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Where will Wake be ranked in CFP poll next week?

Where will Wake be ranked in the AP next week?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
Fortunately Pitt (19% per SP) and VPI’s (3.3%) chances of winning out are pretty low. UVA is major threat (48%).

Best case for Wake is:

UNC > Pitt
Pitt > VPI
VPI > UVA

If VT beats Wake and UVA (as we assumed in the case above), their chance of winning out would skyrocket.

The chances of us making the Orange Bowl with losses against VT and Clemson make the argument that beating Clemson would bad thing (because it would knock us out of the Orange Bowl) pointless, ignoring all the other reasons why we would want to win that game anyway.
 
Make the alternate case Biff.

You said yourself two Big Ten AND two SEC teams aren't making it. I agree. Is it really that far-fetched that the Big 12 and Pac-12 will both have a champ with two losses? I wouldn't necessarily say likely, but certainly a "real shot"
 
given biff's not so great track record of predictions this year and 538's model saying we have a 71% chance of making the playoff if we win out, i don't think there's much to doubt about the statement.

one dream scenario might be something like:

1) undefeated LSU
2) undefeated tOSU
3) one-loss oregon
4) one-loss wake
----------------------
5) one-loss bama
6) one-loss oklahoma
7) one-loss clemson

although more likely hoping for teams like OU and Penn St to drop a second game.

obviously our chances of going undefeated are fairly miniscule (the same 538 model puts it at 4%). but a road win over clemson might end up being the best win any team has this year. and also why we have almost no chance of pulling it off.
 
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Would def help us too under this scenario if LSU-Bama and PSU-Ohio State are complete blowouts
 
UVA (or any other Coastal team) will have 4+ losses, and a final throttling by Clemson. Don't think the committee is ranking them over a 9-3 Wake team ending the season with two wins (hopefully blowouts). If that 9-4 team is VT, who beat Wake, it could be a different story.
 
I dunno, maybe Wake's chances are better than I thought. But I don't think 538 knows what's going through the selection committe's heads either.

No 2-loss team is going to jump Wake, so there's that.
Even with our wins over Clemson and the Coastal Champ, I think the following possible 1-loss teams might get in over us:

LSU (Auburn, Florida, Texas) with a loss to Alabama or maybe even Auburn. If they beat Bama then lose the SECCG to UGA, I think they'd still have a very good argument
Georgia - would be SEC champ
Alabama - would have beaten Su and Auburn and lost to Georgia
Oregon/Utah - PAC12 champ, needs to beat the other for resume
Oklahoma - BIGXII Champ, all day long
Baylor - Currently undefeated, but if K-State beats OU, they could wind up beating K-State for a second time in the BIGXIICG while going undefeated (I don't like Baylor's chances though)

There's a lot of agreement right now that a 1-loss Clemson team isn't getting in as ACC Champ or not. Not sure why it would be much different for a 1-loss Wake team.

My most likely scenario with Wake winning out would be:
tOSU or PSU (12-0), SEC Champ, PAC12 Champ, Undefeated or 1-loss BIGXII Champ or LSU if they don't win the SECCG
 
UVA (or any other Coastal team) will have 4+ losses, and a final throttling by Clemson. Don't think the committee is ranking them over a 9-3 Wake team ending the season with two wins (hopefully blowouts). If that 9-4 team is VT, who beat Wake, it could be a different story.

If WF loses its next 2 it falls out of the CFP rankings and falls below whomever wins the Coastal, assuming that team sits at 9-3.

The hope would then be that the committee would choose to rank WF, with a resume that includes a best win over UNC at home, higher than the Coastal champ who can at least match that best win and probably exceed it. That assumes that the committee will truly extend its rankings beyond 25 to force the Orange Bowl to pick a team, which is a nice assumption not based on any written rule that I can find.
 
I dunno, maybe Wake's chances are better than I thought. But I don't think 538 knows what's going through the selection committe's heads either.

No 2-loss team is going to jump Wake, so there's that.
Even with our wins over Clemson and the Coastal Champ, I think the following possible 1-loss teams might get in over us:

LSU (Auburn, Florida, Texas) with a loss to Alabama or maybe even Auburn. If they beat Bama then lose the SECCG to UGA, I think they'd still have a very good argument
Georgia - would be SEC champ
Alabama - would have beaten Su and Auburn and lost to Georgia
Oregon/Utah - PAC12 champ, needs to beat the other for resume
Oklahoma - BIGXII Champ, all day long
Baylor - Currently undefeated, but if K-State beats OU, they could wind up beating K-State for a second time in the BIGXIICG while going undefeated (I don't like Baylor's chances though)

There's a lot of agreement right now that a 1-loss Clemson team isn't getting in as ACC Champ or not. Not sure why it would be much different for a 1-loss Wake team.

My most likely scenario with Wake winning out would be:
tOSU or PSU (12-0), SEC Champ, PAC12 Champ, Undefeated or 1-loss BIGXII Champ or LSU if they don't win the SECCG

It's obviously all academic at this point, but I don't think the committee puts a 1 loss non-conference winning SEC team in the playoff over 12-1 ACC champ Wake with a road win over Clemson. They want to get in? Win their conference.
 
If WF loses its next 2 it falls out of the CFP rankings and falls below whomever wins the Coastal, assuming that team sits at 9-3.

The hope would then be that the committee would choose to rank WF, with a resume that includes a best win over UNC at home, higher than the Coastal champ who can at least match that best win and probably exceed it. That assumes that the committee will truly extend its rankings beyond 25 to force the Orange Bowl to pick a team, which is a nice assumption not based on any written rule that I can find.

There were six 4 loss P5 teams in the final pre-bowl rankings last year. One 5 loss team. I think Wake would be ranked at 9-3 to end the year, despite the lack of quality wins. Winning 9 games in a P5 conference, even the ACC, isn't easy.
 
given biff's not so great track record of predictions this year and 538's model saying we have a 71% chance of making the playoff if we win out, i don't think there's much to doubt about the statement.

one dream scenario might be something like:

1) undefeated LSU
2) undefeated tOSU
3) one-loss oregon
4) one-loss wake
----------------------
5) one-loss bama
6) one-loss oklahoma
7) one-loss clemson

although more likely hoping for teams like OU and Penn St to drop a second game.

obviously our chances of going undefeated are fairly miniscule (the same 538 model puts it at 4%). but a road win over clemson might end up being the best win any team has this year. and also why we have almost no chance of pulling it off.

The idea that a 1 loss Wake team goes to the playoffs over a 1 loss Bama team is insane, right? Am I taking crazy pills here?
 
The idea that a 1 loss Wake team goes to the playoffs over a 1 loss Bama team is insane, right? Am I taking crazy pills here?

Not really. Beating Clemson in Death Valley would be a better win than beating Auburn. Wake could add a ranked win in the ACCCG as well.

Clemson should be #3 or #4 when we play them. I don’t think a Top 4 team has lost all year. The first loss will come on Saturday but if we beat Clemson, we would be the first team outside the top 4 to beat a top 4 team. That should look good in the rankings.

If we finish strong with big wins over VT, Duke, and Cuse, we should draw comparisons to Clemson teams that made the CFP with one loss to ACC teams comparable to this year’s Louisville.
 
There were six 4 loss P5 teams in the final pre-bowl rankings last year. One 5 loss team. I think Wake would be ranked at 9-3 to end the year, despite the lack of quality wins. Winning 9 games in a P5 conference, even the ACC, isn't easy.

Yeah Wake would almost certainly be ranked by the CFP with a 9-3 record. Going back to the CFP beginning (2014) here are the P5 teams I found that ended the year 9-3 or better and weren't in the final CFP rankings that determine the playoffs/bowl(s):

2018 - N.C. State (9-3; were 14th when they lost to Wake, won their last three games but never got ranked again - this one seems odd)
2017 - None
2016 - Nebraska (9-3, lost last game of the regular season to Iowa 40-10 and three of their last five)
2015 - Wisconsin (9-3, lost second to last game of the year to NW 13-7 at home then beat Minnesota 31-21 on the road to end the year); Georgia (9-3, won their last four regular season games of the regular season)
2014 - Duke (9-3, lost two of their last three regular season games, beat Wake 41-21 in the season finale); Nebraska (9-3, lost two of their last three regular season games, beat Iowa in OT on the road in the season finale)

So in the five year CFP era, six teams have gone 9-3 or better (all went exactly 9-3) and were not ranked. There doesn't seem to be any real rhyme or reason as to why teams don't end up ranked at 9-3 looking at when their wins and losses occurred. Maybe it's worth digging into their SOS overall. Two teams won their last three games and still weren't ranked (2018 State and 2015 Georgia), two lost two of their last three games (2014 Duke and 2014 Nebraska), one lost three of their last five (2016 Nebraska) and the last (2015 Wisconsin) won six of their last seven but had a loss in the second to last week of the season.

But only once has a 9-3 P5 team not been in the final CFP rankings over the last two years.
 
Yeah Wake would almost certainly be ranked by the CFP with a 9-3 record. Going back to the CFP beginning (2014) here are the P5 teams I found that ended the year 9-3 or better and weren't in the final CFP rankings that determine the playoffs/bowl(s):

2018 - N.C. State (9-3; were 14th when they lost to Wake, won their last three games but never got ranked again - this one seems odd)
2017 - None
2016 - Nebraska (9-3, lost last game of the regular season to Iowa 40-10 and three of their last five)
2015 - Wisconsin (9-3, lost second to last game of the year to NW 13-7 at home then beat Minnesota 31-21 on the road to end the year); Georgia (9-3, won their last four regular season games of the regular season)
2014 - Duke (9-3, lost two of their last three regular season games, beat Wake 41-21 in the season finale); Nebraska (9-3, lost two of their last three regular season games, beat Iowa in OT on the road in the season finale)

So in the five year CFP era, six teams have gone 9-3 or better (all went exactly 9-3) and were not ranked. There doesn't seem to be any real rhyme or reason as to why teams don't end up ranked at 9-3 looking at when their wins and losses occurred. Maybe it's worth digging into their SOS overall. Two teams won their last three games and still weren't ranked (2018 State and 2015 Georgia), two lost two of their last three games (2014 Duke and 2014 Nebraska), one lost three of their last five (2016 Nebraska) and the last (2015 Wisconsin) won six of their last seven but had a loss in the second to last week of the season.

But only once has a 9-3 P5 team not been in the final CFP rankings over the last two years.

so, 100% of the times that a Big 4 school has been 9-3, they've been unranked in the CFP rankings

obviously I hope we go the Orange Bowl even if we lose at VT - I just don't think it's likely; I believe a 9-4 VA, VT, or Pitt would all have stronger resumes than a 9-3 WF who lost to VT
 
Not really. Beating Clemson in Death Valley would be a better win than beating Auburn. Wake could add a ranked win in the ACCCG as well.

Clemson should be #3 or #4 when we play them. I don’t think a Top 4 team has lost all year. The first loss will come on Saturday but if we beat Clemson, we would be the first team outside the top 4 to beat a top 4 team. That should look good in the rankings.

If we finish strong with big wins over VT, Duke, and Cuse, we should draw comparisons to Clemson teams that made the CFP with one loss to ACC teams comparable to this year’s Louisville.

Georgia was ranked #3 when they lost to South Carolina.

I totally get that you think beating undefeated Clemson on the road would be better than beating Auburn at Jordan-Hare, but if Clemson doesn't beat Wake, who will they have beaten all year ? A&M ? Well, Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, and LSU will have beaten them too. Obviously, South Carolina, but that's not really very many.
 
So we have to beat Va Tech for a "special season ?"
 
An additional look at the Coastal champ's drop in the CFP after losing the ACCCG in the CFP era:

2018: Pittsburgh (NR entering ACCCG, lost 42-3 to Clemson, NR in final rankings)
2017: Miami (7th entering ACCCG, lost 38-3 to Clemson, 10th in final rankings)
2016: VPI (23rd entering ACCCG, lost 42-35 to Clemson, 22nd in final rankings)
2015: UNC (10th entering ACCCG, lost 45-37 to Clemson, 10th in final rankings)
2014: GT (11th entering ACCCG, lost 37-35 to FSU, 12th in final rankings)

VPI is the only team over these five years to lose the ACCCG and fall to 9-4. I think that's about where the ACC Coastal loser will finish if they drop to 9-4 with a relatively close game to Clemson (around 22nd or 23rd).
 
All speculation aside, the conversations are fun as hell for a Wake fan to have in November, ain't they?
 
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