Pilchard
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Deacs are in trouble. WF scheduled this game against a team that was horrendous last year (#347 -- 4-27; State beat them by 51), thinking it would be easy. UNC Asheville is much improved and having played a competitive game against Tennessee in Knoxville and having dominated Citadel in Charleston.
2019-20 Season: Last Tuesday (November 5), the Bulldogs opened the season with a 78-63 road loss to Tennessee. UNCA was within 6 at the half. TN pulled away in the 2nd half using their size edge to out rebound UNCA by 20 and to open up a tight game. Soph F LJ Thorpe scored 22 and NC State transfer Lavar Batts had 11 against the Vols. On Saturday (November 9), UNCA went to Charleston and dominated Citadel from the opening tip winning 91-76 (UNCA led 57-36 at the half). The Bulldogs had 7 players in double figures against Citadel. UNCA opened the season #292 in KP's ratings and have jumped to #262 after these first two games. UNCA's power rating continues to be dragged down by last year's abysmal season when the Bulldogs went 4-27 (#347), when they started 4 freshman under new coach Mike Morell. This year, almost everyone returns, and they add three transfers (Batts - NC State, Jeremy Peck - Drexel, Jax Levitch - Fort Wayne). This is a much improved "play-on" UNCA team (already 2-0 ATS).
Lineup, strengths and weaknesses: UNCA is small. They start 6-3 Batts at PG, 6-2 DeVon Baker (25 against Citadel) and 6-5 Taijon Jones (23 against Citadel) on the wings, 6-5 LJ Thorpe (Big South POW) and 6-9 Coty Jude upfront. Off the bench, UNCA primarily relies on freshman G 6-2 Trent Stephany and F-C 6-7 Jex Levitch. All seven can hit from deep. UNCA took 23 threes against Citadel and made 48%. Their defense has been lacking, allowing opponents to shoot 47% from 3 and 54% from 2. Last year, UNCA was among the slowest tempo teams in the country averaging 62 possessions a game (#350). With a deeper and more experienced lineup, UNCA has ramped up the tempo with 72 possessions in the TN game and 75 against Citadel (Citadel is among the fastest tempo teams in the country).
Bottom line: KP projects a 78-64 WF win. Don't think so. Will be surprised if the line is 11 or more and it could be less than 10 by tip off; UNCA is a better team than expected and WF is somehow worse (0-2 ATS); the sharp action will be on the Bulldogs. WF's offense has been inept over its first two against two teams not known for defense. The Deacs are shooting 29% from 3 and 41% from 2. WF's one strength to date has been on the boards (+9 rebounding margin). WF will need to dominate the boards against the size-challenged Bulldogs. This is UNCA's 3rd straight road game, which generally is a bad spot, but UNCA is not far from Winston-Salem, and WF has no home court edge. At this point, hard to see WF dominating anyone. Maybe this will be the game where everyone pads their stats (Chaundee, Andrien, Brandon and Sharone are combined 4-17 from 3 to date), but given the current form, the game will be tight and will come down to the final few possessions.
FWIW, WF better win this one because other Charlotte this weekend and NC A&T on December 21; this is WF's weakest remaining opponent by far.
2019-20 Season: Last Tuesday (November 5), the Bulldogs opened the season with a 78-63 road loss to Tennessee. UNCA was within 6 at the half. TN pulled away in the 2nd half using their size edge to out rebound UNCA by 20 and to open up a tight game. Soph F LJ Thorpe scored 22 and NC State transfer Lavar Batts had 11 against the Vols. On Saturday (November 9), UNCA went to Charleston and dominated Citadel from the opening tip winning 91-76 (UNCA led 57-36 at the half). The Bulldogs had 7 players in double figures against Citadel. UNCA opened the season #292 in KP's ratings and have jumped to #262 after these first two games. UNCA's power rating continues to be dragged down by last year's abysmal season when the Bulldogs went 4-27 (#347), when they started 4 freshman under new coach Mike Morell. This year, almost everyone returns, and they add three transfers (Batts - NC State, Jeremy Peck - Drexel, Jax Levitch - Fort Wayne). This is a much improved "play-on" UNCA team (already 2-0 ATS).
Lineup, strengths and weaknesses: UNCA is small. They start 6-3 Batts at PG, 6-2 DeVon Baker (25 against Citadel) and 6-5 Taijon Jones (23 against Citadel) on the wings, 6-5 LJ Thorpe (Big South POW) and 6-9 Coty Jude upfront. Off the bench, UNCA primarily relies on freshman G 6-2 Trent Stephany and F-C 6-7 Jex Levitch. All seven can hit from deep. UNCA took 23 threes against Citadel and made 48%. Their defense has been lacking, allowing opponents to shoot 47% from 3 and 54% from 2. Last year, UNCA was among the slowest tempo teams in the country averaging 62 possessions a game (#350). With a deeper and more experienced lineup, UNCA has ramped up the tempo with 72 possessions in the TN game and 75 against Citadel (Citadel is among the fastest tempo teams in the country).
Bottom line: KP projects a 78-64 WF win. Don't think so. Will be surprised if the line is 11 or more and it could be less than 10 by tip off; UNCA is a better team than expected and WF is somehow worse (0-2 ATS); the sharp action will be on the Bulldogs. WF's offense has been inept over its first two against two teams not known for defense. The Deacs are shooting 29% from 3 and 41% from 2. WF's one strength to date has been on the boards (+9 rebounding margin). WF will need to dominate the boards against the size-challenged Bulldogs. This is UNCA's 3rd straight road game, which generally is a bad spot, but UNCA is not far from Winston-Salem, and WF has no home court edge. At this point, hard to see WF dominating anyone. Maybe this will be the game where everyone pads their stats (Chaundee, Andrien, Brandon and Sharone are combined 4-17 from 3 to date), but given the current form, the game will be tight and will come down to the final few possessions.
FWIW, WF better win this one because other Charlotte this weekend and NC A&T on December 21; this is WF's weakest remaining opponent by far.
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