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Non-Political Coronavirus Thread

I love the whole: We Know it's exponential growth, but it's not bad yet arguments. Really shows the value of a liberal arts education. 6th grade was all we really needed. Just send everyone back to 6th grade for a refresher course.
 
I mean this fucker was one person in China like 5 months ago. Can people really not imagine 5 months from now if we just ignore social distancing?
 
palmab03 said:
I mean this fucker was one person in China like 5 months ago. Can people really not imagine 5 months from now if we just ignore social distancing?
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Well said. I don't think people understand that. Right now, the US has 684,920 of those people. My zip code has 41 cases. 41 people in a small area can do a lot of damage. They could be sitting in the same restaurants, touching the same bathroom sinks, sneezing in the same schools. And obviously, we know it's actually more than just 41 people.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
But it is a math problem when gauging the relative response. Using the 1,000 cases and 125 deaths for 220,000 people without social distancing, that is an infection rate of 0.45% and a death rate of 0.06% of total population (which again doesn't even factor in the massive number of of asymptomatic people). By way of comparison, 1.33% of Americans were injured in car wrecks last year, but we aren't limiting families to one car per household to slow the number. The 2019 heart disease death rate across the population was 0.25%, yet we aren't limiting meat consumption. Recognizing that those are different types of incidents, the level of response has also been exponentially different.

And from what I've seen from the "models" of those who purport to "actually understand the disciplines above" their logic seems to be on par with the milkwich forecasters. They were predicting death in the streets unless competent responses were immediately undertaken, and by all account Trump's response has been the opposite of competent, yet the actual numbers are still significantly lower than "those who actually understand the disciplines above" predicted. So no I'm not putting much faith in the accuracy of their understanding or their models, as they clearly don't know shit more than someone throwing darts at the wall.
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You seem focused on typing a lot of words to disprove the news articles you read or see on sensationalist news stations/websites or hear from politicians. Do actual research. Learn actual things. Those politicians and news outlets are looking for a response front the stupid people who can’t think. Don’t be one of those people.
 
WhatUTalkinBout Willis said:
I think the numbers hold water just fine. I think your understanding of epidemiology and virology is flawed.
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I'm missing something in the methodology regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19 and would appreciate clarification.

The anticipated mortality rate for the disease is placed at 1-1.5%.

At present there are 2,224,426 confirmed cases worldwide and there are 153,177 deaths, making the mortality rate for confirmed cases 6.8% at the moment. There are 704,502 confirmed cases in the USA with 36,507 deaths resulting in a 5.2% mortality rate.

The mortality rate for resolved (recovered + deaths) cases at present is 21.1% worldwide and 38.5% in the USA.

Please explain the methodology of epidemiology and/or virology that would indicate the estimate a 1-1.5% mortality rate.

Thanks to all who choose to respond.
 
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BlackjackMc said:
I'm missing something in the methodology regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19 and would appreciate clarification.

The anticipated mortality rate for the disease is place at 1-1.5%.

At present there are 2,224,426 confirmed cases worldwide and there are 153,177 deaths, making the mortality rate for confirmed cases 6.8% at the moment. There are 704,502 confirmed cases in the USA with 36,507 deaths resulting in a 5.2% mortality rate.

The mortality rate for resolved (recovered + deaths) cases at present is 21.1% worldwide and 38.5% in the USA.

Please explain the methodology of epidemiology and/or virology that would indicate the estimate a 1-1.5% mortality rate.

Thanks to all who choose to respond.
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Pretty simple, really. It is an accepted fact that the numbers for confirmed cases is far, far smaller than the number of actual cases. Therefore the denominator of the mortality rate fraction is much larger, resulting in a much smaller mortality percentage.
 
Mortality rate is deaths over total cases. We have a pretty good idea in deaths (though it’s likely slightly undercounted). Given how many patients are asymptomatic, the number of total cases is likely FAR higher than what is counted. That is why the likely mortality rate is lower than what is actually counted.
 
Scooter and BeachBum, thanks for your response. I understand and accept both of those concepts. Unfortunately, they are not methodology as used by an epidemiologist or a virologist. The estimates are based on calculations. I'm missing steps to those calculations and am searching answers.
 
Non political. Lol. A national crisis this large. Nice one.
 
palmab03 said:
I love the whole: We Know it's exponential growth, but it's not bad yet arguments. Really shows the value of a liberal arts education. 6th grade was all we really needed. Just send everyone back to 6th grade for a refresher course.
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JuiceCrewAllStar said:
you keep saying that, but...
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Liquid Karma said:
No, you understand counting just fine.
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Okay, let's take it back to sixth grade and make it as simple as possible so you can follow along. I'll show my work, you show yours (and by yours I mean yours, not a copy and paste from someone else).

We start with 5 people with the virus. 2 are symptomatic and 3 are asymptomatic. So that is a 40% infection rate.

Now let's run it exponentially for 3 cycles: 2x2x2=8. 3x3x3=27. That is an infection rate of 23%.

The asymptomatic are growing exponentially as well. So as long as the asymptomatic rate starts higher than the symptomatic rate, the total infection rate will drop over time as both sets grow exponentially.

Which goes to my point about the Mecklenburg County numbers given the lack of social distancing. They indicate that, at least here, the asymptomatic rate is much higher than the symptomatic rate. Because otherwise, the number of serious cases would have grown much faster.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Which goes to my point about the Mecklenburg County numbers given the lack of social distancing. They indicate that, at least here, the asymptomatic rate is much higher than the symptomatic rate. Because otherwise, the number of serious cases would have grown much faster.
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There is not a lack of social distancing in Mecklenburg Co. You’ve made this up in your mind because you don’t like Governor Cooper. I already provided you data showing that Mecklenburg Co is doing a good job of social distancing. Yes, I realize you have anecdotes...
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
I understand math just fine.
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