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NFL 2020-2021 Season Superbowl LV: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, QB Tom Brady Champs!

some guys make big leaps in their last year: Burrow, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady are some guys that did much better their last year of college

hard to boil out all the various factors of playing weaker/tougher competition -- don't know anything about BYU's OL or weapons
 
I don't get the Zach Wilson love. This season where he had a much easier schedule he threw 33/3 for 3692. Last year when he played a tougher schedule with Power 5 opponents, he threw 11/9 for 2382. He either progressed significantly over one season or the easier schedule made him look much better. His arm strength doesn't impress me.

What am I missing?

That's the question on Wilson. It wasn't BYU's fault, but because they are an independent and few OOC games were played, but Wilson played a ridiculously easy schedule, and his team, particularly his OL, was loaded. So, it's really hard to know how good Wilson is when he faced Navy, Troy and North Alabama. Also, Wilson's worst game came against Coastal, who was a very good non-power conference team, but it's not like the Chaunts defense is filled with future NFL players. Wilson did what he was supposed to do; he shredded bad teams. Really hard to know what the means against NFL competition.

FWIW, seems insane to me that Wilson is considered a better prospect than Justin Fields. In two years against top competition, Field threw for 63 TDs and 9 picks. He was rated closely behind Trevor Lawrence all year, and played great against Clemson's defense, which is loaded with future NFL talent. Starting to hear rumors that Fields may go to either the Jets at #2 or the 49ers at #3.
 
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I don't get why Wilson is getting so much love despite a weak schedule, but Trask is getting punished for a weak schedule. And either above Fields makes no sense unless they're punishing Fields for being a tOSU QB.
 
Wilson really passed the eye test this season. I think Simms said he likes Wilson more than Lawrence. I've never liked Trask and think Pitts made him look better than he was. Trask really struggled that game he was missing Pitts. Of the day 2 QBs, I like Mond better than Trask. Simms gave Mond a day 1 grade, fwiw.

Fields would have been better off not playing this past year, and it's a credit to him that he led the charge for the B-10 to play. He struggled against Bama and Indiana but was atrocious against NWern. I heard 1 commentator say NWern did to him what NE did to Goff in the SB by giving different looks pre-snap and then playing a different coverage. This has me wondering whether that is something fixable or will he continue to be confused by great DCs at the next level like Darnold and Goff have been. Another thing sports talking heads have said is he's played in a college offense that doesn't translate to the pros because he rarely has to go through progressions. Not to say he can't, just that he hasn't had to. And Simms was saying this morning that he doesn't like Fields' throwing motion with the way he sticks his elbow out. So to me, Fields has the lowest floor of these 5, that being a more athletic version of Darnold or Goff. But he also may have the highest ceiling.

The QB I'm rooting for the most and hope he ends up on a team I like is Lance, and I'll be pissed if NE gets him.
 
Wow, if they are holding the NW game against Fields that is really suspect. tOSU had been ravaged by COVID at that point, including missing tOSU's best receiver Chris Olave and a couple starting OL; IIRC, going to the NW game, tOSU had 13 players out because of COVID. Also, BYU didn't play a defense anything close to NW's. Also, if Wilson passes the eye test, why doesn't Fields pass the eye test? Fields is slightly bigger, faster and their arms are comparable.

Barring catastrophic injury, will be happy to compare Fields versus Wilson in 10 years.
 
A more athletic Darnold or Goff is at worst a more athletic version of two NFL starting QBs. That's a pretty good floor. Wilson's floor is Johnny Manziel and Lance's floor is like Paxton Lynch.
 
I think Atlanta is delusional if Fields falls to them and they don't take him. Pitts is more of a sure thing, but they are staring down the barrel of a full rebuild/overhaul. You have the 4th pick, and even though 3 QB's are likely to go ahead of you, I feel like you have to take a chance on Fields (not so much Jones or Lance). There will be plenty of time to get elite pass catchers in future drafts.

That said, if a Panthers' division foe doesn't want to take this opportunity to snag a QB with a high ceiling, I'd be perfectly fine with that. They can wade through the desert with no QB after Ryan is gone and Pitts can wander downfield aimlessly as they trade future picks to put themselves in a position to draft someone that can throw to him...the same position they're in this year.
 
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A more athletic Darnold or Goff is at worst a more athletic version of two NFL starting QBs. That's a pretty good floor. Wilson's floor is Johnny Manziel and Lance's floor is like Paxton Lynch.

That's why this QB class is superior to that 5 QB class from a few years back. All 5 this year look like hits, at least to the extent that all 5 will turn into starters for multiple years. But you're doing Wilson and Lance a disservice with the Manziel and Lynch comparisons. Their floors are much higher than those 2 guys. And this is also why I'm disappointed Tepper and Rhule would rather have a mediocre vet over any of these rookies. I see all 5 having better careers than Darnold, although I admit to being anti-Darnold the year he came out and liked him least of those 5.

Pilch, I hear you, and Mel agrees with you. But Chris Simms disagrees with you. Of the 2, and even though I hail from Mel country, I trust Simms more when it comes to QB rankings. And I watched the NWern game, and Fields had an awful day, though I get they were down some folks due to covid. I also get why that game gives scouts pause over his ability to react to pre and post snap changes. And this is why some scouts say Fields has the lowest floor and highest ceiling of any of these 5. And that's why Wilson is going #2 to NYJ - he's seen as the safer choice. And I think he'll be really good there if Douglass brings in some nice pieces around him.
 
I think Atlanta is delusional if Fields falls to them and they don't take him. Pitts is more of a sure thing, but they are staring down the barrel of a full rebuild/overhaul. You have the 4th pick, and even though 3 QB's are likely to go ahead of you, I feel like you have to take a chance on Fields (not so much Jones or Lance). There will be plenty of time to get elite pass catchers in future drafts.

That said, if a Panthers' division fo doesn't want to take this opportunity to snag a QB with a high ceiling, I'd be perfectly fine with that. They can wade through the desert with no QB after Ryan is gone and Pitts can wander downfield aimlessly as they trade future picks to put themselves in a position to draft someone that can throw to him...the same position they're in this year.

Word is NDSt ran a similar offense to what Arthur Smith runs, and they're going Lance if they go QB. But pre-draft word can be wrong. Though not trading Ryan makes more sense if you take Lance, who may need to sit a year. The other factor to consider is how many more years Ryan thinks he has. If he wants to play 4-5 more years and still has the arm strength, the better play may be to take Pitts, keep Julio and try to outscore opponents 43-40 for the next couple of years. But it sounds more probable that they take Lance and go for the total rebuild and trade Ryan and Julio in the next year. The problem with trading Ryan is you're not going to get anywhere near the value in return that GB or Seattle will get if and when they trade Rodgers and Wilson. I'm guessing Pittsburgh is Ryan's most logical destination next offseason.
 
Taking Lance and trading Ryan next year for at minimum a 2nd and a 3rd would make plenty of sense.
 
Geno Hayes is dead at age 33. Liver failure apparently associated with OTC painkillers. Leaves behind two kids. That really sucks.
 
Some interesting prop bets for the draft. The # of R1 QBs, WRs and CBs is 4.5 and OL is 6.5 - I'd go O, O, U and U. The O/Us on Pitts 5.5 (U), Sewell 5.5 (O), Lance 6.5 (U), Farley 34.5 (U), Mills 60.5 (slam the U) and Newman 170.5, which is late 5th. And you can bet on who Trevor Lawrence hugs 1st and if he cries.
 
NFL win totals (17 game season):

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook


Arizona Cardinals 8
Atlanta Falcons 7.5
Baltimore Ravens 10.5
Buffalo Bills 11
Carolina Panthers 7.5
Chicago Bears 7.5
Cincinnati Bengals 6.5
Cleveland Browns 10.5
Dallas Cowboys 9.5
Denver Broncos 8.5
Detroit Lions 5
Green Bay Packers N/A N/A N/A
Houston Texans 4.5
Indianapolis Colts 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Kansas City Chiefs 12.5
Las Vegas Raiders 7
Los Angeles Chargers 9
Los Angeles Rams 10.5
Miami Dolphins 9
Minnesota Vikings 8.5
New England Patriots 9
New Orleans Saints 9
New York Giants 7
New York Jets 6.5
Philadelphia Eagles 6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5
San Francisco 49ers 10.5
Seattle Seahawks 9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.5
Tennessee Titans 9
Washington Football Team 8


If the season followed the current Vegas win totals (it won't), the NFL playoffs (14 teams now make it) would look like this.

AFC

#1 Seed: KC AFC West Champs
#2 Seed: Buffalo AFC East Champs
#3 Seed: Baltimore/Browns AFC North Champs
#4 Seed: Colts AFC South Champs

WC #1: Baltimore/Browns tie break loser
WC #2/3: Top two tiebreaker winners from: Chargers, Dolphins, Pats, Titans

NFC

#1 Seed: Bucs NFC South Champs
#2 Seed: Rams/49ers NFC West Champs
#3 Seed: Cowboys NFC East Champs
#4 Seed Vikings NFC North Champs (note the Packers have no projected win total because of the Rodgers situation; if he returns, the Packers will be the division favorite; if not, probably not)

WC #1: Rams/49ers tiebreak loser
WC #2: Seattle
WC #3: New Orleans

The project worst team in the NFL is the Texans; the projected worst team in the NFC is Detroit.
 
What ultimately happens with Rodgers and Watson will greatly affect the numbers. My immediate reaction to those numbers is they really think Dallas is 1.5 games better than WTF? WTF upgraded at QB, had a better draft and has 1 of the best Ds in the game. And I've spent my life hating WTF. First to 9 wins the NFCE, and I still think WTF is the stronger of the 2. Speaking of first to 9, if Rodgers is traded or doesn't play, I don't think a NFCN team even gets to 9. The NFCN has to play the NFCW and the AFCN.

The best U bets are Houston, Philly and Pittsburgh, who has the hardest schedule in the league. I'd probably still take the U on Houston if the number was .5. I like the O on Miami and Zona. TB too given their lack of quality opponents.
 
Like those under plays. All those teams look to be in major regression mode.

Dallas is always overrated. If you simply bet the Cowboys under every year, your bankroll would be swollen.

The problem with WFT is their schedule. Last year, Washington played an unbelievably crappy schedule and took advantage. WFT won 7 games, here are the QBs for the opponents that Washington beat last year:

1. Carson Wentz
2. Andy Dalton/Ben Dinacci (Dalton left the game in the 1st half)
3. Joe Burrow/Ryan Finley (Washington trailed when Burrow left the game)
4. Andy Dalton
5. Ben Roethlisberger (this was their best win, but Pittsburgh's offense was a mess at this point, the Steelers were in a stretch with 4 out of 5 losses including to Cincy without Burrow)
6. Nick Mullens
7. Jalen Hurts/Nate Sudfeld (WFT was behind until Philly inexplicably benched Hurts and played Nate Sudfeld in the 2nd half).

With exception of Ben, all of those QBs are at best fringe NFL starters, and Roethlisberger was struggling at that point to throw the ball more than 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. In 2021, WFT faces a gauntlet of elite NFL QBs in their out of division games because of their 1st place schedule:

1. Brady
2. Mahomes
3. Josh Allen
4. Rodgers (assuming he returns to the Packers)
5. Russell Wilson
6. Herbert
7. Matt Ryan
8. Carr
9. Darnold (OK, that one looks like the 2020 opponent QB)

So, the schedule makes WFT a little iffy. Think the Giants may be improved. Danny Dimes hasn't proved it, but they finally have weapons at receiver and Barclay should be 100%.
 
9 wins would feel right for the Cowboys so I'm sure the 9.5 is the handicap for lots of morons out there betting on "MY BOYS"
 
9 wins would feel right for the Cowboys so I'm sure the 9.5 is the handicap for lots of morons out there betting on "MY BOYS"

Yeah, I was thinking maybe 8-9 for you and WTF. Also think the NYG will be competitive in that 6-8 range. But of the 3, I think WTF had the best offseason.
 
Dak got healthy. That's a pretty good offseason in itself. I think I'm more bullish on Dallas' draft than most, but I understand that my bias could be creeping in there.

Defense still full of ????????? tho and I do give WFT the edge there (obviously)
 
I look forward to Hill and Winston leading the Saints to the playoffs.
 
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