last year when we thought we were getting a coach and there are definite trends/indicators that can help predict who is more likely to succeed at the next level. To ignore them is kidding yourself. The idea that you can't be absolutely sure doesn't mean that you can't be more sure. It's far more exact than relying on your emotions and going with the guy you remember fondly with Wake connections. Apply the data FIRST and then apply the "look test", your emotions, etc.

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I do remember that analysis last year too...but I think there were some flaws in it, if I remember correctly. Still, I'm not ignoring those trends and data...just saying that random dude with said data doesn't necessarily fit at a unique place like Wake. And the look/eye test matters a lot. In fact, that's how coaches are hired. The data and resume comparing we are doing here creates the shortlist. The final decision is ALWAYS the eye test, your gut, the right "fit", etc.

And what about assistants? The resume comparing here and KenPom deep-dives don't address those guys, right? And therefore those hires are entirely about subjective info...recommendations, gut feeling, eye test, fit, and so on.

RacerDeac said:

Lol, no. The fit is what matters AFTER the resumes have narrowed it down. It didn't mean shit that Clawson "gets" Wake Forest if he wasn't first and foremost a proven program builder. If fit is what matters most, I can name a number of guys on this board who coach rec league, high school or even college who would be great fits, even if their resume doesn't indicate they are ready for the job. Turns out that past results really are a better indicator of future success than how you feel about them...surprising, I know.

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Again, that's not what I am saying. See my last post. I agree, data/resumes narrow it down. But ultimately the hire is about the fit, feel, etc. If it were just about KenPom analysis, then why fucking interview?

Clawson got on the list because of exactly what you said. He has also been successful because he gets Wake Forest. Both are true.

shogun6066 said:

That's actually very fair.
I'm simply not convinced that a guy that so quickly and easily abandoned everything that made him an attractive candidate would be a wise choice.

We've been in the wilderness for ten years already. Do we really want to spend five more hoping a guy that had no interest in us before turns out to work as a fucking retread?

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Yep, good points. Mine was not why we should hire, but a why it could potentially work despite the failure at Texas.

Wakeforest22890 said:

Wake is now 43-123 in ACC play since we hired redacted. Also sitting at a fantastic 8-75 on the road in conference play over that period (3 of those wins came in 2017).

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I've said this before - WF is completing the worst 10-year stretch in modern ACC history

over the last 50 years of ACC basketball, no program has had a 10-year winning percentage as bad as the one that WF is putting the finishing touches on

SDDeac said:

I’m sick of these comments. If you don’t care, then don’t reply to the thread! The thread is about potential coaches to replace Manning. Nobody cares how you used to go to every game and don’t anymore. That’s where we are all at for the most part. We don’t need to hear these pity stories.

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:Checks who started thread:
:Checks who started most of the replacement for Manning threads:

Wow, thanks for telling me.

Colonel Angus said:

If this time around the "floor" is established at Miller/Kelsey we should be in good shape.

My personal preference in this scenario is Miller over Kels as it's easier to win basketball games at Winthrop. And it's also telling that X hired Travis Steele instead of Kelsey.

UNCG is a tougher job and what Miller has done with that program is very impressive. But one question mark with Miller is he only had one finish higher than 5th in the Southern Conference over his first five seasons. Hopefully that was his OJT as a young coach.

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I think Miller is a better coach over Kelsey by a smidge but Kelsey has some P.T. Barnum in him like Skip. I think we need a little P.T. Barnum with such a demoralized fan base so I would give a slight edge to Kelsey over Miller, however, Matta would still be the best coach if we could afford him and he is interested (which I doubt on both fronts).

OldGoldBeard said:

I think resumes are generally a pretty good indication of who's a good coach or not. Ignoring resume and selecting for fit is what got us Bzdoofus.

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It wasn't "Fit" that got us that disaster, it was one guy doing something off the wall because he knew a guy and thought he was smarter than everyone else.

scooter84 said:

It wasn't "Fit" that got us that disaster, it was one guy doing something off the wall because he knew a guy and thought he was smarter than everyone else.

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Ha, yeah. If Bz was the "fit" for us, then we're really screwed.

Colonel Angus said:

If this time around the "floor" is established at Miller/Kelsey we should be in good shape.

My personal preference in this scenario is Miller over Kels as it's easier to win basketball games at Winthrop. And it's also telling that X hired Travis Steele instead of Kelsey.

UNCG is a tougher job and what Miller has done with that program is very impressive. But one question mark with Miller is he only had one finish higher than 5th in the Southern Conference over his first five seasons. Hopefully that was his OJT as a young coach.

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There is no "Miller/Kelsey."

Miller has a legitimately good track record at UNCG and looks like a promising young coach who will be considered for head coaching gigs at larger schools.

Kelsey has a mediocre record whose ambition at this point should be to win enough just to remain employed as a head coach in the Big South.

IAppreciateIt said:

There is no "Miller/Kelsey."

Miller has a legitimately good track record at UNCG and looks like a promising young coach who will be considered for head coaching gigs at larger schools.

Kelsey has a mediocre record whose ambition at this point should be to win enough just to remain employed as a head coach in the Big South.

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This is a bad take.

1. Kelsey's and Miller's actual records are nearly indistinguishable. 2 1st place finishes each and 1 NCAA appearance each. Kelsey has won 63% of his games and Miller 56%.
2. Both had similar KenPom trajectories until Kelsey admittedly plateaued some, but has the trajectory back this year. Winthrop KenPom from 278 to 126 Miller from 280 to 68.
3. Kelsey has beaten a Top 25 team (just this year) and in a nearly decade worth of coaching, Miller never has.
4. Kelsey has been an assistant coach at major programs and has recruited the level of talent necessary to win at Wake. Miller has no such experience.

Anyway, you can prefer Miller to Kelsey...that's fine. But to act like there is somehow a gulf between these two is just absurd.

#3 is important. #4 is more important. Coaching/recruiting in P6 is vastly different than a lower level.

At this point, I'm not sure we have the luxury of on the job training at this point.

Ideally we would all love a proven winner at the P6 level. We might be able to make a run at Matta or Beilein. Maybe we even get lucky and catch a scenario where a good coach is unhappy with his situation and wants to jump ship. That’s how VT got Buzz Williams. That is plan A but likely a long shot.

Plan B is a proven mid-major winner. Ideally this person also has P6 recruiting experience. My personal opinion is that we favor coaching ability over P6 experience if we can’t have both. A guy can always hire a staff of veteran P6 assistants (Mike Young has done this).

Evaluating mid majors is much more than winning percentages and KenPom ratings because all jobs aren’t created equally. College of Charleston is the best job in its league. Same with Murray State and VCU. UC Irvine, Wright State, and UNCG in contrast are well down the pecking order in their respective leagues. You really must evaluate what a coach is accomplishing relative to the potential of the job he has. I think it’s important for Currie to find out what other coaches think about the candidates. They are the ones who know the truth.

From this process you get down to maybe 5-8 candidates that look great on paper. Then you must figure out who fits at Wake. Must embrace our strong academics, no juco transfers, take real classes culture and believe in it. This is where a guy like Forbes might fall short.

If Currie walks through the process in this manner, and listens to the right people, I’m confident we can hire a great coach even if not a household name. I choose to be optimistic that he isn’t a Wellman clone and that he will make an excellent hire. Great options abound.