Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 16,878
- Reaction score
- 6,113
Roy "I'm Not Going Quit" Williams and his "not very talented" team visit LJVM tomorrow night. Here is the breakdown of the Heels sad season:
This Season: UNC sucks. After starting 5-0, UNC has won only 5 of their last 18 games, and currently sport a 10-13 (3-9) record. UNC is 4-12 against top 100 teams (WF is currently #99). A large part of UNC's struggles has been blamed on Cole Anthony's absence. While Anthony is talented, UNC is only 6-6 when Anthony plays (3-6 against top 100 teams). UNC is 2-5 on the road. UNC's one road win with Anthony in the lineup came against horrible UNCW (#21). As everyone is aware, UNC is coming off deflating home loss to Duke (UNC led by 13 with 4 minutes left; UNC blew seemingly insurmountable leads in the final seconds of regulation and OT.
UNC's offensive and defensive ratings in ACC games: UNC can't shoot. The Heels shoot 29.5% (#12) in ACC games, and only 22% of their offense comes from behind the arc (DFL in the CC). UNC does one thing well on offense: rebound. They lead the ACC in grabbing their own missed shots (36% offensive rebound rate); they also get to the line a lot (#2 in FTA/FGA), but once they get to the line, UNC misses often 64% from the line (#13). UNC has been mediocre defensively. While they don't force many TOs (#13 in defensive TO rate), they defend well behind the arc (32% - #4), and are OK at defending the paint (48% - #6). UNC tends to foul often (33% FTA per FGA - #12). UNC is #3 in the ACC in tempo.
The lineup: Brandon Robinson has missed the last two games; Jeremiah Francis essentially has missed the last 4. With Robinson out, UNC started: 6-3 Cole Anthony (6-22 from 3 since returning), 6-4 Andrew Platek (yet to crack double digits this year), 6-8 Leaky Black, 6-9 Garrison Brooks (scored in double figures 13 of the last 14 - 57% from the field), 6-10 Armando Bacot. Off the bench, plays its two disappointing transfers Christian Keeling (from Charleston Southern) and Justin Pierce (from William and Mary). With Robinson, out no UNC player is hitting better than 33% from 3. Brooks and Bacot don't shoot 3s; every other UNC player is 29% or worse from 3.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-73 win. Except for Anthony's return (which is a big "except"), WF could not ask for a better spot to play UNC coming off a disheartening loss to Duke. UNC should be easy to gameplan against: GUARD THE PAINT as UNC is inept from deep. For WF to win, Sarr must avoid foul trouble. If he is in form, Anthony is the best player on the floor, but WF has the next 3 best perimeter players (Chaundee, Chill and Andrien… Neath is better than UNC's next best guard), and I like Sarr right now more than Brooks. I think WF wins, but if the game is tight in the final few minutes, how can anyone rationally believe WF won't find a way to lose? So, WF by 8 or more or UNC by 2 or less.
This Season: UNC sucks. After starting 5-0, UNC has won only 5 of their last 18 games, and currently sport a 10-13 (3-9) record. UNC is 4-12 against top 100 teams (WF is currently #99). A large part of UNC's struggles has been blamed on Cole Anthony's absence. While Anthony is talented, UNC is only 6-6 when Anthony plays (3-6 against top 100 teams). UNC is 2-5 on the road. UNC's one road win with Anthony in the lineup came against horrible UNCW (#21). As everyone is aware, UNC is coming off deflating home loss to Duke (UNC led by 13 with 4 minutes left; UNC blew seemingly insurmountable leads in the final seconds of regulation and OT.
UNC's offensive and defensive ratings in ACC games: UNC can't shoot. The Heels shoot 29.5% (#12) in ACC games, and only 22% of their offense comes from behind the arc (DFL in the CC). UNC does one thing well on offense: rebound. They lead the ACC in grabbing their own missed shots (36% offensive rebound rate); they also get to the line a lot (#2 in FTA/FGA), but once they get to the line, UNC misses often 64% from the line (#13). UNC has been mediocre defensively. While they don't force many TOs (#13 in defensive TO rate), they defend well behind the arc (32% - #4), and are OK at defending the paint (48% - #6). UNC tends to foul often (33% FTA per FGA - #12). UNC is #3 in the ACC in tempo.
The lineup: Brandon Robinson has missed the last two games; Jeremiah Francis essentially has missed the last 4. With Robinson out, UNC started: 6-3 Cole Anthony (6-22 from 3 since returning), 6-4 Andrew Platek (yet to crack double digits this year), 6-8 Leaky Black, 6-9 Garrison Brooks (scored in double figures 13 of the last 14 - 57% from the field), 6-10 Armando Bacot. Off the bench, plays its two disappointing transfers Christian Keeling (from Charleston Southern) and Justin Pierce (from William and Mary). With Robinson, out no UNC player is hitting better than 33% from 3. Brooks and Bacot don't shoot 3s; every other UNC player is 29% or worse from 3.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-73 win. Except for Anthony's return (which is a big "except"), WF could not ask for a better spot to play UNC coming off a disheartening loss to Duke. UNC should be easy to gameplan against: GUARD THE PAINT as UNC is inept from deep. For WF to win, Sarr must avoid foul trouble. If he is in form, Anthony is the best player on the floor, but WF has the next 3 best perimeter players (Chaundee, Chill and Andrien… Neath is better than UNC's next best guard), and I like Sarr right now more than Brooks. I think WF wins, but if the game is tight in the final few minutes, how can anyone rationally believe WF won't find a way to lose? So, WF by 8 or more or UNC by 2 or less.