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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

It’s the same thing of feelings over facts so I suppose it fits the coronavirus thread. Just anecdotes of rural America when numbers, real fucking numbers say otherwise. So put it in the pile with the vaccines don’t prevent infection because look at all the people that are vaccinated and got infected.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
lol at thinking that people in rural America use daycare as you understand it. You guys already heard from Mako how we do things.

That's what I'm trying to communicate to you guys - you're so out of touch that you don't even have a foundation to understand the problem.
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So now it’s 8 months of temporary payments of $400 per child over the past 8 months that are allowing rural parents to leave the workforce which is leading to a statewide unemployment level of…3.7%

In addition, the North Carolina labor force participation rate has held steady at 60% since 2013 - it’s currently 59.3% vs the pre-pandemic rate of…61%
 
are we not talking about the getting paid $300 a month to not work arg

because I'm pretty in touch with that financial reality.
 
Meanwhile in honest reporting about the current economic transition:

“A Record Number of New Businesses Are Starting Up In North Carolina”
https://www.wunc.org/business-econo...s-are-starting-up-in-north-carolina?_amp=true

“The secretary of state's office accepted a record number of filings for new business creations in 2020, and is projected to shatter that record in 2021.

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall says the growth in businesses began in the midst of the pandemic last summer and took off this year.

"The growth is absolutely historic," Marshall said. "Beginning in June of last year we started to see an uptick, and it was not just small [and] incremental — it was a balloon that exploded."”
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
It’s the same thing of feelings over facts so I suppose it fits the coronavirus thread. Just anecdotes of rural America when numbers, real fucking numbers say otherwise. So put it in the pile with the vaccines don’t prevent infection because look at all the people that are vaccinated and got infected.
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I am not some bumpkin that you can handwave away. There is real research done to support my argument.

Unemployment is "low." That means that available workers are working. We're not talking about available workers - we're talking about unavailable ones.

Young people aren't working. Old people are permanently leaving the job market. There isn't a sufficient number of working age people in the job market.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy...-an-abundance-of-jobs-but-a-dearth-of-workers

The Federal Reserve now projects the unemployment rate will reach 3.5% by the end of 2022, the record low rate it hit one month prior to the start of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.
Click to expand...


https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-f...nd-entrances-are-elevated-who-is-coming-back/

As above:

From February 2020 to November 2021, we find that population aging contributed -0.45 percentage points and changing participation contributed -0.87 percentage points to the total decline in LFPR.
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As the turn of the year approaches, we pause to take stock of the labor market. We find that as of the fall of 2021:

Labor force exits by those who are unemployed are concerning given the high number of job openings. Moreover, the uptick since the summer in exit rates among the employed is small but, because the pool of employed is so large, has a significant effect on LFPR and deserves attention.

Elevated churn among the prime-age population is being driven by the churn of lower-educated workers.

Labor force participation rates need to continue to increase for the economy, and particularly women, to get back on track.
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tl;dr People who are unemployed are staying unemployed; and leaving the labor market entirely. Thus, artificially lowering the "unemployment numbers."
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Meanwhile in honest reporting about the current economic transition:

“A Record Number of New Businesses Are Starting Up In North Carolina”
https://www.wunc.org/business-econo...s-are-starting-up-in-north-carolina?_amp=true

“The secretary of state's office accepted a record number of filings for new business creations in 2020, and is projected to shatter that record in 2021.

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall says the growth in businesses began in the midst of the pandemic last summer and took off this year.

"The growth is absolutely historic," Marshall said. "Beginning in June of last year we started to see an uptick, and it was not just small [and] incremental — it was a balloon that exploded."”
Click to expand...

New business =! available employees.
 
So…better wages? Guest worker program welcoming folks wanting to work?


Let’s go!
 
Also, your linked article is old as shit. It was written in July of 2021 and uses data from late 2020 and early 2021.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
tl;dr People who are unemployed are staying unemployed; and leaving the labor market entirely. Thus, artificially lowering the "unemployment numbers."
Click to expand...

I already posted the labor force participation numbers which are a single percentage point lower than pre-pandemic, which aligns with a lot of parents and caregivers being forced to leave the labor market, along with many people dying or choosing to retire early.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
Also, your linked article is old as shit. It was written in July of 2021 and uses data from late 2020 and early 2021.
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If You think the business boom ended then post the data, it’s certainly a more legitimate source of information than your lazy anecdotes about clever welfare queens
 
ConnorEl said:
So…better wages? Guest worker program welcoming folks wanting to work?


Let’s go!
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Better wages is just not an option for so many.

If I'm building a house, I can't just pay everyone who works for me $5/hr. more. The cost of the home would be astronomical.

For example, I just tried to hire a woman to clean two spec homes last month. She wanted $500/house for what was about 8 hours of work. That's $125/hr. I'm a fucking lawyer and I don't make that much sometimes.

Unskilled labor is fucking unskilled labor. Paying out the nose for it is NOT healthy for our economy. Unless you want to buy a $500,000 1,200 sq. ft. home in rural America.

I build a home at about $140/ sq. ft. (that's up from a 2018 $120 sq. ft.). With labor and materials as is, I can't see building a home for anything less than $160 sq. ft. and probably a hell of a lot more. That's a HUGE jump in a short period of time.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
So now it’s 8 months of temporary payments of $400 per child over the past 8 months that are allowing rural parents to leave the workforce which is leading to a statewide unemployment level of…3.7%

In addition, the North Carolina labor force participation rate has held steady at 60% since 2013 - it’s currently 59.3% vs the pre-pandemic rate of…61%
Click to expand...

While the state's population is growing better than 1% per year.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
If You think the business boom ended then post the data, it’s certainly a more legitimate source of information than your lazy anecdotes about clever welfare queens
Click to expand...

Post 7102 is what your 7101 should have looked like, friendo.

JuiceCrewAllStar said:
isn't this pretty easy to verify with BLS workforce participation numbers?

edit:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

Civilian labor force participation rate (Jan 2022): 61.9%
February 2020: 63.4%

and several other charts
Click to expand...

Workforce participation numbers are exactly the problem. Unemployed people are leaving the workforce. Not rejoining it.

They aren't out there just starving. They have been introduced to the dole system and are now leveraging that or another non-labor force method of sustaining.


Even as the unemployment rate has fallen back to historically low levels, the labor force participation rate (LFPR, which measures the share of the population that is employed or is unemployed and looking for work) remains depressed. This report takes a deeper dive into who is returning to work—and who is not—to better understand how the balance of the recovery might unfold.
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https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-f...nd-entrances-are-elevated-who-is-coming-back/
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
I work in a teaching field where the entire North Carolina labor force makes 15-20/hr, my dad is a kitchen manager that makes the same and manages employees making 12/hr, yet somehow neither of us, nor our coworkers know about this stupid fantasy welfare that 2&2 keeps bullshitting about. It’s make believe. The government is not paying people to stay home. North Carolina and other southern states have some of the most stringent unemployment policies in the whole country, and COVID unemployment benefits ended last summer.
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I checked recently how much an apartment was going for at Sugar Creek, and it seems like you can get a 3BR apartment for under $1,000 still. That same apartment would run about $6k in other parts of the country. There are tradeoffs to living in the middle of no where.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
Post 7102 is what your 7101 should have looked like, friendo.



Workforce participation numbers are exactly the problem. Unemployed people are leaving the workforce. Not rejoining it.

They aren't out there just starving. They have been introduced to the dole system and are now leveraging that or another non-labor force method of sustaining.




https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-f...nd-entrances-are-elevated-who-is-coming-back/
Click to expand...

For anyone unfamiliar with welfare benefits or unemployment you have to apply for jobs, and thus are included in the labor force as “actively looking for work”. Your complaints about people being paid to stay home are just so much bullshit and you aren’t able to support them with any data. Your anecdote is about trying to find a housecleaner whose rate you didn’t agree with.
 
stugotz said:
I checked recently how much an apartment was going for at Sugar Creek, and it seems like you can get a 3BR apartment for under $1,000 still. That same apartment would run about $6k in other parts of the country. There are tradeoffs to living in the middle of no where.
Click to expand...

It’s not a fucking complaint, ass. Its not clear why you make it so difficult for me to merely provide an economic perspective that you don’t have. I’m not asking for your advice or criticism, I’m just giving you context for my opinion. Unlike this board which is seemingly entirely filled with lawyers, I live and work with people who could and would take advantage of these fairytale government payments to stay home. They don’t exist, at least not to the extent that they are crippling the economy because Taco Bell is short staffed.
 
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How many pre-pandemic workers aren't reentering the workforce because they're dead? I bet it's < 800,000, but way more than 1.
 
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