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2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

What’s a non-Bernie fan to do with their primary vote at this point?


Seems like only Biden has some chance to beat Sanders as things stand. But I think others are better choices.





Of course I’ll vote for whoever is the Dem nominee in the general.
 
ChrisL68 said:
The latest fivethirtyeight forecast has Sanders at 1600 pledged delegates and Biden at 1200. Sanders momentum seems to be waning and moderates are coalescing around Biden.

A big Biden win in South Carolina would narrow that projection considerably I guess and it seems that's the way it is trending
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I know a lot of people here will disagree with this, but I think there are reasons the following makes sense. If no one has a first ballot victory, I think the most logical move is to pick someone who isn't running. If Bernie doesn't have enough delegates and gets the nod, Biden supporters will be less enthused. If Biden gets it without having enough delegates will claim the fix is in. If Bloomberg buys the second ballot, Biden and Bernie supporters will scream. But to get to a consensus candidate, each side will have to agree and get something in the party platform.

It's likely the party is going to be somewhat shaky for several weeks before and a week of two after the convention, but that's better than a total fracture.
 
ConnorEl said:
What’s a non-Bernie fan to do with their primary vote at this point?


Seems like only Biden has some chance to beat Sanders as things stand. But I think others are better choices.





Of course I’ll vote for whoever is the Dem nominee in the general.
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That's why I literally waited till yesterday to early vote for Biden.
 
RJKarl said:
I know a lot of people here will disagree with this, but I think there are reasons the following makes sense. If no one has a first ballot victory, I think the most logical move is to pick someone who isn't running. If Bernie doesn't have enough delegates and gets the nod, Biden supporters will be less enthused. If Biden gets it without having enough delegates will claim the fix is in. If Bloomberg buys the second ballot, Biden and Bernie supporters will scream. But to get to a consensus candidate, each side will have to agree and get something in the party platform.

It's likely the party is going to be somewhat shaky for several weeks before and a week of two after the convention, but that's better than a total fracture.
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I’d vote for a third party (hopefully one of the current Dem candidates) before I voted for a brokered Dem candidate who hadn’t even run.
 
RJKarl said:
I know a lot of people here will disagree with this, but I think there are reasons the following makes sense. If no one has a first ballot victory, I think the most logical move is to pick someone who isn't running. If Bernie doesn't have enough delegates and gets the nod, Biden supporters will be less enthused. If Biden gets it without having enough delegates will claim the fix is in. If Bloomberg buys the second ballot, Biden and Bernie supporters will scream. But to get to a consensus candidate, each side will have to agree and get something in the party platform.

It's likely the party is going to be somewhat shaky for several weeks before and a week of two after the convention, but that's better than a total fracture.
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I’d argue for a Warren/Klob ticket or Warren/Harris. The two least offensive and most prepared candidates who unfortunately never garnered enough support in spatially strategic locations. Warren has a lot of support nationally, just not enough in the early primary states.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Interesting take on how to beat Trump from Thomas Friedman.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/opini...ts-heres-sure-fire-way-to-defeat-donald-trump
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:golfclap:

I don't know why the candidates aren't already starting to make that sort of pitch. The mindset still seems to be - first I need to use my policy arguments to beat the field to win the nomination, and then second I need to unify the party to beat Trump. But a lot of the voters (other than some of the Bernie bros) don't care nearly as much who wins the nomination, as long as that person can actually unify the party enough to beat Trump. So show us right now how you'll pull the party together and that may be your ticket to beating the field too.
 
I keep seeing people post that article but I don’t see how that would unify the party. Only a few of those people would commit to serving. Most Democrats don’t want Romney in the next Dem administration. Plenty don’t care about cabinet appointments. Plus promising to leave multiple senate seats open is just dumb. Solid blue MA and dark red AL flipped in special elections. That’s just bad news especially in MN.
 
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DistrictDeacon said:
I’d vote for a third party (hopefully one of the current Dem candidates) before I voted for a brokered Dem candidate who hadn’t even run.
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So, you'd vote for Trump in that situation. What else will get you to vote for Trump?

Make no mistake about it, any vote that isn't for a Dem is a vote for Trump regardless of any flimsy, BS excuse you may give.
 
I think “the party” will have bigger issues than Trump if that were to happen, RJ. We’re talking about the actual death of democracy in the Democratic Party.
 
PhDeac said:
I keep seeing people post that article but I don’t see how that would unify the party. Only a few of those people would commit to serving. Most Democrats don’t want Romney in the next Dem administration. Plenty don’t care about cabinet appointments. Plus promising to leave multiple senate seats open is just dumb. Solid blue MA and dark red AL flipped in special elections. That’s just bad news especially in MN.
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It doesn't have to be the exact list of people and positions he sets out. But none of them have focused on showing how they'll bring other wings of the party into the fold. And since the field hasn't started to consolidate yet, there's a great opportunity for someone to encourage that consolidation by pro-actively welcoming others onto their team prior to beating others out.
 
birdman said:
I’d argue for a Warren/Klob ticket or Warren/Harris. The two least offensive and most prepared candidates who unfortunately never garnered enough support in spatially strategic locations. Warren has a lot of support nationally, just not enough in the early primary states.
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I think the problem would happen with Warren would be that she couldn't beat Bernie or Biden, why give it to her over them? To be honest, I think she'd have a better chance to win and win back the Senate than Bernie.
 
RJKarl said:
So, you'd vote for Trump in that situation. What else will get you to vote for Trump?

Make no mistake about it, any vote that isn't for a Dem is a vote for Trump regardless of any flimsy, BS excuse you may give.
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4% of DC voted for Trump in 2016, so we’ll be fine. But thanks for your concern.

If what you suggests happens, I’m happy not to vote for a Dem, because I wouldn’t want to support a party that lets a bunch of insiders pick a candidate who hasn’t appeared in one debate, hasn’t given one media interview, hasn’t spoken to one member of the public, has zero campaign staff, and received zero primary votes.
 
rj back at it with bad math


re: polls, a couple things:

1. I do feel like excessive polling is damaging to democracy and ramps up the game theory involved in an already-fucked-up two-party system where the only path to viability for a democratic socialist and a righ-of-center moderate are through the same party. However, I don't think banning them is a democratic either.

2. I don't think any polls regarding the Democratic primary after Super Tuesday are valuable pieces of information since undoubtedly the field will be different.
 
What math did I use?

My bad, I said something and you can say RJ said something completely different.
 
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