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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

Grabs Turds Bare said:
The high temps should help us with reduced transmission. No idea if that mitigates the crowds at the protests.
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This is pretty much a hope and a prayer. "It's disappear in April, like a miracle" kind of thinking based on how the flu operates. There is no evidence that humidity or warmth depresses transmission of corona virus.
 
I think the hope of a summer respite comes from the Spanish Flu

1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif


We'll see if this follows the same trajectory.
 
awaken said:
I think the hope of a summer respite comes from the Spanish Flu

1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif


We'll see if this follows the same trajectory.
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I am not sure how widely known it is but, corona viruses are not flu viruses.
 
birdman said:
I am not sure how widely known it is but, corona viruses are not flu viruses.
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You're right. The two pandemics are compared so often, it is easy to conflate the two causes. This article was helpful in both comparing and contrasting them.
https://www.biospace.com/article/compare-1918-spanish-influenza-pandemic-versus-covid-19/

With all the similarities, it should be emphasized that there are several significant differences between the two pandemics. First off, simply, is that COVID-19 is not influenza, it is more like a chronic acute pneumonia. They are both caused by novel viruses, but different types of viruses with different methods of action and infectiousness.
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I've read somewhere (no link, sorry) that influenza doesn't do well in temperate weather, which is to say the non-tropical summer/summer weather for most of the US. It does well in cold/dry weather and really hot, really humid weather.
It spreads in the tropics year round, but only the late fall/winter/early spring in temperate climates.
 
Exponential is still exponential. If the R0 is 2 in the summer but 3 in the winter, it still gets everywhere.... fast. Just not quite as fast.
 
Basically whats happening is that we are just remaining at a constant. For every positive there is an equal negative and so as I said it will just be a constant smoldering of cases of peaks and valley in different locations. For example warm and humid weather, most likely it has some positives, things like humidity and the difficulty of respiratory drop spread when the air is heavy stuff like that. So say it was hot and humid and we did a stricter lockdown as before then instead of like a rate of 1,000 maybe the weather cuts it to a rate of 500. Now though we aren't doing lockdowns, more people are out so the positive benefit of weather is negated by other activities so back to 1,000 we go. Everyone wear a mask, down to 500 we go, enough people don't wear a mask because my freedoms! and more movement, back to 1,000 we go. Social distancing in restaurants, closed offices down to 500, protesters in crowded streets marching and yelling, back to 1000.
 
Unfortunately, my superpower is somehow always sitting right in front of someone with the worst cough in the room/plane/closed space, so I am still doomed.
 
birdman said:
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How many millions of people were at the beach or marching for George in Florida during that period? Relatively speaking, 4,000 doesn't sound like a lot.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
How many millions of people were at the beach or marching for George in Florida during that period? Relatively speaking, 4,000 doesn't sound like a lot.
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Three cases over the weekend would be from Memorial Day weekend.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
How many millions of people were at the beach or marching for George in Florida during that period? Relatively speaking, 4,000 doesn't sound like a lot.
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Our new detected case rates in Florida are back to what they were in early April when the lock-downs started. Heat and humidity are having little to no discernible effect on transmission.
 
birdman said:
Our new detected case rates in Florida are back to what they were in early April when the lock-downs started. Heat and humidity are having little to no discernible effect on transmission.
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Florida has over 60,000 active cases now. In April they had far less. 4,000 in three days generated from 60,000+ is a far better transmission rate than 4,000 in three days generated from 5,000 or whatever it was in early April. Unless, of course, 60,000 people had it in early April as well, which makes the death rate even more minuscule.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Florida has over 60,000 active cases now. In April they had far less. 4,000 in three days generated from 60,000+ is a far better transmission rate than 4,000 in three days generated from 5,000 or whatever it was in early April. Unless, of course, 60,000 people had it in early April as well, which makes the death rate even more minuscule.
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This is kind of nonsensical. 64k cases in FL is cumulative, not current. Testing rates and drastically varied through time so we have no idea what the relative infection rate was two months ago vs now. The point is that the number of people sick enough to get tested is back to the level it was 2-months ago when the weather was cooler and the humidity was way lower.
 
with all the walking back of the walkbacked walkbacking, i have no idea what the advice du jour is. (yes i am aware that this sounds like something 2&2 would say.)
 
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