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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

Grabs Turds Bare said:
It's so strange to live in a world where extroverts and "doers" are so ...impacted. It's a real double-whammy.
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TBH, I’m handling things better than I expected. I miss my friends and coworkers and can’t wait to go out to dinner or a show.
 
awaken said:
Thanks for the info - even if a bit disappointing. This is a textbook case why insurance exists, and I hope/belief those at HQ with the actuaries are trying to come up with a better product for widespread release. I would guess one of their challenges is the difficulty in spreading risk across population, since during pandemics almost everybody would be filing a claim. Usually "acts of God" are regional or localized, which still allows for spreading risk across population and time. Those that know more than I are working on this I'm sure.
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My guess is an insurance "solution" will follow more along the lines of insurance for acts of terrorism and TRIA (Terrorism Risk Insurance Act). In short, some sort of federal backstop.
 
awaken said:
Thanks for the info - even if a bit disappointing. This is a textbook case why insurance exists, and I hope/belief those at HQ with the actuaries are trying to come up with a better product for widespread release. I would guess one of their challenges is the difficulty in spreading risk across population, since during pandemics almost everybody would be filing a claim. Usually "acts of God" are regional or localized, which still allows for spreading risk across population and time. Those that know more than I are working on this I'm sure.
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Insurance depends on spreading risk over large pools. Most things that hit large groups all at once are typically excluded or super expensive bc they are extremely unprofitable or impossibly so. That’s why flood insurance is ha sled by the government and is a disaster
 
PGA Tour announces they're planning to start playing again June 11.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I made the mistake of clicking on the Tunnels Coronavirus thread, in which every other post seems to be about Trump. All politics aside, is this thing as big of a deal as the media is making it out to be? It seems like a more contagious, slightly more powerful, but shorter, version of pneumonia. I'm not sure where that ranks on things to be worried about unless you are over 75 or so or have preexisting respiratory problems. That said, if it is more serious than that then we should definitely take it seriously - but it is difficult to know how much of what the media reports is actually concerning. This gives the smell of their typical pending milkwich snowstorm school closings that ends up being 45 degrees and sunny.
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So taking another look at this 40 days later, where are we in NC with regard to "opening back up" (recognizing that a huge portion never closed down)? As proposed, let's keep this non-political, as both sides are disasters: Trump is a maniacal sociopath who has fucked this up every way possible, and Cooper's Order giving everyone an Essential Worker Participation Trophy is as impotent and useless as John Currie.

Schools are closed and I imagine will be for the remainder of the school year. Recognizing that pretty much everyone has been deemed essential other than hair dressers and waiters, it seems like the majority of white-collar workers are working from home, whereas it is business as usual for most blue collar workers. Because of my Essential Worker Participation Trophy, I drove from Charlotte to Lumberton (a/k/a the Wuhon of NC) yesterday, and from traffic and the parking lots at manufacturing plants nothing is different than normal. Go to any Lowes or Home Depot and they are doing more in-store business than ever.

We have roughly 10.5 million people in the state. Take away the kids, olds, and white collar workers, and I would think that leaves about 3 million people not social distancing in any material way because of their jobs. We have roughly 5,000 cases that have been sick enough to get tested positive, and 120 deaths. So despite Trump's bunglings and Cooper's Participation Trophies, those are pretty damn low percentages: 0.0467% of the population infected, 0.0011% of the population killed. So either whatever we are collectively doing has worked despite the criticism (doubtful), or the percentage of people who are asymptomatic is massively more than reported (more likely).

Obviously it sucks if you are one of the people who get it or are killed by it (my mom's cousin got got by the Kung Flu last week in nursing home, which blows, but he had one foot in the grave already), but in the grand scheme of things those are really, really insignificant numbers compared to other types of sickness and accidents, especially when you consider the millions of people who are not social distancing.

I assume Cooper will push the Participation Trophy Order to May 15 to match the formal school shutdown, which makes sense for a variety of reasons. Plus many schools have already called it quits for the year anyway. But does he bring the other schools back for a week or two? Or just cancel them and extend the broader Order to match? And when do the restaurants etc get reopened?

And I do realize that most of this board consists of the smarter-than-thou white collar class who haven't seen the sun in a month and consider themselves milkwich pseudoscientists because they believe any internet jockey with Excel so long as they label something a "model" despite their routine snowstorm failings, but I think it is also fair to recognize that a massive portion of the population still does not know what Zoom is and their work situation has not changed. So I think June 1 is likely the full bring it back date, but I'm interested to hear what others think.
 
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A friend in Palm Springs is going for a Covid test. He's smoked for forty years. Although he's allegedly down to less than half a pack a day, it can't be good. Hopefully, he's overly concerned.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
So taking another look at this 40 days later, where are we in NC with regard to "opening back up" (recognizing that a huge portion never closed down)? As proposed, let's keep this non-political, as both sides are disasters: Trump is a maniacal sociopath who has fucked this up every way possible, and Cooper's Order giving everyone an Essential Worker Participation Trophy is as impotent and useless as John Currie.

Schools are closed and I imagine will be for the remainder of the school year. Recognizing that pretty much everyone has been deemed essential other than hair dressers and waiters, it seems like the majority of white-collar workers are working from home, whereas it is business as usual for most blue collar workers. Because of my Essential Worker Participation Trophy, I drove from Charlotte to Lumberton (a/k/a the Wuhon of NC) yesterday, and from traffic and the parking lots at manufacturing plants nothing is different than normal. Go to any Lowes or Home Depot and they are doing more in-store business than ever.

We have roughly 10.5 million people in the state. Take away the kids, olds, and white collar workers, and I would think that leaves about 3 million people not social distancing in any material way because of their jobs. We have roughly 5,000 cases that have been sick enough to get tested positive, and 120 deaths. So despite Trump's bunglings and Cooper's Participation Trophies, those are pretty damn low percentages: 0.0467% of the population infected, 0.0011% of the population killed. So either whatever we are collectively doing has worked despite the criticism (doubtful), or the percentage of people who are asymptomatic is massively more than reported (more likely).

Obviously it sucks if you are one of the people who get it or are killed by it (my mom's cousin got got by the Kung Flu last week in nursing home, which blows, but he had one foot in the grave already), but in the grand scheme of things those are really, really insignificant numbers compared to other types of sickness and accidents, especially when you consider the millions of people who are not social distancing.

I assume Cooper will push the Participation Trophy Order to May 15 to match the formal school shutdown, which makes sense for a variety of reasons. Plus many schools have already called it quits for the year anyway. But does he bring the other schools back for a week or two? Or just cancel them and extend the broader Order to match? And when do the restaurants etc get reopened?

And I do realize that most of this board consists of the smarter-than-thou white collar class who haven't seen the sun in a month and consider themselves milkwich pseudoscientists because they believe any internet jockey with Excel so long as they label something a "model" despite their routine snowstorm failings, but I think it is also fair to recognize that a massive portion of the population still does not know what Zoom is and their work situation has not changed. So I think June 1 is likely the full bring it back date, but I'm interested to hear what others think.
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Imagine all the pregnancies you’re going to have to deal with.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
So taking another look at this 40 days later, where are we in NC with regard to "opening back up" (recognizing that a huge portion never closed down)? As proposed, let's keep this non-political, as both sides are disasters: Trump is a maniacal sociopath who has fucked this up every way possible, and Cooper's Order giving everyone an Essential Worker Participation Trophy is as impotent and useless as John Currie.

Schools are closed and I imagine will be for the remainder of the school year. Recognizing that pretty much everyone has been deemed essential other than hair dressers and waiters, it seems like the majority of white-collar workers are working from home, whereas it is business as usual for most blue collar workers. Because of my Essential Worker Participation Trophy, I drove from Charlotte to Lumberton (a/k/a the Wuhon of NC) yesterday, and from traffic and the parking lots at manufacturing plants nothing is different than normal. Go to any Lowes or Home Depot and they are doing more in-store business than ever.

We have roughly 10.5 million people in the state. Take away the kids, olds, and white collar workers, and I would think that leaves about 3 million people not social distancing in any material way because of their jobs. We have roughly 5,000 cases that have been sick enough to get tested positive, and 120 deaths. So despite Trump's bunglings and Cooper's Participation Trophies, those are pretty damn low percentages: 0.0467% of the population infected, 0.0011% of the population killed. So either whatever we are collectively doing has worked despite the criticism (doubtful), or the percentage of people who are asymptomatic is massively more than reported (more likely).

Obviously it sucks if you are one of the people who get it or are killed by it (my mom's cousin got got by the Kung Flu last week in nursing home, which blows, but he had one foot in the grave already), but in the grand scheme of things those are really, really insignificant numbers compared to other types of sickness and accidents, especially when you consider the millions of people who are not social distancing.

I assume Cooper will push the Participation Trophy Order to May 15 to match the formal school shutdown, which makes sense for a variety of reasons. Plus many schools have already called it quits for the year anyway. But does he bring the other schools back for a week or two? Or just cancel them and extend the broader Order to match? And when do the restaurants etc get reopened?

And I do realize that most of this board consists of the smarter-than-thou white collar class who haven't seen the sun in a month and consider themselves milkwich pseudoscientists because they believe any internet jockey with Excel so long as they label something a "model" despite their routine snowstorm failings, but I think it is also fair to recognize that a massive portion of the population still does not know what Zoom is and their work situation has not changed. So I think June 1 is likely the full bring it back date, but I'm interested to hear what others think.
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By far the majority of the adults I regularly interact with in NC are social distancing (many work in health care). That, plus not having kids in school have been the critical components of slowing the spread.
 
Rafi said:
By far the majority of the adults I regularly interact with in NC are social distancing (many work in health care). That, plus not having kids in school have been the critical components of slowing the spread.
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That doesn't make sense. I get that your circle is social distancing, as I said most people here hang out with similar socioeconomic people who are fortunate enough to have a job that is able to be performed remotely, or in a reduced-contact office setting. But there are millions who are not - they may be after work, but as far as we know the virus is not nocturnal. Drive around during the day tomorrow, it is pretty much like it always is. Work vans all over the place, construction sites buzzing, road crews at full force, every landscape crew under the sun running wild. I don't know where the empty street "OMG this is so surreal" Facebook pictures come from, certainly not here. If you have 10 million people and 7 million are shutting it down but 3 million are not, then the 7 million should be irrelevant, that 3 million should be kicking off a hell of a lot more than 5,000 cases if the contagiousness that is reported is to be believed. Either that or this is much less dangerous than reported. Either way it is good news, but puts us back in the 45 degree snowday scenario.

Personally I'm convinced that the NC pollen deluge acts like a natural Lysol on all exposed surfaces and the aerosols floating, but I'm always a few steps ahead of the scientists.
 
Sounds like Cooper and the leaders of urban metro areas are doing a good job managing the crisis and NC isn’t getting hit nearly as bad as you’d expect.
 
Oh good - we’ve reached the “this was all overblown” phase of the discussion.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
That doesn't make sense. I get that your circle is social distancing, as I said most people here hang out with similar socioeconomic people who are fortunate enough to have a job that is able to be performed remotely, or in a reduced-contact office setting. But there are millions who are not - they may be after work, but as far as we know the virus is not nocturnal. Drive around during the day tomorrow, it is pretty much like it always is. Work vans all over the place, construction sites buzzing, road crews at full force, every landscape crew under the sun running wild. I don't know where the empty street "OMG this is so surreal" Facebook pictures come from, certainly not here. If you have 10 million people and 7 million are shutting it down but 3 million are not, then the 7 million should be irrelevant, that 3 million should be kicking off a hell of a lot more than 5,000 cases if the contagiousness that is reported is to be believed. Either that or this is much less dangerous than reported. Either way it is good news, but puts us back in the 45 degree snowday scenario.

Personally I'm convinced that the NC pollen deluge acts like a natural Lysol on all exposed surfaces and the aerosols floating, but I'm always a few steps ahead of the scientists.
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Huge medical centers are empty. Malls are empty. YMCAs are empty. Restaurants are empty. Nursing homes are locked down. There’s no school.

Yard and construction crews drive separately to job sites, wear masks, and work outside. There is very little spread there.

You’ve made up a 3 million person figure, and weak social distancing claims because you don’t like Roy Cooper. Social distancing has been solid across NC.
 
Rafi said:
Huge medical centers are empty. Malls are empty. YMCAs are empty. Restaurants are empty. Nursing homes are locked down. There’s no school.

Yard and construction crews drive separately to job sites, wear masks, and work outside. There is very little spread there.

You’ve made up a 3 million person figure, and weak social distancing claims because you don’t like Roy Cooper. Social distancing has been solid across NC.
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No they don't. There are multiple guys in a van, nobody wears a mask but occasionally the painters if it is high volume spray, and while they are often outside they are also very often right next to each other. Three dudes lying pipe in a trench is not social distancing (that's what she said). And I'm not making up anything. Drive around tomorrow and see for yourself. Go to Lowes, go to Home Depot, count the cars on the road, go to manufacturing plants, warehouses, etc. Again, yes, lots of people who can are social distancing. But there are plenty who are not. Which again is good given the numbers, but it means that the numbers are skewed one way or another from what is being reported.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
No they don't. There are multiple guys in a van, nobody wears a mask but occasionally the painters if it is high volume spray, and while they are often outside they are also very often right next to each other. Three dudes lying pipe in a trench is not social distancing (that's what she said). And I'm not making up anything. Drive around tomorrow and see for yourself. Go to Lowes, go to Home Depot, count the cars on the road, go to manufacturing plants, warehouses, etc. Again, yes, lots of people who can are social distancing. But there are plenty who are not. Which again is good given the numbers, but it means that the numbers are skewed one way or another from what is being reported.
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Oh good, we’ve moved into the #fakenews portion of the discussion.
 
Rafi said:
Huge medical centers are empty. Malls are empty. YMCAs are empty. Restaurants are empty. Nursing homes are locked down. There’s no school.

Yard and construction crews drive separately to job sites, wear masks, and work outside. There is very little spread there.

You’ve made up a 3 million person figure, and weak social distancing claims because you don’t like Roy Cooper. Social distancing has been solid across NC.
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Whether it is 3 million, 5 million, 500,000, or 1 million, it is not an immaterial amount. If the virus is as contagious as reported, whatever that material amount is should be creating more than 5,000 positive cases. Unless it is much more asymptomatic than reported. Those are the only two options.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
Oh good, we’ve moved into the #fakenews portion of the discussion.
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Seriously.

Here’s my anecdote - all the lawn and construction crews I see are wearing masks and there are way more cars at the sites because they drive separately. Just look tomorrow.

Here’s some actual data to compare to your anecdotes. In Mecklenburg Co parks are down 15%, workplace 40%, retail 50%, and transit stations 70%. https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_US_North_Carolina_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
 
Rafi said:
Seriously.

Here’s my anecdote - all the lawn and construction crews I see are wearing masks and there are way more cars at the sites because they drive separately. Just look tomorrow.

Here’s some actual data to compare to your anecdotes. In Mecklenburg Co parks are down 15%, workplace 40%, retail 50%, and transit stations 70%. https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-11_US_North_Carolina_Mobility_Report_en.pdf
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Wonderful. So please explain how the reciprocal 85%, 60%, 50%, and 30% respective usage in Mecklenburg County, with its population of 1.11 million and 1,000 cases and 19 deaths makes sense unless either the virus does not spread as easily as reported or is much more asymptomatic than reported? To determine the danger of the spread of the virus, the issue is not the number of cases in light of who is NOT participating in society, it is the number of cases relative to those who are still actively participating in society.

What is the worst-case tolerable infection rate, 10%? Even that seems low given the low death rate, but assume it is 10%. So for our 1,000 cases that means 10,000 people would have to not be social distancing for it to be troublesome. There are a hell of lot more than 10,000 people who get the Essential Worker Participation Trophy in Meck Co, it is in the hundreds of thousands. The numbers just don't hold water.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Wonderful. So please explain how the reciprocal 85%, 60%, 50%, and 30% respective usage in Mecklenburg County, with its population of 1.11 million and 1,000 cases and 19 deaths makes sense unless either the virus does not spread as easily as reported or is much more asymptomatic than reported? To determine the danger of the spread of the virus, the issue is not the number of cases in light of who is NOT participating in society, it is the number of cases relative to those who are still actively participating in society.

What is the worst-case tolerable infection rate, 10%? Even that seems low given the low death rate, but assume it is 10%. So for our 1,000 cases that means 10,000 people would have to not be social distancing for it to be troublesome. There are a hell of lot more than 10,000 people who get the Essential Worker Participation Trophy in Meck Co, it is in the hundreds of thousands. The numbers just don't hold water.
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How are they testing people in Mecklenburg County? Is there drive through testing? Are they only testing people who are presenting severe symptoms in hospitals? It could just be that there are more infected people out and about than the numbers indicate. It could be that all of those people you see today could be checking into the hospital tomorrow.
 
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