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Basham, Surratt, Hartman and Kern return

The more interesting question is Jamie Newman and NFL QB. I think he'll end up having a 10-year career mostly as a backup, but a good backup, who makes 15+ starts in the NFL in meaningful games.

Drafting a QB is such a crapshoot. The number of 1st round NFL QBs drafted who have been busts can't be counted on two hands. There is obviously Tom Brady, but I love the fact that that Russell Wilson was so obviously an NFL QB and still, not only was he a 2nd rd pick, but Seattle signed some stiff named Foley who played one great game for the Packers AFTER they drafted Wilson, to be their starter and were able to essentially cut him before preseason was over. That is how much of a crapshoot the NFL draft is.
 
It’s less of a crapshoot than it used to be. 1st round QBs have a pretty good track record over the last few years. A second year QB won the last MVP and a second year QB will probably be this year’s MVP.

11 QBs taken between 2016, 2017, and 2018. Two busts, 9 likely long time starters and among them two MVPs.
 
PhDeac said:
It’s less of a crapshoot than it used to be. 1st round QBs have a pretty good track record over the last few years. A second year QB won the last MVP and a second year QB will probably be this year’s MVP.

11 QBs taken between 2016, 2017, and 2018. Two busts, 9 likely long time starters and among them two MVPs.
Click to expand...

I mean a sample size of 3 years feels way too small to say that. Solid quarterbacks in first round:

2011: 1/4
2012: 2/4 (1/4 if you dislike Ryan Tannehill)
2013: 0/1
2014: 1/3
2015: Winston and Mariota. Idk what to classify either but certainly not 2/2

And then there’s no way 2019 is 3/3 with Murray, Jones and Haskins. At this point I’d say 1.5/3

I think those were just 3 years with strong 1st round QB talent, along with the fact that Mayfield, Darnold, and Allen could all foreseeably bust and bring down your numbers.
 
jaybone said:
The more interesting question is Jamie Newman and NFL QB. I think he'll end up having a 10-year career mostly as a backup, but a good backup, who makes 15+ starts in the NFL in meaningful games.

Drafting a QB is such a crapshoot. The number of 1st round NFL QBs drafted who have been busts can't be counted on two hands. There is obviously Tom Brady, but I love the fact that that Russell Wilson was so obviously an NFL QB and still, not only was he a 2nd rd pick, but Seattle signed some stiff named Foley who played one great game for the Packers AFTER they drafted Wilson, to be their starter and were able to essentially cut him before preseason was over. That is how much of a crapshoot the NFL draft is.
Click to expand...

1. Third-rounder, not second
2. Flynn, not Foley
3. Flynn had his six-TD game (1/1/12) and signed with the Seahawks (3/18/12) before they selected Wilson (4/27/12), not AFTER
 
PhDeac said:
You don’t seem to know what a ceiling is either. Neither does Juice. I guess I shouldn’t assume.

Why would I do a 1 to 1 bet that a player would reach his ceiling? Give me better odds and I’ll take it. I’ll do 10 to 1 odds. I give you $10 and you give me $100. Deal?

Thank you, Rafi. People act like a first round pick is some sort of god.
Click to expand...

Is there a ceiling above a first round pick ? If you need 10-1 odds you need to stop talking about him as a first round pick.
 
Wow! That’s a huge recruiting win.
 
 
Yeah I thought of the guys that could leave, Boogie was almost a given. He and Johns at the ends will be very nice next season.
 
Fuck. Yes. Let’s eat!!
 
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