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KP Report NC State Wolfpack - TONIGHT YES FRIDAY - 7 PM - ACCN

what about a Thread?

Predict the date of the "Canning of Manning"

I/m in for 12-25
 
The players are in an unfortunate death spiral now. They are used to losing and have very little confidence— I felt the game was over when State went ahead 14-4. As a consequence we don’t play hard for long stretches of the game—State seemed to get all the 50/50 balls , particularly in the second half.

Yeah, the score was closer than what actually transpired. State pretty much had control the entire game.
 
Wake was coming home off an embarrassing loss at Penn St. It was the ACC home opener versus a rival opponent that has lost 3 of their last 4 at the Joel and Wake NEVER had a lead in 40 minutes of basketball. That now makes it 80 minutes of basketball without ever leading by at least a point (it actually is more if you count the minutes once Zona took over the game). The number of games that Coach Manning was not even able to secure a lead (1-0 would suffice) is astonishing. He is so bad. Wellman was replacing the worst coach in ACC history and found a way to hire someone that is actually worse.
 
WF @ NCSU (3/6/2020)

Bump unless the Pilch starts the real thread & analysis

Vegas likes NCSU by 7.5 (o/u 151.5)
ESPN BPI has NCSU with an 80% chance of winning
Sagarin indicates NCSU as a 6 pt favorite (85-79)
Torvik likes NCSU by 7 (79-72)
Team Rankings & Number Fire both like NCSU by 8 (79-71)

So looking at all those metrics, there seems to be a pretty good consensus from the different models for how they expect the game to go.
 
The Nut Punch was 15 years ago tonight. If one wanted to pick a date for when the WF basketball program began to fall apart, March 6th, 2005 would be as good as any. That day led to Chris Paul's suspension in the first round of the ACCT, which led to losing a #1 seed in the NCAAT, which led to the West Virginia loss. Without the Nut Punch and the ACCT 1st round loss we would have almost certainly been a #1 seed in the NCAAT and WV would never have happened. A 2nd WF appearance in the Final Four would have been very possible and from there everything may have unfolded very differently than what has happened in the last 15 years.
 
Sorry, work got the best of me yesterday (hard to believe that anything could be more important than WF vying for an 11th seed in the ACCT).

Will update later: KP projects a 79-72 Pack win. WF has a 28% chance at a win. The Deacs can pretty much end State's hopes for an NCAA bid tonight. Deacs are 4-0 this season in revenge spots. State won the first match up way back in December 91-82. Chill had 30. Think this game goes over just like last time. WF offense is clicking; the defense... not so much.
 
Sorry, work got the best of me yesterday (hard to believe that anything could be more important than WF vying for an 11th seed in the ACCT).

Will update later: KP projects a 79-72 Pack win. WF has a 28% chance at a win. The Deacs can pretty much end State's hopes for an NCAA bid tonight. Deacs are 4-0 this season in revenge spots. State won the first match up way back in December 91-82. Chill had 30. Think this game goes over just like last time. WF offense is clicking; the defense... not so much.

We have 28% chance to win...which doubles against state.
 
Sorry, work got the best of me yesterday (hard to believe that anything could be more important than WF vying for an 11th seed in the ACCT).

Will update later: KP projects a 79-72 Pack win. WF has a 28% chance at a win. The Deacs can pretty much end State's hopes for an NCAA bid tonight. Deacs are 4-0 this season in revenge spots. State won the first match up way back in December 91-82. Chill had 30. Think this game goes over just like last time. WF offense is clicking; the defense... not so much.

But but but, Danny said we were going to hang our hats on defense!!! Facepalm
 
The Nut Punch was 15 years ago tonight. If one wanted to pick a date for when the WF basketball program began to fall apart, March 6th, 2005 would be as good as any. That day led to Chris Paul's suspension in the first round of the ACCT, which led to losing a #1 seed in the NCAAT, which led to the West Virginia loss. Without the Nut Punch and the ACCT 1st round loss we would have almost certainly been a #1 seed in the NCAAT and WV would never have happened. A 2nd WF appearance in the Final Four would have been very possible and from there everything may have unfolded very differently than what has happened in the last 15 years.
Somehow winning tonight and hiring Beilien would be as close to full circle as we could possibly get.
 
Sorry, work got the best of me yesterday (hard to believe that anything could be more important than WF vying for an 11th seed in the ACCT).

Will update later: KP projects a 79-72 Pack win. WF has a 28% chance at a win. The Deacs can pretty much end State's hopes for an NCAA bid tonight. Deacs are 4-0 this season in revenge spots. State won the first match up way back in December 91-82. Chill had 30. Think this game goes over just like last time. WF offense is clicking; the defense... not so much.

10th seed and Tuesday bye not out of the question. VaTech has to beat Notre Dame for that to happen.
 
I think it's great that the ACC decided to let us end the season on a Friday night, since they knew we'd start the ACCT on Tuesday. How thoughtful for the extra day of rest.
 
O/U is high, but over feels like the play (again)... I'm not on it yet, though.

Somebody talk me out of NCSU -7.5... Feels like the team has every reason to just roll over tonight, even though we haven't seen that happen this year. Even if we play relatively well, there's no reason we couldn't lose by 10+ points in a high scoring affair.

Maybe I'm just forcing things... Need to think about it more.
 
O/U is high, but over feels like the play (again)... I'm not on it yet, though.

Somebody talk me out of NCSU -7.5... Feels like the team has every reason to just roll over tonight, even though we haven't seen that happen this year. Even if we play relatively well, there's no reason we couldn't lose by 10+ points in a high scoring affair.

Maybe I'm just forcing things... Need to think about it more.

Depends on how early we start fouling, down six.
 
I would take State all night long at -7.5 . PNC will be packed on senior nite and State has something to play for. Childress will likely shine versus poor defense like the last meeting, but the atmosphere will be too much for our younger players. State is not generally a good 3 pointer team, but will look good against our poor perimeter defense. If State was not on the bubble, I think they might lay down , but not tonite.
 
Here are some other nuggets on the Pack:



- Since beating WF on Pearl Harbor Day, the Pack have gone 11-10 (8-9). Pretty mediocre for a team with the potential to be a top- tier ACC team this season.
- The Pack's best two wins of the season: the beat down of Duke by 22 and a two point win at UVA. Despite those wins State has several inexplicable losses (at BC, swept by UNC and GT, at VT by 14, at Clemson by 11).
- State has dropped 3 of its last 4, and it's lone win was ugly win by 4 at home over a Pitt team in the middle of a 7 game losing streak.
- One thing that bodes well for WF is that State fouls... a lot. They lead the ACC by a wide margin in opponents free throw rate, and getting to the line is WF's game.
- State's defense likes to gamble to try force TOs (#4 in defensive TO %) and WF is prone to TOs.
- State has been struggling to hit from behind the arc recently (10 for its last 43... 22%).

Probably not taking a side, but if I did, would take WF. If State plays like they did against Duke on February 19, then they win big, but that hasn't been the Pack m.o. for most of the year. Think WF can hang in, as State is a sloppy defensive team, and WF's offense has scored 83+ in each of the last 3. Except for the loss at Miami (which did come after playing UNC), the Deacs have been competitive every time out for almost the last two months.
 
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