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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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Italy continues to make small progress towards flattening the curve. New cases day over day are down 12%. Total new cases up less than 6%. It is really sad to call them a "success" right now given the how devastating each day is there. But they are making progress. New cases today were just over 5,200. Only 2 days in the 10 days prior had fewer new cases. 6 of the 10 prior days had new cases in excess of 5,500. Really want to see them make even more progress. One thing that worries me (and concerns me for the US) is how the cases have been largely in one area. Do not want to see a big wave migrate to the South.
 
Bad Flu 69 fucking killed Joe Diffie. Performer of my favorite song ever, John Deere Green.
 
Looks like Falwell's move to reopen Liberty is really going swell: "As of Friday, Dr. Eppes said, nearly a dozen Liberty students were sick with symptoms that suggest Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. Three were referred to local hospital centers for testing. Another eight were told to self-isolate."

“Liberty will be notifying the community as deemed appropriate and required by law,” Mr. Falwell said in an interview on Sunday when confronted with the numbers. He added that any student returning now to campus would be required to self-quarantine for 14 days...“I can’t be sure what’s going on with individuals who are not being tested but who are advised to self-isolate,” said Kerry Gateley, the health director of the Central Virginia Health District, which covers Lynchburg. “I would assume that if clinicians were concerned enough about the possibility of Covid-19 disease to urge self-isolation that appropriate screening and testing would be arranged.”

"Of the 1,900 students who initially returned last week to campus, Mr. Falwell said more than 800 had left. But he said he had “no idea” how many students had returned to off-campus housing. “If I were them, I’d be more nervous,” Falwell added, because they live in more crowded conditions."

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/politics/coronavirus-liberty-university-falwell.html
 
thatguy2016 said:
Has this website been brought up?

http://covid19.healthdata.org/

I just stumbled across it - the breadth of the team is impressive

These are scary projections, but they fall well short of Cuomo's stated need for 30,000 ventilators; so I am wondering what is his source?

And I am asking this not to minimize the threat but to attempt to understand it; as I said, this site has scary projections
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The usual disclaimers aside, as I don't do or fully understand this kind of modeling, but I think it's very good work, but relies on some possibly optimistic assumptions. They bring up a lot of potential weaknesses in the white paper that aren't being reported correctly. I found this tweet thread to be a good overview. The whole thing is worth a read, but I'll link a couple of specific tweets

I had no idea Liberty dorms were so fancy.

Don’t they have a mandatory once a week convocation in which all the students sit together in a chapel?
 
tiltdeac said:
The usual disclaimers aside, as I don't do or fully understand this kind of modeling, but I think it's very good work, but relies on some possibly optimistic assumptions. They bring up a lot of potential weaknesses in the white paper that aren't being reported correctly. I found this tweet thread to be a good overview. The whole thing is worth a read, but I'll link a couple of specific tweets
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Thank you. The study and feedback are quite a lot to attempt to absorb but I'll dig into Bergstrom's tweets.
 
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Good thing my FIL works in a hospital in Lynchburg. Hopefully he can just stay buried in the pathology lab and have little to no interactions with anyone.
 
BarcaDeac said:
Good thing my FIL works in a hospital in Lynchburg. Hopefully he can just stay buried in the pathology lab and have little to no interactions with anyone.
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If it's Lyncgburg General, they have a Covid-19 patient in critical condition in ICU.
 
thatguy2016 said:
is reporting as robust on Sundays as other days of the week?
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I don't know for sure since it is country by country and everything is so fluid. Since I wrote that last post there has been some erosion in the math. Let's see where we are around 9 central and then I'll offer a summary. This type of analysis is really basic and it only holds weight as trends country by country become evident. I think it is happening now in Italy. Everywhere else it is harder to say.
 
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Coronavirus / Bad Flu 69 !!

WFU71 said:
If it's Lyncgburg General, they have a Covid-19 patient in critical condition in ICU.
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I wonder how many hospitals in small cities the size of Lynchburg don’t have COVID-19 patients yet. It’s likely they will eventually.

A house cat in Belgium was diagnosed with COVID-19. Its owner has it from traveling in Italy.
 
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PhDeac said:
I wonder how many hospitals in small cities the size of Lynchburg don’t have COVID-19 patients yet. It’s likely they will eventually.

A house cat in Belgium was diagnosed with COVID-19. Its owner has it from traveling in Italy.
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If that NY Times article is accurate, it looks as if the hospital in Lynchburg will have some patients soon.
 
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