Newenglanddeac
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But Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been stable even after seemingly big missteps. And if it improves by a modest amount — not unusual for incumbents with a strong economy — he could have a distinct chance to win re-election while losing the popular vote by more than he did in 2016, when he lost it by 2.1 percentage points.
The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election, which could pad Democratic margins nationwide while doing little to help them in the Northern battleground states.
It is even possible that Mr. Trump could win while losing the national vote by as much as five percentage points.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...upshot/trump-electoral-college-edge-.amp.html
A sobering analysis of 2020 by Nate Cohn. This is basically what cvilledeac has been saying for a while now.