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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

Goddamn Palma. I hope you’re as right on that as you are on most things, bro.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Just saw on the presser that we have the coronavirus under control. Whew. Let’s hit the bars again.
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Whoops never mind. Massachusetts bans on premises consumption at all bars and restaurants through April 17. I guess we don’t have it under control.
 
RJKarl said:
Went to the store for a couple of things. The paper aisle. bread aisle and meat aisle were empty.

Mako- RE: step into my office- Harvey Weinstein says hello.
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Wellman now looks like a visionary by warning the world that the worst era of unwiped ass had yet to come.
 
I think testing would greatly improve the Palma worst case scenario future. There is a way to contain the virus and it requires knowing who has the virus and that includes the asymptomatic so they can be properly isolated. At some point I would think there would be the development of an RDT, or at least serological testing that can be done. I read some papers that they already have serological assays in development in China and such. As long as you find a low cross reactive antibody, difficult but there’s always some, you probably could get like a .95 or so on a ROC curve, good enough for mass surveillance, Results in 30 minutes to an hour, cheap, and the ability to run millions of tests a day. You start doing that you can start way better quarantine measures.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
I think testing would greatly improve the Palma worst case scenario future. There is a way to contain the virus and it requires knowing who has the virus and that includes the asymptomatic so they can be properly isolated. At some point I would think there would be the development of an RDT, or at least serological testing that can be done. I read some papers that they already have serological assays in development in China and such. As long as you find a low cross reactive antibody, difficult but there’s always some, you probably could get like a .95 or so on a ROC curve, good enough for mass surveillance, Results in 30 minutes to an hour, cheap, and the ability to run millions of tests a day. You start doing that you can start way better quarantine measures.
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Assuming you're at 100k cases nationwide right now in the US, you get to 100M cases in 2 months if it keeps up with a simple 2x multiplier every 6 days. Some municipalities may be able to slow it significantly if they shut down all businesses, but I don't see that level of commitment nationwide.

If the number of cases are significantly less, you buy yourself a couple weeks.
 
But the toughest part to figure out to me how this ends other than a vaccine. Cause even if you reduce it, eventually companies and people don't have the ability to stay at home for a significant portion of time. So it will just flare back up again, so at some point you just choose to let it go onwards and kill those it can.
 
California ordered to close all bars, but not enforceable, yet. Restaurants to be at 50% capacity. Hotels & Motels are being ordered to house homeless. Maybe CA & NYC can slow the curve. Not counting on it in states like NC & the midwest.
 
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It’s not as simple as you are making it out to be, even the most basic epidemiological SIR model has more variables that will prevent continuous doubling simply sick isolate, recovered are protected, and that simplistic model is where all individuals in a population make contact at an identical rate and have identical probabilities of disease transmission to those contacts per time. That’s why the trendy bend the curve thing has been out there because the curve will bend, it’s the UKs gamble that you isolate the most vulnerable, cause a quick curve bend using healthy people to fill in the R of the SIR model.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
It’s not as simple as you are making it out to be, even the most basic epidemiological SIR model has more variables that will prevent continuous doubling simply sick isolate, recovered are protected, and that simplistic model is where all individuals in a population make contact at an identical rate and have identical probabilities of disease transmission to those contacts per time. That’s why the trendy bend the curve thing has been out there because the curve will bend, it’s the UKs gamble that you isolate the most vulnerable, cause a quick curve bend using healthy people to fill in the R of the SIR model.
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Yeah, that could be interesting, read a bit about that earlier today. But also read there's some evidence from Asia of people getting re-infected.
 
palmab03 said:
California ordered to close all bars, but not enforceable, yet. Restaurants to be at 50% capacity. Hotels & Motels are being ordered to house homeless. Maybe CA & NYC can slow the curve. Not counting on it in states like NC & the midwest.
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California is super cool to the homeless.
 
palmab03 said:
Assuming you're at 100k cases nationwide right now in the US, you get to 100M cases in 2 months if it keeps up with a simple 2x multiplier every 6 days. Some municipalities may be able to slow it significantly if they shut down all businesses, but I don't see that level of commitment nationwide.

If the number of cases are significantly less, you buy yourself a couple weeks.
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It's doubling every 3 days, not 6.
 
This shit sucks. NYC schools closed until at least April 20th, going to start online learning next week. Only things allowed to open starting tuesday are grocery stores, bodega, pharmacies and restaurants for delivery only.
 
DaDeacs said:
This shit sucks. NYC schools closed until at least April 20th, going to start online learning next week. Only things allowed to open starting tuesday are grocery stores, bodega, pharmacies and restaurants for delivery only.
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The hit on local economies, nationwide, is going to be huge.
 
Looks like about 10% of the workers in our country work in restaurants
 
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