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KP Report - @ Notre Dame - Wednesday 7 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

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Our banged up Deacs travel to the heart of the ACC... South Bend, Indiana... to challenge Mike Brey's Fighting Irish squad. Have always liked Mike Brey, but looks to me like he is on auto-pilot right now as this will now be the third year in a row without an NCAA appearance for the Irish, and it doesn't look like that trend is changing anytime soon with 4 senior starters. Here is the skinny on the Irish:

This season: ND is less than mediocre (FWIW, when the season started, just could not understand why so many projected ND to be an NCAA team, they were 14-19 last year and added ZERO incoming freshman; they were terrible and now are ordinary at best). The Irish are 11-8 (2-6), and they have beaten essentially nobody. They have two top 100 wins (WF has 3): #49 Cuse on the road (by 1) and #84 GT on the road by 4. The Irish have managed to lose all 3 ACC of their home games (#164 BC, #9 L'ville and #49 Cuse). ND's best home win was by 2 in OT over #123 Toledo. Impressive. If that resume sounds underwhelming, it is. FWIW, ND is currently on a 3-14 run (yes, worse than WF; worse than BC) in ACC games going back to February 16 of last year (which is relevant because this is the same Irish team). That poor stretch of 3 wins out of 17 ACC games includes a 75-68 loss at WF last season (Chill had 20 - was 5 for 7 from 3; TJ Gibbs had 23 for ND).

ACC offensive and defensive trends for the Irish: Notre Dame can score and can be scored upon. The Irish are #2 in the ACC on offense, but #14 on defense. On offense, they don't turn the ball over (#1 in TO%), and are very dependent on the 3 point shot (39% of their offense comes from 3 pointers #2 in the ACC). They also shoot FTs well 74% (#4). The Irish are a mess on defense. Other than not fouling much (a key for WF's offense), ND struggles in all areas. The Irish give up an effective FG% of 54% (#14), and are DFL in the conference in 3 point defense (opponents are hitting 43% from behind the arc against ND).

The lineup: The Irish are tall (#16 in the country in average height), slow, experienced (#1 in the ACC in experience), and play a short rotation (#13 in the ACC in bench minutes). In last Saturday's loss at FSU, ND played only 7, starting: 6-3 Prentiss Hubb, 6-3 TJ Gibbs, 6-6 Rex Pflueger, 6-9 John Mooney (who can forget the Mooney cam?) and 6-11 Juwan Durham (UCONN Transfer). All of the starters, except Hubb, are seniors. Off the bench the Irish played 6-6 Dane Goodwin and 6-10 Nate Laszewski. Everyone except Durham shoots the 3. Gibbs (40%) and Goodwin (42%) are the Irish most reliable threats from deep. The plodding Mooney is ND's leading scorer; he has hit double figures in every game, but 1.

The bottom line: KP projects a 79-71 ND win. If WF was healthy, would like the Deacs' chances. ND either loses or plays close (over its last 33 ACC games, ND has won only ONE conference game by double digits). If Chill and Chaundee remain out, got to think even this ND team would have their way with the Deacs. The key for WF will be defending the 3 point line, and taking advantage of ND's slow-footed defense. ND will do enough to eke out a win.
 
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In spite of all of that, I think this is a game where I think we get beat handily.

We're banged up. It's a mid-week road conference game. It has to be obvious to the team that they aren't going anywhere this season. I just can't see us putting in a good effort.

Notre Dame is not good. But I think they'll be motivated after feeling cheated their last time out @ FSU. They also dropped consecutive home games to an improving Syracuse (by 2) and Top 10 Louisville (by 3).

Give me ND by more than the 8 point KP spread, regardless of who plays for Wake.
 
Also, I'm surprised that Nate Laszewski hasn't been better for the Irish. Really liked his game coming out of high school and on last year's ND squad.

TJ Gibbs is going to light us up.
 
In spite of all of that, I think this is a game where I think we get beat handily.

We're banged up. It's a mid-week road conference game. It has to be obvious to the team that they aren't going anywhere this season. I just can't see us putting in a good effort.

Notre Dame is not good. But I think they'll be motivated after feeling cheated their last time out @ FSU. They also dropped consecutive home games to an improving Syracuse (by 2) and Top 10 Louisville (by 3).

Give me ND by more than the 8 point KP spread, regardless of who plays for Wake.

I can see the angle that WF played with max effort against UVA, lost in emotionally crushing fashion and may play with an emotional/physical hangover on Wednesday. Also, ND has to win this game as they will be tied with Miami in DFL with a loss. With that said, don't agree with the position that this team has given up (realize that everyone that posts here has with legitimate cause), with the exception of just a couple of games, this mish mash of players seems to consistently play hard despite injuries and curious side-line tactics. While it won't amount to much, think this version of the Deacs will play with effort until the end.
 
Also, I'm surprised that Nate Laszewski hasn't been better for the Irish. Really liked his game coming out of high school and on last year's ND squad.

TJ Gibbs is going to light us up.

Laszewski adopts the Tyrece Rice model and has a career night against the Deacs, just to hammer home the point to Manning that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
 
I can see the angle that WF played with max effort against UVA, lost in emotionally crushing fashion and may play with an emotional/physical hangover on Wednesday. Also, ND has to win this game as they will be tied with Miami in DFL with a loss. With that said, don't agree with the position that this team has given up (realize that everyone that posts here has with legitimate cause), with the exception of just a couple of games, this mish mash of players seems to consistently play hard despite injuries and curious side-line tactics. While it won't amount to much, think this version of the Deacs will play with effort until the end.

Completely agree that the team hasn't given up. For whatever reason, they seem to like Manning and enjoy each other.

I just think the last couple of losses, the nagging injuries, and the travel make this a tough spot.
 
Keep stacking those Ls, baby.
 
I'm never going to pull against us, but if winning any game increases the odds that Danny would be retained even by 1/10th of a percent, then winning is losing.
 
Brey going through the motions on auto pilot beats Danny using all his coaching skillz and acumen everyday, every time.
 
Chaundee has been hurt a long time. Any word on shutting him down for the year?
 
Brey going through the motions on auto pilot beats Danny using all his coaching skillz and acumen everyday, every time.

Everyday. Every time. Except for the last time WF and ND played. That's the point. ND has somehow been worse than WF.
 
In spite of all of that, I think this is a game where I think we get beat handily.

We're banged up. It's a mid-week road conference game. It has to be obvious to the team that they aren't going anywhere this season. I just can't see us putting in a good effort.

Notre Dame is not good. But I think they'll be motivated after feeling cheated their last time out @ FSU. They also dropped consecutive home games to an improving Syracuse (by 2) and Top 10 Louisville (by 3).

Give me ND by more than the 8 point KP spread, regardless of who plays for Wake.

The evidence doesn't really point to us getting blown out. Other than dook, we lost to FSU by 10, VT by 10 and State by 9. Whatever this team is, they either hang around, blow a lead or make it respectable by the end.

The fact that White doesn't seem to care if he's on the road or at home balances out some of our issues. If he gets 18-22 @ND, we'll have a game (and we don't go 5-30 from 3).
 
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