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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

Louis Gossett Jr said:
It’s not as simple as you are making it out to be, even the most basic epidemiological SIR model has more variables that will prevent continuous doubling simply sick isolate, recovered are protected, and that simplistic model is where all individuals in a population make contact at an identical rate and have identical probabilities of disease transmission to those contacts per time. That’s why the trendy bend the curve thing has been out there because the curve will bend, it’s the UKs gamble that you isolate the most vulnerable, cause a quick curve bend using healthy people to fill in the R of the SIR model.
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WORDSWORDSWORDS
 
Sup dudes... I live in the middle of San Fran now... and it's a scary time
 
Being home is a weird thing. Haven't spent a single dollar in an entire week. No boozing either. Bizarre
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
It’s not as simple as you are making it out to be, even the most basic epidemiological SIR model has more variables that will prevent continuous doubling simply sick isolate, recovered are protected, and that simplistic model is where all individuals in a population make contact at an identical rate and have identical probabilities of disease transmission to those contacts per time. That’s why the trendy bend the curve thing has been out there because the curve will bend, it’s the UKs gamble that you isolate the most vulnerable, cause a quick curve bend using healthy people to fill in the R of the SIR model.
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Another Case for herd immunity

 
and now for the jihadi take:

After years of urging its terrorists to attack major European cities, ISIS is now telling them to steer clear due to the coronavirus.

Any sick jihadists already in Europe, however, should stay there — presumably to sicken infidels, according to a ‘sharia’ directive printed in the group’s al-Naba newsletter, the Sunday Times of London reported.

The “healthy should not enter the land of the epidemic and the afflicted should not exit from it,” the newsletter advised.

The newsletter instructs jihadists that the “plague” is a “torment sent by God on whomsoever He wills.”

Iraq, where most of the surviving fragments of the group remain, had 110 reported coronavirus cases on Sunday morning, ten of them fatal, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking the contagion.
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https://nypost.com/2020/03/15/isis-...avel-to-europe-for-jihad-because-coronavirus/
 
Junebug said:
Can you re-state this so the stupid among us can understand?
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The UK is banking on building up herd immunity in the younger population on the basis that the young can survive the infection and are then recovered (the R in the model) and immune going forward.
 
Sitting in the parking lot of work. Teleconferencing the morning meeting. Outside crews (photogs and reporters) not allowed in the building. This is gonna be fun. I hope they let us pee behind the dumpster without penalty.
 
I got the text yesterday to not come in. I asked if it was a directive or a recommendation because our building isn’t too heavily populated and certainly will be less so now. Told to be remote unless otherwise impossible.
 
Our company is global with about 7500 employees, with only about 5% working from home usually. They spent the whole weekend spinning up servers and implementing security to allow the other 95% of employees to remotely access their office PCs from their home computers. Mainly settling up VPN clients and RDP connections for 7000 people, and getting them all to register for access, etc... It's been a bumpy start to the week.
 
in the Americas we went ahead and had everyone work at home that's not tied to production. I think other regions will follow suit.
 
I work for a healthcare provider that is actively promoting things like social distancing, minimal contact etc. They've restricted visitors into facilities and are screening people that are allowed in. Other systems in the region have pushed their non-essential staff to WFH, but I'm still being forced to go into the office and sit in meetings with 10 other people.

If I end up getting the Rona, somebody's getting stabbed.
 
Yo Shaq,

I just signed up for a MyCoronaVirusCard !
 
Liquid Karma said:
The UK is banking on building up herd immunity in the younger population on the basis that the young can survive the infection and are then recovered (the R in the model) and immune going forward.
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This is the gist of it. The most basic epidemiological models are simple assumption SIR models, there's a little math to it but S is susceptible, I is infected, and R is recovered with the assumption that at the beginning of spread Susceptible is high and Recovered is low and that as a disease moves through a population Recovered becomes high and Susceptible becomes low. That's why without mutation a virus will burn itself out as it runs out of susceptible people. The formula then is simple to play with in you can try to either up the R quickly, decrease the S, or both.

You probably then enter a philosophical argument of, should you just let the virus run its course and only change behaviors of those most susceptible and the elderly. If the mortality rate is truly low in the young healthy population then it doesn't seem like the worst plan. Thats not to say young healthy people wouldnt die, they clearly would but at what level is it acceptable, flu level?
 
 
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