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Nate Cohn: Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020

Newenglanddeac

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But Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been stable even after seemingly big missteps. And if it improves by a modest amount — not unusual for incumbents with a strong economy — he could have a distinct chance to win re-election while losing the popular vote by more than he did in 2016, when he lost it by 2.1 percentage points.

The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election, which could pad Democratic margins nationwide while doing little to help them in the Northern battleground states.

It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.amp.html


A sobering analysis of 2020 by Nate Cohn. This is basically what cvilledeac has been saying for a while now.
 
Between the Electoral College and the 2nd Amendment, the founders can go fuck themselves
 
Between the Electoral College and the 2nd Amendment, the founders can go fuck themselves

To be fair, they had no idea making sure people could form militias to protect their neighbors would be interpreted to mean everybody could shoot anybody for whatever reason.
 
A good size dosage of fear will help.

The Dems should make this election about racism, his crimes, destroying America's image abroad and being inhumane. No holds barred. Make him go crazy. It's not that hard.
 
To be fair, they had no idea making sure people could form militias to protect their neighbors would be interpreted to mean everybody could shoot anybody for whatever reason.

They also couldn’t envision black and brown folks being considered their equals.
 
I honestly have no idea what will happen. Dems seem so divided and already seem like they're blowing it. They would probably have an easy path to victory if they were just focusing on some of the things which motivate Trump voters. I'd suggest:

1) Working on some common sense immigration reforms instead of just trying to blame Trump for the current border situation (hint: America knows a lot of the policy predates Trump)
2) Stop wasting time and energy on the Russia investigation / impeachment effort and unify the party rallying cry around simply defeating Trump (and other (R)'s in 2020)
3) Come out with some data on why the economy is doing well in spite of Trump, not because of Trump. Talk about why it would be better without him
4) Cull down the list of (D) nominees for president. Get rid of some of the lunatic fringe candidates who will obviously drive votes to trump. We all know even the communist-ish democrats would still vote for a (D) candidate over trump. But moderate Dems and independent voters would potentially vote for Trump if there a total looney tunes socialist dem candidate with radical ideas that scare the common american because they're unfunded / make no sense etc etc.

I think the Dems are too divided and Trump ends up winning again, but we're over a year out so obviously anything could happen. I'm not sure I even knew Trump was in the race at this point leading up to 2016.
 
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Anybody who is thinking “Man, I hate Trump but I’ll vote for him over somebody who wants universal health care” was probably going to vote for him anyway.
 
Was kinda thinking this the other day. I grew up in a real rural area, and maybe the top 10% of us were all in AP classes, and for the most part we all went away to college and then moved to somewhere else. Leaving behind the other most of folks who ended up getting married to each other, and having tons of kids. The affluent folks generally have fewer kids and much later, and so it's just really leaving white rural America getting rapidly dumber, if every time someone happens to get born or raised smart that they move away.
 
Was kinda thinking this the other day. I grew up in a real rural area, and maybe the top 10% of us were all in AP classes, and for the most part we all went away to college and then moved to somewhere else. Leaving behind the other most of folks who ended up getting married to each other, and having tons of kids. The affluent folks generally have fewer kids and much later, and so it's just really leaving white rural America getting rapidly dumber, if every time someone happens to get born or raised smart that they move away.

We've had the Idiocracy discussion before.

Speaking of rubes, are liberals in the city waiting till they're 30-40 to have kids cause they can do math and they can't possibly afford them before that gonna skew the numbers to the rubes who are cranking out 3 kids cause a 4 BR house in alabama costs ya $150k gonna skew the population to more rubes in the future?

Jesus palma. Idiocracy came out 12 years ago.
 
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when did being a conservative become synonymous with being racist? you can be a conservative without so much hatred and contempt, right? or has that ship sailed...maybe it is just conservatives under Trump.
 
I honestly have no idea what will happen. Dems seem so divided and already seem like they're blowing it. They would probably have an easy path to victory if they were just focusing on some of the things which motivate Trump voters. I'd suggest:

1) Working on some common sense immigration reforms instead of just trying to blame Trump for the current border situation (hint: America knows a lot of the policy predates Trump)
2) Stop wasting time and energy on the Russia investigation / impeachment effort and unify the party rallying cry around simply defeating Trump (and other (R)'s in 2020)
3) Come out with some data on why the economy is doing well in spite of Trump, not because of Trump. Talk about why it would be better without him
4) Cull down the list of (D) nominees for president. Get rid of some of the lunatic fringe candidates who will obviously drive votes to trump. We all know even the communist-ish democrats would still vote for a (D) candidate over trump. But moderate Dems and independent voters would potentially vote for Trump if there a total looney tunes socialist dem candidate with radical ideas that scare the common american because they're unfunded / make no sense etc etc.

I think the Dems are too divided and Trump ends up winning again, but we're over a year out so obviously anything could happen. I'm not sure I even knew Trump was in the race at this point leading up to 2016.

Everyone knows rural people don’t care about healthcare.
 
when did being a conservative become synonymous with being racist? you can be a conservative without so much hatred and contempt, right? or has that ship sailed...maybe it is just conservatives under Trump.

I think you can be conservative and not be racist. You simply have to disavow/distance yourself from Trump and all MAGAts. You have to have the courage to speak AGAINST Trump, as opposed to parroting whatever gaslighting shit you read on some obscure Alt-Right site or Fox News.

Nothing wrong with being a conservative. Plenty wrong with being a Trumper/MAGAt.
 
when did being a conservative become synonymous with being racist? you can be a conservative without so much hatred and contempt, right? or has that ship sailed...maybe it is just conservatives under Trump.

You can't not be considered a racist if you support Trump. If you support an overt, unapologetic, unabashed racist who has been one for at least the past 45 years, then you support racism. There's no wiggle room.
 
My favorite hypocritical Conservative belief is that their god will not be judging them for what they do in the ballot box. I guess secret ballot means that God won't be able to see it either. There is absolutely nothing "red-lettered" in the bible that lines up with the voting record and ideology of Donald Trump and today's GOP, yet millions of evangelicals will vote for him anyways.

If they're right about it all, and for some terrible reason (probably because the Donald will keep himself on life support for decades) AOC and Donald Trump happen to show up at the pearly gates at the same time, I can tell you which is getting in first.
 
when did being a conservative become synonymous with being racist? you can be a conservative without so much hatred and contempt, right? or has that ship sailed...maybe it is just conservatives under Trump.

This is one way to read it. Another is that a lot of the tenets of fiscal and social conservatism have been racially coded from the start.
 
This is one way to read it. Another is that a lot of the tenets of fiscal and social conservatism have been racially coded from the start.

If you want to go back to the start, you do realize that the more fiscally conservative and pro business Federalist/Whig/Pub party was considerably less bad to African Americans in our republic's first 150 or so years than the more liberal Dem party.
 
warak, have you seen this?

https://www.thenation.com/article/exclusive-lee-atwaters-infamous-1981-interview-southern-strategy/

“You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.””
 
warak, have you seen this?

https://www.thenation.com/article/exclusive-lee-atwaters-infamous-1981-interview-southern-strategy/

“You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than “Nigger, nigger.””

Thanks for sharing. First time I’ve seen this unfortunately.
 
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