Pilchard
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The road-weary Deacs return home to face the rival #40 Wolfpack this Saturday. Here is the breakdown of the Pack:
2019-20 season: The 6-2 Pack took a punch to the stomach to start the season, blowing a 15 point second-half lead in a home OT loss to GT in the opener. State's slow start can largely be attributed to the absence of leading scorer Markell Johnson and Big Man DJ Funderburk for that game. Since their return, the Pack won 6 of their last 7, their one loss over that stretch was by 5 to #38 Memphis. State's schedule has been soft as their only top 100 win came last night by 15 over #60 Wisconsin. For whatever reason, the Pack brings out the best in Danny Manning's Deacs as WF is 4-1 at home against Pack under DM, including inexplicable WF wins in 2015 (State went to the Sweet 16 that year), 2016 (WF went 2-16 that year), 2019 (WF was a 10 point dog). State has been an offensive machine this year. They are currently the #9 offensive team in the country with a 111.6 adjusted efficiency rating. State does not turn the ball over (#10 in TO%) and they convert their "paint touches" (53% from 2). Defense has been another story. They are currently #103 in defensive efficiency, and their only defensive strength has been forcing turnovers (#64 in TO %), break that first trap, and get a layup; this has always been the problem with Keatts' defensive philosophy.
Lineup: Keatts uses an 8 man rotation. Against Wisky, the Pack started: 6-1 Markell Johnson, 6-0 Braxton Beverly, 6-5 Devon Daniels (Utah transfer), 6-7 Jericole Hellums and 6-11 frosh Manny Bates. Although he didn't start last night, 6-5 CJ Bryce leads the Pack in minutes, while 6-10 Funderburk and 6-8 Lehigh transfer Pat Andree also get plenty of run. Hellems led State with 23 points against Wisconsin. All 8 in the Pack rotation have scored in double figures at least once this year, and all except for Bates and Funderburk are threats from deep; Andree, the Lehigh transfer is hitting 46%. Hellums has been hot of late with 17 in the loss to Memphis and 23 last night (4 of 6 from 3).
The bottom line: KP projects a 74-72 Pack win. State will be focused as last year's loss to WF (the Deacs almost blew a 22 point lead) may have kept the Pack out of the NCAAs, and the Pack will want to avoid an 0-2 ACC start. That said, the Pack routinely finds ways to lose to WF (at least at the Joel). Last year, Torry Johnson essentially had a perfect game: 3-3 from the field 4-4 from the line, including a key late bucket to seal the WF win. Expect this game to be tight, and give the Deacs a reasonable chance to pull off another win over State. WF has a week off after this game to enable our student-athletes to focus on their fall semester exams.
2019-20 season: The 6-2 Pack took a punch to the stomach to start the season, blowing a 15 point second-half lead in a home OT loss to GT in the opener. State's slow start can largely be attributed to the absence of leading scorer Markell Johnson and Big Man DJ Funderburk for that game. Since their return, the Pack won 6 of their last 7, their one loss over that stretch was by 5 to #38 Memphis. State's schedule has been soft as their only top 100 win came last night by 15 over #60 Wisconsin. For whatever reason, the Pack brings out the best in Danny Manning's Deacs as WF is 4-1 at home against Pack under DM, including inexplicable WF wins in 2015 (State went to the Sweet 16 that year), 2016 (WF went 2-16 that year), 2019 (WF was a 10 point dog). State has been an offensive machine this year. They are currently the #9 offensive team in the country with a 111.6 adjusted efficiency rating. State does not turn the ball over (#10 in TO%) and they convert their "paint touches" (53% from 2). Defense has been another story. They are currently #103 in defensive efficiency, and their only defensive strength has been forcing turnovers (#64 in TO %), break that first trap, and get a layup; this has always been the problem with Keatts' defensive philosophy.
Lineup: Keatts uses an 8 man rotation. Against Wisky, the Pack started: 6-1 Markell Johnson, 6-0 Braxton Beverly, 6-5 Devon Daniels (Utah transfer), 6-7 Jericole Hellums and 6-11 frosh Manny Bates. Although he didn't start last night, 6-5 CJ Bryce leads the Pack in minutes, while 6-10 Funderburk and 6-8 Lehigh transfer Pat Andree also get plenty of run. Hellems led State with 23 points against Wisconsin. All 8 in the Pack rotation have scored in double figures at least once this year, and all except for Bates and Funderburk are threats from deep; Andree, the Lehigh transfer is hitting 46%. Hellums has been hot of late with 17 in the loss to Memphis and 23 last night (4 of 6 from 3).
The bottom line: KP projects a 74-72 Pack win. State will be focused as last year's loss to WF (the Deacs almost blew a 22 point lead) may have kept the Pack out of the NCAAs, and the Pack will want to avoid an 0-2 ACC start. That said, the Pack routinely finds ways to lose to WF (at least at the Joel). Last year, Torry Johnson essentially had a perfect game: 3-3 from the field 4-4 from the line, including a key late bucket to seal the WF win. Expect this game to be tight, and give the Deacs a reasonable chance to pull off another win over State. WF has a week off after this game to enable our student-athletes to focus on their fall semester exams.
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