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2019-20 MLB Hot Stove Thread...

What fresh hell is this?

Sources: MLB weighing major changes to postseason, including growing number of teams to 14

MLB is considering a move in which each league would have three division winners and four wild-card teams making the postseason starting in 2022, sources said. The best team in the league would receive a bye into the division series. The two remaining division winners and the wild-card team with the best record of the four would each host all games of a best-of-three series in the opening round.

The potential changes were first reported by the New York Post.

Once the teams clinch and the regular season ends, the plan gets congested:

The division winner with the second-best record would select its wild-card opponent from the three wild-card winners not hosting a series.

The division winner with the worst record would then choose its opponent from the remaining two wild-card teams.

The final matchup would pit the wild-card winner with the best record against the wild-card team not yet chosen.

All of the selections, sources said, would be unveiled live on television the Sunday night of the final regular-season games.
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I'm fine with expanding to seven and adding a bye, but the "choose your opponent" thing is just ludicrous.

PECOTA projections as pitchers and catchers report: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

So that's:
NL: Nationals/Cubs WC, winner to play LAD, with Mets/Reds as the other series
AL: Rays/Angels WC, winner to play NYY with Astros/Twins as the other series

OK then.
 
CantStandYa said:
I'm fine with expanding to seven and adding a bye, but the "choose your opponent" thing is just ludicrous.

PECOTA projections as pitchers and catchers report: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

So that's:
NL: Nationals/Cubs WC, winner to play LAD, with Mets/Reds as the other series
AL: Rays/Angels WC, winner to play NYY with Astros/Twins as the other series

OK then.
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Here are the teams with the biggest differentials between PECOTA projected records and the posted season win totals (season win over/unders):

DET +13.5 (PECOTA - 69; O/U 55.5)
MIA +7.5 (PECOTA - 71: O/U 63.5)
BAL +6.5 (PECOTA - 63: O/U 56.5)
HOU +4.5 (PECOTA - 98; O/U 93.5)

PHI -8.5 (PECOTA - 77; O/U 85.5)
ATL -8.5 (PECOTA - 83; O/U 90.5)
STL -7.5 (PECOTA - 80; O/U 88.5)
TEX -6.5 (PECOTA - 73; O/U 79.5)

There are a couple of reasons why PECOTA projects higher win totals for the bottom feeder teams: a) no one feels good about laying a year long bet on the Orioles or Marlins: b) those teams are likely sellers at the trade deadline, and PECOTA is based on the anticipated production of those on the roster and can't anticipate trades.

FWIW, my team total play of the season is under Giants 70.5. Hard to believe, but at 77-85, the Giants had the best record in baseball in one run games last year with a ridiculous a 38-16 record in one-run games (10 more one-run wins than any other team in baseball), and also an insane 13-3 record in extra inning games. That kind of lop-sided success in close games typically normalizes, plus the Giants lose Bochy (add Gabe Kapler - talk about a down-grade on the bench); lose their closer Will Smith, and lose their #1 starter Mad Bum. FWIW, PECOTA projects the Giants to win 68 games this season.
 
Could be an interesting spring training, with the Astros and Nationals sharing training facilities in Florida.

"You cheated but we beat you anyway."
 
In case anyone is curious, the single season record for beanings is 51 set back in 1896.
 
CantStandYa said:
In case anyone is curious, the single season record for beanings is 51 set back in 1896.
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Might be something to keep an eye on. Who would you predict as targets?

A) Current Astros who were on the team in 17, 18 and 19?
B) Players from those teams who went elsewhere?
C) Anybody on the 2020 Astros?
D) A + B?
E) All of the above?
 
CantStandYa said:
In case anyone is curious, the single season record for beanings is 51 set back in 1896.
Click to expand...

I think I'm most curious how the MLB will handle it when each team inevitably does it. Are there going to be auto-ejections like there are sometimes when the MLB foresees a brawl between teams that don't like each other? Is the first HBP going to be allowed with just a warning each time? Will there be a league-wide memo that any more Astros intentional HBPs are going to result in immediate ejections? Personally, I think it's a bad look for the MLB to be too proactive about protecting the Astros, but at the same time player safety issues are going to legitimately come up once Trevor Bauer throws at Bregman and Altuve's heads.
 
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Deaconblue said:
Might be something to keep an eye on. Who would you predict as targets?

A) Current Astros who were on the team in 17, 18 and 19?
B) Players from those teams who went elsewhere?
C) Anybody on the 2020 Astros?
D) A + B?
E) All of the above?
Click to expand...

I think far and away the primary targets are going to be Altuve and Bregman, with Correa and Gurriel as secondary targets, and Verlander if he ever pitches against the right NL team. So I guess option A. I can't imagine Marwin Gonzales getting repeatedly hit for this, nor can I Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez.
 
deacon14 said:
I think far and away the primary targets are going to be Altuve and Bregman, with Correa and Gurriel as secondary targets, and Verlander if he ever pitches against the right NL team. So I guess option A. I can't imagine Marwin Gonzales getting repeatedly hit for this, nor can I Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez.
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This. If anyone gets targeted, it's Altuve because of the MVP and the "don't rip my shirt off" theories, or Bregman... because he's a dick and everyone already hates him. There's a reason the Astros put those two front and center for their pseudo-apology charade.

Also, I was trying to think of an instance where there was a member of the '17 Dodgers or Yankees who is now on the same team as someone from the '17 Astros, and The Athletic went and did it for me: https://theathletic.com/1604767/202...y-elbow-rehab-marwin-gonzalez-astros-scandal/. Marwin Gonzalez + Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda on the Twins. The summary of the article is: Gonzalez says he wants to sit down with them, Rich Hill says that's fine but is more interested in winning a World Series, yada yada yada.
 
I'm recalling the classic scene in Bull Durham where Crash tips off the batter to what Nuke will be throwing. Why bother with relying on the catcher getting ticked at his pitcher when you can just steal the signs?
 
Rob Manfred is a bumbling idiot that is bad for baseball. He just keeps digging a deeper hole through ANY of his comments. He can’t get out of baseball quick enough.
 
YoungBuck95 said:
Rob Manfred is a bumbling idiot that is bad for baseball. He just keeps digging a deeper hole through ANY of his comments. He can’t get out of baseball quick enough.
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The justifications he used were terrible - the Championship is just a piece of metal, their shame is punishment enough, they told me what happened in 2017, so why would they lie about 2018 and 2019. I'm guessing he is just too scared to do something that has never been done, like take the championship away - but all the other teams are chiming in, Bellinger ripped them, Bauer is on a non-stop outrage, Kris Bryant ripped them. Correa should probably stop talking to the press too - his story about a tattoo or whatever is ridiculous.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens - one of the biggest difference between the Astros being great and them being mediocre has been their massive drop in strikeouts from 2016 to 2017-2019. The punishment is nowhere near harsh enough, pretty sure everyone thinks that - and it stinks too because its not like the Stros are a bunch of bums, they are great players, but it's now a lot more wondering about how great.
 
CantStandYa said:
In case anyone is curious, the single season record for beanings is 51 set back in 1896.
Click to expand...

My great great uncle held the AL record for beanings in a season until Bob Baylor took it from him in the mid-1980s. He remains something like 13th on the career list.

For a team the record in a season is 108. I think the Astros will beat that by at least 15-20 this year.
 
YoungBuck95 said:
Rob Manfred is a bumbling idiot that is bad for baseball. He just keeps digging a deeper hole through ANY of his comments. He can’t get out of baseball quick enough.
Click to expand...

To call the championship a "piece of metal" is completely insane. It is preposterously out of touch with why fans and players are involved in any sport.
 
DaDeacs said:
The justifications he used were terrible - the Championship is just a piece of metal, their shame is punishment enough, they told me what happened in 2017, so why would they lie about 2018 and 2019. I'm guessing he is just too scared to do something that has never been done, like take the championship away - but all the other teams are chiming in, Bellinger ripped them, Bauer is on a non-stop outrage, Kris Bryant ripped them. Correa should probably stop talking to the press too - his story about a tattoo or whatever is ridiculous.
Click to expand...

I can’t blame the players speaking out at all. I’d be furious, especially if I was one of the pitchers that got rocked and then demoted or cut. Also, iirc, manfred said that they looked at precedent and tradition and saw that no championships have ever been taken away in the league. Who cares what has happened? Take that chunk of metal that so many players spend their lives trying to get away.
 
One of my favorite players died yesterday -Tony Fernandez. He was only 57 but was waiting for a kidney transplant.

I loved watching him play. He could really pick at SS.

RIP
 
YoungBuck95 said:
I can’t blame the players speaking out at all. I’d be furious, especially if I was one of the pitchers that got rocked and then demoted or cut. Also, iirc, manfred said that they looked at precedent and tradition and saw that no championships have ever been taken away in the league. Who cares what has happened? Take that chunk of metal that so many players spend their lives trying to get away.
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Manfred loves to cite precedent. Doesn't have an original thought.
 
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