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Don't Blame the Deacs for Conference's Troubles

JuiceCrewAllStar said:
discussing advance metric ratings before, like, week 8 feels silly
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Depends on how good your preseason metrics are over a longer period of time. Also keep in mind that SP+ specifically includes play by play data so the sample size isn't two or three (and is intended as predictive rather than reflective or anything that uses the transitive property).
 
I listened to the Athletic's CFB podcast this week because the subject was essentially why is the ACC bad? They said it's hard to take the conference seriously outside of Clemson when the other name brands are bad. Sure, the Pac12 doesn't have a Clemson-type team, but does have plenty of ranked teams.

They said they like what Clawson is doing with us and it's a tough job to win here, but who are we kidding, Wake would get destroyed in another conference this year.
 
Unfortunately the common theme among the media is it’s bad for college football when teams like FSU, USC, even Va Tech are not good and when teams like us aren’t an automatic W. I say screw the!
 
BarcaDeac said:
I listened to the Athletic's CFB podcast this week because the subject was essentially why is the ACC bad? They said it's hard to take the conference seriously outside of Clemson when the other name brands are bad. Sure, the Pac12 doesn't have a Clemson-type team, but does have plenty of ranked teams.

They said they like what Clawson is doing with us and it's a tough job to win here, but who are we kidding, Wake would get destroyed in another conference this year.
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Which other conference ? And what other conference doesn't have teams that get destroyed every week ? We'd be a top 4 team in the AAC just like we appear to be in the ACC so far. We'd be in a fight for 7th in the SEC right now or 3rd through 5th in the PAC 12. We'd be middle of the pack in the B1G too.
 
BarcaDeac said:
I listened to the Athletic's CFB podcast this week because the subject was essentially why is the ACC bad? They said it's hard to take the conference seriously outside of Clemson when the other name brands are bad. Sure, the Pac12 doesn't have a Clemson-type team, but does have plenty of ranked teams.

They said they like what Clawson is doing with us and it's a tough job to win here, but who are we kidding, Wake would get destroyed in another conference this year.
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I think it's way too early to say that. Hell, we haven't even had a chance to get destroyed in the ACC yet.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Depends on how good your preseason metrics are over a longer period of time. Also keep in mind that SP+ specifically includes play by play data so the sample size isn't two or three (and is intended as predictive rather than reflective or anything that uses the transitive property).
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the nature of college football versus, say, the NBA make it really hard to have good preseason metrics

too many one-off games and cupcakes in the first few weeks to generate the crossover data that make the stats valuable
 
Pretty sure 2-3 years ago, the same people were saying the ACC Atlantic was the toughest division in football. My how things change.
 
TBF they can change quickly - look at Louisville post-Jackson and then FSU continuing to be outside the top 25. That's 30% of your division
 
tigerswood said:
Pretty sure 2-3 years ago, the same people were saying the ACC Atlantic was the toughest division in football. My how things change.
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In that time, 5 programs lost one of the top QBs in their program history (Dungey, Jackson, Finley, Watson, Wolford). FSU has had a lot of drama at QB and BC has been fine with Brown.

Obviously Clemson restocked and Wake seems to be in good shape. The others are struggling.
 
PhDeac said:
In that time, 5 programs lost one of the top QBs in their program history (Dungey, Jackson, Finley, Watson, Wolford). FSU has had a lot of drama at QB and BC has been fine with Brown.

Obviously Clemson restocked and Wake seems to be in good shape. The others are struggling.
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Finley is one of the best QBs in State history? I mean, I haven't been watching ACC football as long as you, but Rivers, Wilson, and Brissett were all a lot better than Finley.
 
wakelaw13 said:
Finley is one of the best QBs in State history? I mean, I haven't been watching ACC football as long as you, but Rivers, Wilson, and Brissett were all a lot better than Finley.
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State has had a lot more than 4 QBs. Finley was the 6th QB taken in the draft. The new guy looks like a drop off from Finley and Brissett before him.
 
Here's Stewart Mandel's mailbag answer that mimics his take from the podcast I mentioned earlier on the thread:

If you took Clemson out of the ACC, where would you rank it as a conference? I would assume below the American and near the Mountain West, or am I wrong? I cannot remember a conference falling apart so quickly besides one team.

Dan M., Davidson, N.C.

Stewart, If I gave you an over/under of three losses for the ACC team that will play in the Orange Bowl, which way would you go? To put it another way, is anyone in the ACC besides Clemson going to win nine games?

Doug W., Natick, Mass.

It’s been truly astounding to watch the ACC implode to the extent it has. Just three years ago, in 2016, myself and many others declared it the best conference in the country that season. Its teams went 10-4 head-to-head against the SEC and 9-3 in the postseason. Clemson won the national championship, Lamar Jackson won the Heisman, Mitch Trubisky became a No. 2 overall pick, Florida State beat a Top 10 Michigan team in the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech won 10 games in Justin Fuente’s first season. Things seemed to heading in the right direction.

Three years later, it’s down to Clemson and just one other ranked team — No. 21 Virginia. The much-maligned Pac-12, by contrast, currently has six Top 25 teams.

That Orange Bowl question is interesting. Can I say it will be a push? Because although 10 wins without a conference championship victory is going to be tough, absolutely a couple of teams will go 9-3 if for no other reason than they themselves will be playing a soft schedule. Virginia, still my favorite in the Coastal, is a good bet to be one of them, but watch out for Wake Forest. The 3-0 Deacons have a sneaky-good offense led by QB Jamie Newman, and their next four games are against Elon, Boston College, Louisville and Florida State. I could absolutely see them getting to 7-2 or even 8-1 prior to facing Clemson on Nov. 16.

As for the AAC/Mountain West comparison … top-to-bottom, the ACC would still be stronger because even its worst teams are still better than San Jose State, UNLV, New Mexico, UConn, Tulsa and East Carolina. But if you were just focusing on the better halves – well, put it this way. Mountain West teams are 7-9 against Power 5 non-conference opponents, while AAC teams are 4-10. Remove Clemson’s win against Texas A&M and the ACC is … 1-7.

Not great, Bob.
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Maybe this stat changes this year (and maybe not):

Worst Win Pct vs Top 5 Teams Since 2000, Min 10 Games
Wake Forest 0-16 .000
Vanderbilt 0-15 .000
Indiana 0-13 .000
Boston College 1-17 .056
Notre Dame 1-17< .056
< 0-4 under Brian Kelly (3 losses by 14+ pts)
 
DeacAssured said:
If true, then what does Wake Forest Athletics do about it? How does WF achieve better attendance from the students, town and region? Folks internally and externally should arrive at some solutions. For example, should the Deacon Club have an inexpensive membership fee? Otherwise, WF will continue to live in this environment more than Rice, Duke or Northwestern. When WF consistently has sell outs of a very small stadium then externally WF will receive more respect.
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Simply be good consistently. 3 years with 6-7 win regular seasons won't do it. That needs to be the floor for the better part of a decade, a few seasons ranked and a season or two where we really force ourselves into the national conversation (10 win regular season, top 15 ranking... I would say conference championship, but that would require taking out Clemson... and in Clemson's current state, I wouldn't make that a requirement of anyone)
 
but watch out for Wake Forest. The 3-0 Deacons have a sneaky-good offense led by QB Jamie Newman, and their next four games are against Elon, Boston College, Louisville and Florida State. I could absolutely see them getting to 7-2 or even 8-1 prior to facing Clemson on Nov. 16.
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