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KP Report -- UNC - Tuesday Night 8 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

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Roy "I'm Not Going Quit" Williams and his "not very talented" team visit LJVM tomorrow night. Here is the breakdown of the Heels sad season:

This Season: UNC sucks. After starting 5-0, UNC has won only 5 of their last 18 games, and currently sport a 10-13 (3-9) record. UNC is 4-12 against top 100 teams (WF is currently #99). A large part of UNC's struggles has been blamed on Cole Anthony's absence. While Anthony is talented, UNC is only 6-6 when Anthony plays (3-6 against top 100 teams). UNC is 2-5 on the road. UNC's one road win with Anthony in the lineup came against horrible UNCW (#21). As everyone is aware, UNC is coming off deflating home loss to Duke (UNC led by 13 with 4 minutes left; UNC blew seemingly insurmountable leads in the final seconds of regulation and OT.

UNC's offensive and defensive ratings in ACC games: UNC can't shoot. The Heels shoot 29.5% (#12) in ACC games, and only 22% of their offense comes from behind the arc (DFL in the CC). UNC does one thing well on offense: rebound. They lead the ACC in grabbing their own missed shots (36% offensive rebound rate); they also get to the line a lot (#2 in FTA/FGA), but once they get to the line, UNC misses often 64% from the line (#13). UNC has been mediocre defensively. While they don't force many TOs (#13 in defensive TO rate), they defend well behind the arc (32% - #4), and are OK at defending the paint (48% - #6). UNC tends to foul often (33% FTA per FGA - #12). UNC is #3 in the ACC in tempo.

The lineup: Brandon Robinson has missed the last two games; Jeremiah Francis essentially has missed the last 4. With Robinson out, UNC started: 6-3 Cole Anthony (6-22 from 3 since returning), 6-4 Andrew Platek (yet to crack double digits this year), 6-8 Leaky Black, 6-9 Garrison Brooks (scored in double figures 13 of the last 14 - 57% from the field), 6-10 Armando Bacot. Off the bench, plays its two disappointing transfers Christian Keeling (from Charleston Southern) and Justin Pierce (from William and Mary). With Robinson, out no UNC player is hitting better than 33% from 3. Brooks and Bacot don't shoot 3s; every other UNC player is 29% or worse from 3.

Bottom line: KP projects a 75-73 win. Except for Anthony's return (which is a big "except"), WF could not ask for a better spot to play UNC coming off a disheartening loss to Duke. UNC should be easy to gameplan against: GUARD THE PAINT as UNC is inept from deep. For WF to win, Sarr must avoid foul trouble. If he is in form, Anthony is the best player on the floor, but WF has the next 3 best perimeter players (Chaundee, Chill and Andrien… Neath is better than UNC's next best guard), and I like Sarr right now more than Brooks. I think WF wins, but if the game is tight in the final few minutes, how can anyone rationally believe WF won't find a way to lose? So, WF by 8 or more or UNC by 2 or less.
 
My edit function is not working:

UNCW is #321

KP projects a 75-73 "Wake Forest" win.
 
Prediction: Cole Anthony has career game.
 
If it's close, Manning will find a way to blow it at the end.
 
Royboy will give Danny a run for his money is snaring defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
Prediction: Cole Anthony has career game.

Agreed— we have no one who can stay in front of Anthony. Also, while Sarr is playing well, the Brooks/Bacot combo is too much for Sarr inside. I hope I’m wrong because I love to beat Carolina anytime, but I think Sarr gets in foul trouble and we take the “L”.
 
UNC will either have a hangover from the Duke game or come out pissed, either way we probably lose, just a matter of how many. I've always considered Roy an overrated coach, but he is still miles ahead of Danny.
 
I don't know who wins this game. But I'll take a stab at it.
I'll say what most of us are figuring and predict Saar gets his 3/4 foul at about... 6:54 in the second half. Mannikin pulls him to the bench. We then go guard heavy, start chucking stupid "hero ball" threes. Roy, who's far more competent on his worse day than Dannyboy, realizes he's up against an idiot, takes advantage. He puts the ball in Anthony's hands and they start driving it every possession.
Holes wind up winning by 5 or 6.
Danny mumbles something postgame about paint touches and that's life and we move on to the next pathetic effort.
 
Realize that providing even a glimmer of hope is heresy at this point, but with Chaundee playing, WF is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 (the one non-cover was against A&T), and all 5 covers have been easy (Xavier, @ Pitt, Clemson, @L'ville, @Cuse). Counting all games, regardless of Chaundee's availability, WF has covered 6 of its last 7, and the one non-cover was due to Manning's assbackwards decision to start fouling the best free throwing shooting team (Notre Dame) in the conference with more than minute to go down 5 (WF ended up losing a tight game by 10 -- the line was 9.5). WF has been significantly outplaying its perceived awful level for weeks. To win ATS, got to be willing "to bet the trash". WF has been a trashy value for a while.

Even with a coach that always seems to find a way to lose, if WF stays healthy over the last seven, can see WF winning 3 maybe 4 of those games. The team is actually playing pretty well (except when the game is on the line).
 
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Even with a coach that always seems to find a way to lose, if WF stays healthy over the last seven, can see WF winning 3 maybe 4 of those games. The team is actually playing pretty well (except when the game is on the line).


... and there's the "out" which I fear may well happen.



Btw, I agree with you and not shooting the messenger. I just foresee any glimmer of success being spun come March and April. Hope I'm wrong!
 
I am pulling for WFU to lose out. Time for a change.

Even if we win 3 or 4 and finish 14 - 16 is that good?

I think we lose to Dook, State, ND, @ Miami and @UNC.

UNC at home and GT a toss up.

So tomorrow night I will be chanting .....
TAR - HEELS!!! TAR HEELS!!! TAR - HEELS !!!!
 
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I am pulling for WFU to lose out. Time for a change.

Even if we win 3 or 4 and finish 14 - 16 is that good?

I think we lose to Dook, State, ND, @ Miami and @UNC.

UNC at home and GT a toss up.

So tomorrow night I will be chanting .....
TAR - HEELS!!! TAR HEELS!!! TAR - HEELS !!!!

That is pretty sorry if you ask me. Now if you want to chant "Go other team, go other team" that is ok but never cheer for the baby blue in anything.... EVER
 
I am pulling for WFU to lose out. Time for a change.

Even if we win 3 or 4 and finish 14 - 16 is that good?

I think we lose to Dook, State, ND, @ Miami and @UNC.

UNC at home and GT a toss up.

So tomorrow night I will be chanting .....
TAR - HEELS!!! TAR HEELS!!! TAR - HEELS !!!!

Stop by Walmart before the game and pick up a little something in the proper shade of blue.
 
Some history:

 
If the game is within ten with five minutes left, will Roy and Danny start picking fans to put in the game to ensure their team will lose?
 
I am pulling for WFU to lose out. Time for a change.

Even if we win 3 or 4 and finish 14 - 16 is that good?

I think we lose to Dook, State, ND, @ Miami and @UNC.

UNC at home and GT a toss up.

So tomorrow night I will be chanting .....
TAR - HEELS!!! TAR HEELS!!! TAR - HEELS !!!
!

That's grounds for an automatic ban isn't it? Never and I mean neeeeeeeeeeeeever, chant Tar-Heels!
 
Will the promotion be- buy one ticket for $0.50 and get six free?
 
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