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Chat Thread: Bringing Back the $%&*?#@($#*@)#(

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Smart quant guys at my firm ran an epidemiological simulation on the coronavirus.

The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).

They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.

So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.

But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.
 
Used to think Harmonious was Brews but now don’t think so?

there are a few posters that i wonder about sometimes: brews, tbr, fyc, and dirk, mainly. just straight up vanished, as far as I can tell?
 
Smart quant guys at my firm ran an epidemiological simulation on the coronavirus.

The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).

They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.

So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.

But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.

Did he have a sense of how that mortality rate varies by age? I was talking with a colleague about this earlier re: the SARS scare, which ultimately operated more or less like the flu in terms of mortality rates being really high among the oldest and youngest groups and pretty low for the middle of the distribution.
 
Brews or his lady post a lot of cool food pics on the Gram, so he seems like he’s doing alright.
 
Brews or his lady post a lot of cool food pics on the Gram, so he seems like he’s doing alright.

i wonder if the mods keep a running list of who's who

i think about changing my handle sometimes, but i think milhouse and RJ would be too confused
 
Pretty much all respiratory illness is going to skew young, elderly, and pre existing conditions. There are very few infectious disease that straight up kill you with high mortality rates. The rule of thumb usually is the higher the mortality rate the harder to transmit, the less severe the easier to transmit.

For something like a Coronavirus you don’t know which way it will go as it adapts to a human host, it’s an RNA virus so it’s mutation rate is something like 1,000 to 10,000 times greater than DNA, it has a rapid replication phase and every new replication either is advantageous or deleterious. Just by random chance the virus will be more severe in one person compared to another regardless of host. The good news is for most mutations the further you get from the original strain the greater the fitness cost, usually replication rate and transmission. The different strains will start competing with each other and survival of the fitness wins out most likely resulting in the scenario of an attenuated easily transmissible virus that circulates the world, also a smaller chance it goes the other way and then you’re looking at something like pandemic flu type levels of death.
 
Basically ran out of gummies and didn’t have time to get more this morning. Also have the kids with us. Wife’s bag actually got a close look for some unknown reason. Might have been the Cap’n Crunch Berries. We need to get some dispensaries in DC so I can just drive home with it.

There are places where you can buy a sticker and get what you want as an added bonus.
 
Smart quant guys at my firm ran an epidemiological simulation on the coronavirus.

The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).

They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.

So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.

But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.

roger sends
 
Did he have a sense of how that mortality rate varies by age? I was talking with a colleague about this earlier re: the SARS scare, which ultimately operated more or less like the flu in terms of mortality rates being really high among the oldest and youngest groups and pretty low for the middle of the distribution.

Nothing like that. Though they did mention that the mortality rate in Wuhan is like 9%... So that place is likely to be a complete shitshow.

Of course, who knows what the real numbers are... This is China, after all.
 
Smart quant guys at my firm ran an epidemiological simulation on the coronavirus.

The quick and dirty was that it is about 2x as contagious as the flu and 30x more deadly (~3% mortality rate).

They ran a bunch of simulations with various inputs, so there are obvious statistical ranges... But that’s at least in the ballpark.

So even worst case, it’s not apocalyptic.

But it’s going to get worse before it gets better... May not peak until March.

I came across similar numbers today, but don't worry, District says its NBD.
 
I’d say the amount of misinformation out there is exceptional. The case count is going to continue to rise as people get processed, not necessarily because things are falling apart everyone panic. There is no true rapid test, like the gold standard flu, malaria, HIV type tests. The only current reliable test that they are referring to as a rapid test, not really rapid by true definition, is an RT PCR that takes around 4 hours and outside of a few places in the world the capacity to run a high volume of diagnostic level tests of that caliber is low.
 
I’m gonna be in Delhi for a week starting Saturday

On a scale of one to dead, how fucked?
 
I’d say you’re safe because there are about two billion people between you and the flu there.
 
Do you usually order the kale salad with salmon or the Reuben ?

Krystal filed for bankruptcy recently right?

Also some of you have clearly never been to a Popeyes haha. Good chicken but they are hands down the worst run franchises.

The only Krystal I ever get to go to is just north of Gaffney, right off of I-85, in a co-location with a Circle K. Unfortunately my family hates it and it's not far enough from Charlotte for a needed pit stop. They're still going strong in Georgia tough.

Looks like there's a Krystal in Commerce, GA, right next to the I-85 interchange, but that's a fucked up busy exit with outlets and shit.

Say Hey Deac loved him some Krystal man. I think we drove to Elon one time just to get one. I always found both that and WC p nasty. There was a WC around the corner from me in Columbus conveniently on the way back from a neighborhood bar my roommates and I frequented, but I would almost always go for a Hound Dogs 'za with the spicy sauce instead. That sauce was spicy, damn. Good shit though.

There is no better fast food burger, nay, potentially no better burger in the world, than In-N-Out. Shake Shack can't hold a candle to it.

hmmm....


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okay trying to clear out my list of old quotes and nothing seems to get rid of them so that i can quote something new. HALP
 
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