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Covid-19 - Treatments & Vaccines

Anecdotally, friends who had Covid and then were vaccinated later were absolutely floored by the first dose. Which would make sense if the memory response is so strong.
 
Feels like the JNJ data is going to be a massive inflection point in this whole thing. If it gets decent one-shot protection then we will get the riskiest groups inoculated pretty quickly, death rates + hospitalizations will go way down and then eventually overall cases will go down. And i suspect once hospitalizations/deaths drop everything will start opening up
 
J&J vaccine concludes trial. EUA expected soon. 85% effective against the original strain. Not so good against the South African variant. This vaccine can be stored for months in a refrigerator.

Wash Post Report
 
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/01/27/961108577/why-scientists-are-very-worried-about-the-variant-from-brazil?utm_campaign=npr&

Can someone who sciences better than me explain how concerned we should be about this on a scale from “minor speed bump” to “we’re never going back to normal life”?


I think that article is a decent quick overview and offers reasonable estimations.

Its conclusion...


And thus, now we have a game of "cat and mouse," said virus expert Ravi Gupta, between the virus and the vaccine. The virus finds ways around the vaccine (and our immune system), said Gupta, and so the manufacturers have to reformulate the vaccines (or else we run the risk of getting infected twice).

"We've been here before with the flu. We're having to live with influenza and figure out a way of staying ahead of the virus by making vaccines on a yearly basis," said Gupta at the University of Cambridge.

"So I can imagine that we'll be doing something similar with [the] coronavirus. Eventually we'll need to design different vaccines that are targeting different parts of the virus — ones that the virus finds harder to change."

This process is going to cost the world a great deal of money — and take time, Gupta added. "I don't think there's going to be a single solution that just comes along in 2021 that says, 'That's it, we're done.'

"The coronavirus is going to cause a long-term disruption."


What’s happening in Manaus is highly worrisome.

And, to me, highlights partly why our collective efforts need to be international as well as national, regional, and local.
 
I posted on the other thread but Covid-19 and its variants are going to become a circulating never ending, most likely seasonal virus just like the flu. It will kill people, probably at or slightly higher than flu levels every year. Everyone will get booster shots/new variant strains vaccine just like a flu shot. Over time its possible a bi-valent, tri-valent, and so forth vaccine or universal vaccine is developed that prevents all possible variants (essentially whats been looked for with flu for decades, a universal flu vaccine). It may be easier to generate for covid because they are variants and not different strains (essentially the amount that they differ is less).

Once everyone is vaccinated you will be afforded some protection, maybe you get sick but not really bad, maybe you don't get sick at all just depends on the person, and then the rare person sick enough to be hospitalized but an acceptable risk. Also people really love to look at antibody neutralization but thats one immune cell of many, hence why you most likely wont get as sick even if you aren't afforded complete protection.
 
I posted on the other thread but Covid-19 and its variants are going to become a circulating never ending, most likely seasonal virus just like the flu. It will kill people, probably at or slightly higher than flu levels every year. Everyone will get booster shots/new variant strains vaccine just like a flu shot. Over time its possible a bi-valent, tri-valent, and so forth vaccine or universal vaccine is developed that prevents all possible variants (essentially whats been looked for with flu for decades, a universal flu vaccine). It may be easier to generate for covid because they are variants and not different strains (essentially the amount that they differ is less).

Once everyone is vaccinated you will be afforded some protection, maybe you get sick but not really bad, maybe you don't get sick at all just depends on the person, and then the rare person sick enough to be hospitalized but an acceptable risk. Also people really love to look at antibody neutralization but thats one immune cell of many, hence why you most likely wont get as sick even if you aren't afforded complete protection.

Why is this? Why are COVID variants just "variants" but the flu has different "strains"?
 
Its kind of just really semantics, people that deal in evolutionary biology get all technical about what they consider the definition of strain and variant and such. So it gets complicated when people are like X amount of mutations means its a new strain while less is a new variant, where others define it based off of functionality, so if there is a phenotypic change to the virus then its a new strain as opposed to a new variant. If you use the later definition then you technically could call something like the Covid-19 South African variant a new Covid-19 strain as its change the phenotypic aspect of the virus.

If you use the simplistic definition that Covid-19 is a coronavirus strain from the coronavirus family in the idea of SARS, MERS, SARS-Cov2 are strains, and then anything varying in enough mutations from the original Covid-19 strain is a Covid-19 variant, then its simply its harder for a coronavirus to mutate than a flu virus. Coronaviruses have proofreading RNA to fix mutations, slower mutation rate, and are single stranded. Flu virus is segmented meaning large segments can be exchanged between strains/small segments can incorporate so more variation.

TL/DR: Coronavirus is more stable than flu, the definition of variant and strain is just made up, Flu circulates with what could be considered almost different species, Flu A, Flu B, etc.., would be like if SARS-Cov-2 was circulating with MERS, SARS and you wanted a vaccine to prevent all of them.
 
Why is this? Why are COVID variants just "variants" but the flu has different "strains"?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...-what-s-happened-to-the-coronavirus-1.5245923

"Soucy said in a telephone interview on Sunday that variant is the correct term to use when classifying a known virus that has developed a "specific group of mutations" that causes the variant to behave differently than that of the strain it originated from.

"A strain of a virus has distinct properties and a particular immune response. Then there's going to be lots and lots of variants which will be, in many cases, minor accumulations of mutations and different kind of genetic lines of that strain," Soucy said."

There's more about this in the article.
 
Its kind of just really semantics, people that deal in evolutionary biology get all technical about what they consider the definition of strain and variant and such. So it gets complicated when people are like X amount of mutations means its a new strain while less is a new variant, where others define it based off of functionality, so if there is a phenotypic change to the virus then its a new strain as opposed to a new variant. If you use the later definition then you technically could call something like the Covid-19 South African variant a new Covid-19 strain as its change the phenotypic aspect of the virus.

If you use the simplistic definition that Covid-19 is a coronavirus strain from the coronavirus family in the idea of SARS, MERS, SARS-Cov2 are strains, and then anything varying in enough mutations from the original Covid-19 strain is a Covid-19 variant, then its simply its harder for a coronavirus to mutate than a flu virus. Coronaviruses have proofreading RNA to fix mutations, slower mutation rate, and are single stranded. Flu virus is segmented meaning large segments can be exchanged between strains/small segments can incorporate so more variation.

TL/DR: Coronavirus is more stable than flu, the definition of variant and strain is just made up, Flu circulates with what could be considered almost different species, Flu A, Flu B, etc.., would be like if SARS-Cov-2 was circulating with MERS, SARS and you wanted a vaccine to prevent all of them.

Doesn't part of the complexity of the Flu strains have to do with the fact that it jumps back and forth between Humans and pigs? I.e., it jumped from humans to pigs in the 1920's then from pigs back to Humans in the 1960's and that was a new strain because the virus differentiated from the original flu over 4 decades in the pig populations. That Pigs to Human jump has happened a few times so now we have Fau strains A (the original) B (the 60's jump) and C (the 2009 swine flu). Meanwhile human Flus evolve linearly over space and time to create annual variants, so for example Flu strain A has variation over time. Basically when it jumps to another species, it continues the temporal evolution over the years so that when it jumps back it has changed enough to be a new "strain". We are not seeing jumps from humans to other species and back again to create strains for COVID, yet, but given time it will happen. We've already seen evidence that Coronaviruses are vary capable of jumping the species barrier, that's how we got it in the first place.
 
Yeah you are talking about antigenic drift vs antigenic shift. Drift is the regular occurrence of mutations that accumulate to create variation simply from random mutations and selective pressures. Antigenic drift is from reassortment that can occur when two different species of flu mix during an infection. Like you said a human flu infection occurring in a pig the same time as a swine flu infection, or a swine infection occurring with an avian flu, that then goes back to a pig, then human and so forth. The entire genome can get reassembled so that while it is flu entire strands are of different origins. That is always the fear of pandemic flu and how it will occur. In comparison its easier in flu than coronaviruses because flu genomes are segments in comparison to single stranded so it looks something like this.

Flu (Entire segments easily swaped)
_________________
______________
____________
__________
________
______
____
__

Coronavirus (need breaks and rearrangement)

_________________________________________________________________
 
tweet is a few days old and calling the EU a country is not advisable, but point still stands

 
using the CDC vaccination tracker, we currently have

26.4 million with a 1st dose
6.1 million with two doses

20 million distributed (to states) but not administered vaccines

we're currently averaging roughly (daily, based on 7-day average):

950,000 1st doses
370,000 2nd doses

If we maintain the pace for 1st doses, and ramp up 2nd dose administration so that we're averaging 660,000 2nd doses per day by the end of February (so totaling 1.6 million shots per day by then), at that point we'll have roughly

51 million with a 1st dose
18 million with both doses

there are, round numbers, 54 million Americans >65 and another 20 million healthcare workers. Accounting for vaccine hesitancy, at that point we'll be in the ballpark to have given a first dose to everyone in those groups who will take one. And by then hopefully J&J is online and distributing some one-shot vaccines.

ETA: some states are apparently vaccinating teachers right now; others are not - I excluded them in the rough calculations above, but you get the point. In states where teachers are in the same group as >65, we won't be there by end of February.
 
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UK is starting trial of "mixed vaccines." Trial is giving either Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine as the first shot, then the other as the second. It will be interesting to see how immunity from either of these regimes compares to two doses of the same vaccine.

The two vaccines use different technologies. Pfizer vaccine is an mRNA vaccine. The AstraZeneca vaccine uses an inactivated adenovirus as its base.

In rare cases, U.S. allows mixing of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for first and second shots. Both are mRNA vaccines.

The US FDA has not yet approved the AstraZeneca vaccine. Approval is waiting for more data from the clinical trial.
 
Johnson & Johnson submitted application for approval of their Covid vaccine today. FDA Advisory Committee will meet to review it on Feb 26.

FDA approval should happen in early March.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/04/jj-vaccine-fda/

Pretty ridiculous that it'll take them over three weeks after submission to review. What could they possibly have in their schedule the next three weeks that's more important than a COVID vaccine review?
 
Pretty ridiculous that it'll take them over three weeks after submission to review. What could they possibly have in their schedule the next three weeks that's more important than a COVID vaccine review?

The Advisory Committee is composed of experts from around the country. They have day jobs. Like Dean, Chicago Medical School. The roster is here:

https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee/roster-vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee

The meeting to discuss the Pfizer vaccine held on Dec 10 was announced Nov 20. Three weeks are needed to review and digest the mountain of material in the application.
 
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